Cavonometry Games 7 and 8: Extreme Team!

Nov 15, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) interacts with the fans after blocking a shot against the Atlanta Hawks in the third quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Nothing that had happened prior in the 2014-15 season for the Cleveland Cavaliers prepared anyone for the extremes that were about to take place in Games 7 and 8.

*A road game at Boston saw the Cavs play at an all-out sprint compared to the slow, plodding style that had characterized early action. Cleveland had 102 offensive possessions, compared to a regulation average near 90 in their prior six outings. Tortoise to hare in a finger snap.

*What surely should have been a home fatigue spot in Game 8 at home against Atlanta instead ignited one of the most amazing three-point shooting displays the league has ever seen. Tired legs? Ha! Cleveland shot a stunning 19 of 31 from behind the arc. That 61.3 percent success rate is the same as hitting 92 percent on two-pointers! Cleveland had been averaging 7.7 makes per game on 36 percent shooting entering the night.

If Commissioner Adam Silver’s wishes for legal betting on NBA games comes to fruition, you’re going to be trying to anticipate stuff like that!

Let’s run the numbers…

Cleveland 122, Boston 121

Two-Point Percentages: Cleveland 56%, Boston 62%

Three-Pointers: Cleveland 8/23, Boston 6/20

Free Throws: Cleveland 28/37, Boston 19/23

Rebounds: Cleveland 40, Boston 39

Turnovers: Cleveland 11, Boston 14

In an earlier game, I ran a listing of all the different guys who shot great on two-pointers against the Cavs. I was about to do that here. But, it’s just easier to point out that Boston was 42 of 68 on deuces, with Rajon Rondo only managing 3 of 10. So, everyone not named Rondo was 39 of 58! That’s 67 percent on twos for Sullinger-Green-Olynyk-Bradley-Bass-Zeller-Thornton-Turner, all of whom shot five to eight deuces except for Sullinger, who tried 11. Basically a well-balanced layup drill run by a non-playoff team in the weaker of the two NBA conferences.

All that and Boston still couldn’t win because LeBron James donned his cape again and went 16 of 27 from the floor with 7 assists. And, then Kyrie Irving put on his cape (while probably saying “don’t you dare call me Robin”) and helped inspire a 38-20 fourth quarter that brought the Cavs back from 17 down entering the final stanza.

If you’re a Cleveland fan…a win is a win, and you still get the sense that James has a chance to soar higher and express more physicality than he has to this point. Fans have seen him put on the cape…they haven’t really seen him fly yet. But, the team negatives are still so obvious.

*Poor Defense

*Inconsistent Offensive Teamwork

*Poor Bench

Cleveland’s bench was outscored 44-20, able to contribute only 66 minutes in a track meet played at breakneck speed.

Basically, the LAST thing you need on night one of a back-to-back. And, then this happened…

Cleveland 127, Atlanta 94

Two-Point Percentages: Atlanta 54%, Cleveland 51%

Three-Pointers: Atlanta 3/22, Cleveland 19/31

Free Throws: Atlanta 11/13, Cleveland 10/13

Rebounds: Atlanta 37, Cleveland 47

Turnovers: Atlanta 18, Cleveland 13

It would be easy to assume that a huge night from long range meant that Kevin Love finally had a big game from the field. Wrong! Love was 3 of 7 on treys. Nothing wrong with that…but it actually hurt the percentage in a game where all other Cavs were 16 of 24 behind the arc.

Once the treys started falling, there was little chance this was going to be a game. Cleveland was up by 16 points after the first quarter, then by 28 at the half. Plus 16 in makes and +48 in trey scoring makes everything else moot. A lot of guys in capes here. Something that extreme can’t be overcome. It also makes boxscore whispering a relative waste of time because so few games have such a big outlier trumping everything else so dramatically.

The league has now seen what Cleveland is capable of offensively when the stars align. There are still issues on defense.

Let’s update some of our running storylines…

Deja’ View: Cavs of 2014-15 vs. Heat of 2010-11 (thru 8 games)

Miami 5-3 (+11.3 margin average)

Cleveland 5-3 (+3.8 margin average)

Though it still feels like there are serious issues defensively and with a questionable bench…the 2014-15 Cavaliers have now posted a big result that would suggest greatness is within reach. They’ve matched the won-lost record of LeBron’s first Heat team through eight games. And, there’s a monster blowout over a decent team on the resume. We already know that those Heat were 9-8 through 17 games with a margin average just over six. Cleveland can get there from here.

Assists/Made Baskets by Game

22 assists on 32 baskets vs. New York (69%)

18 assists on 41 baskets at Chicago (44%)

18 assists on 31 baskets at Portland (58%)

6 assists on 30 baskets at Utah (20%)

25 assists on 40 baskets at Denver (63%)

27 assists on 40 baskets vs. New Orleans (68%)

22 assists on 43 baskets at Boston (51%)

39 assists on 49 baskets vs. Atlanta (80%)

Tricky here. The numbers clearly suggest more teamwork in the last four games than in the first four. Impossible to miss that. But, it’s also impossible to miss what’s looking like some extreme “stat inflation” with assist counts in Cleveland’s home games. Running them in chronological order…

Road Percentages: 44, 58, 20, 63, 51 (47.2 average, 51 median)

Home Percentages: 69, 68, 80 (72.3 average, 69 median)

The worst Cleveland home count is above the best road count. And, the averages and medians looks like they’re from different planets. It’s the same guys playing offense! That’s something we’ll have to pay attention to as the season progresses. Trying to evaluate Cleveland’s teamwork gets dicier if a liberal definition is being over-used at home.

Waiters Waiting for Minutes

After not playing in Game 6 vs. New Orleans, Dion Waiters at least made it back on the floor. I decided to put this in the mix as something to monitor after Waiters only played 17 minutes in Boston. The blowout vs. Atlanta allowed everyone from the Cavs bench to get more playing time. That pushed Waiters up to 27 minutes vs. the Hawks.

Waiters as a starter: 36, 26, 28 minutes (30 average, 28 median)

Since being benched: 13, 24, 0, 17, 27 minutes (16.2 average, 17 median)

You get the sense from that trend and LeBron’s body language that Waiters is the guy James would most like to trade tomorrow if he were the general manager. But, to Dion’s credit, he did have eight assists while taking only 11 shots in extended garbage time vs. the Hawks. Maybe he’s starting to buy in. Or, maybe assists just fall from the heavens in Cleveland.

Market Report (thru 8 games)

Cleveland (-13) lost to New York 95-90 (missed by 18)

Cleveland (+4) won at Chicago 114-108 (covered by 4 in regulation, 10 on the night)

Cleveland (-2.5) lost at Portland 101-82 (missed by 21.5)

Cleveland (-5.5) lost at Utah 102-100 (missed by 7.5)

Cleveland (-6.5) won at Denver 110-101 (covered by 2.5)

Cleveland (-5.5) won vs. New Orleans 118-111 (covered by 1.5)

Cleveland (-6) won at Boston 122-121 (missed by 5)

Cleveland (-7) won vs. Atlanta 127-94 (covered by 26)

That’s a 4-4 record against the spread. At the end of regulation, market expectations have been too high by 18 points through 8 games. Things are obviously looking up in the second half of that hunk…with a 3-1 ATS mark and a composite cover of 25 points thanks to the Atlanta rout.

I mentioned that the Cleveland/Boston game was played at breakneck speed. You can see that on the “Team Possession Stats” pages here at Nylon Calculus. (The 104 in the Chicago game includes overtime…which usually adds roughly 10 offensive and defensive possessions per team.) The link uses Cleveland as a default because the material will show up often in Cavonometry. But, it’s easy for you to check on the other 29 teams using the scroll option. Nylon Calculus is the only source presenting ACTUAL possession counts, rather than estimates. A small but important step forward in analytics, where the goal is always to get it right!

(Fun little exercise if you have a second. Remember when Dion Waiters was benched after the first three games? Look at Cleveland’s offensive efficiency marks from Game Four onward. It’s been a fireworks show on a per-possession basis since the lineup change).

Our next edition of Cavonometry will go up midday Thursday…and will cover Cleveland’s Monday rematch with the Denver Nuggets (Game Nine), and the much anticipated national TV showdown Wednesday Night at home against the defending league champion San Antonio Spurs (Game 10). Note that San Antonio is not in a back-to-back that night, with their lead-in being a Monday night home scrimmage against lowly Philadelphia. Will be a lot of fun if Spurs/Cavs can live up to the media hype you’ll be seeing between now and then.

These last two games showed there’s really no way to know for sure how this extreme transitional version of the Cavaliers is going to perform in the biggest test of the young season.