Fansided

ShotCaller: So Far To Go

By Matt D'Anna

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Graham Detonator

It’s the fourth installment of this ShotCaller prediction series, so by now — you know the rules:

During the 1st half of the New York Knicks 12th game of the year, against the Milwaukee Bucks on November 18th, Carmelo Anthony is expected to take 11 total shots: 7 in the 1st quarter and 4 in the 2nd quarter. These shots are expected to occur within each of the orange (1st quarter) and blue (2nd quarter) ovals.

How did we get here?

For the 1st quarter, here’s some of the rules we’re working off of:

  • Last game (Saturday versus Denver) Melo took 5 shots; he’s done exactly that 132 times previously
  • In 100 of those 132 occasions (76%), he increases his shot count the following game
  • The mean increase (as well as the mode value) in Melo’s next game: 2 shots

All this, in addition to a fairly clean positive-negative game-to-game rotation, points to an increase to 7 shots next game.

As for the 2nd quarter, consider the following:

  • Over the course of his regular season career (at 800 games and counting), Melo’s average 2nd quarter shot count is 4
  • In each of the last four games, Melo has taken 4 2nd quarter shots
  • Melo’s mean difference between 1st and 2nd quarter shot counts: 3
  • Melo’s career 1st half mean shot total is 10, and it’s trending upwards this season

Thus, 4 is the magic number. By quarter, here’s what that looks like:

As for the locations — not much new, as I continue to test the predictability of fusing three unique sets of Melo’s Hunting Grounds:

  • Career 1st and 2nd quarters
  • Last season 1st and 2nd quarter vs. Bucks
  • This season’s 1st and 2nd quarters

The intersections results in this:

After this game, I’ll be four predictions deep; as promised, I will start a comprehensive review of these predictions (with a newly created metric!). Stay tuned later this week for more. For now, here’s what the Bucks should plan for:

Until next time… Shots. Called.

Data and photo support provided courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball-Reference.com, and data extraordinaire Darryl Blackport.

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