Watch out Eastern Conference, the Young Milwaukee Bucks are Here
By Jacob Rosen
Nov 16, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Brandon Knight (11) reacts after making a three point shot as center Larry Sanders (8) runs up court against the Miami Heat in the second half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports
Fear the Deer is back. In a season littered with dozens of storylines already, the young Milwaukee Bucks are playing elite defense, using a bizarrely deep rotation and showing signs of basketball life again after the worst season in franchise history.
Expectations were low in 2014-15 for the Bucks, which is certainly not a common sight for any Eastern Conference team not named Philadelphia. But the low expectations were for one singularly spectacular reason: They just were a dreadful 15-67 last year. That was worse than the 76ers, worse than the Orlando Magic, worse than the teams that got beat up in the West and worse than everyone. It was five games worse than any season in the franchise’s 46-year history.
Enter, new owners Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry. Enter, the obvious draft selection of Jabari Parker, a nearby Chicago product who even campaigned himself to go to Milwaukee. Enter, stolen Jason Kidd to replace Larry Drew as head coach. Enter, further rotation-building additions of Jeryd Bayless, Jared Dudley and Kendall Marshall. Enter, talk of a new arena for the city.
Did many expect the Bucks to be much better after all this hullabaloo? Not particularly, no. Stats projections (via Nathan Walker) pegged Milwaukee with an average of 26.1 victories, ahead of only the 76ers, Lakers and Magic. ESPN’s Bradford Doolitle had them even below the Magic at only 23 wins. Nobody appeared to be particularly enthralled by their offseason.
Well, it turns out we should have been. The Bucks are 6-5 overall, 4-1 at home, and look like a legitimate threat to steal one of the very available Eastern Conference playoff spots. They’ve played a fairly soft schedule, but still busted out impressive wins over the Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat. They held on for dear life to beat the New York Knicks last night. The Bucks appear to be for real.
Let’s look at four of the top reasons why this might be happening:
1) The defense: Add up a seventh-place ranking in opponent effective field goal percentage, a seventh-place ranking in opponent turnover percentage and you get the NBA’s fifth-best defensive rating at 101.8. The ranking was third before Tuesday’s shootout. Prior to then, they ranked third in opponent shooting efficiency in the restricted area, third in other two-point shots and even ninth in three-pointers. They were fourth in eFG% allowed.
All of this comes a season after the Bucks finished dead last with a 111.7 DRTG. Opponents shot 38.2 percent from deep last year against Milwaukee and that mark is now 34.2 percent. Whenever any East team plays this solid of defense, they’ll have a playoff shot. And although he’s not on the wings, a big reason for this shocking improvement is the return of…
2) LARRY SANDERS! He missed Tuesday’s game, an obvious explanation for the defensive slip. But NBA Twitter’s forgotten favorite shot-blocker was as good as ever in the first 10 games. In averaging a healthy 22.4 minutes per game, he posted a line of 6.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and a jaw-dropping 1.5 steals. The early rim protection stats are promising. He’s helping to make up for the lack of defensive talent elsewhere on the roster. Per NBA.com/stats, the team’s DRTG has been 10 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. Recall that he only played 23 games last year amid health and conduct issues. He turns only 26 years old Friday. Sanders signed his big extension last summer, but he’s now re-inserting his name into the Defensive Player of the Year conversation with this hot start.
3) Brandon Knight’s improvement: The lead scorer for the Bucks still is only 22 years old. He turns 23 in two more weeks. And he is another forgotten still-improving piece on this roster. Moving from Milwaukee to Detroit last season, his usage rate jumped from the low 20s to 26.8 percent. His efficiency was essentially the same, which shows progress, but his long-term potential still seemed hazy. Nobody quite knew what he could be. So far this year, he’s posting career highs in defensive rebounding, assists, steals and shooting efficiency, all at a steady 27.3 percent usage. He made some ballsy plays against Memphis. Will the efficiency continue? This one might be more doubtful. But playing off Bayless, Parker [1. I’ll always think of the 2014 Draft as the Jabari Parker-Andrew Wiggins debate. I spilled thousands of words on draft analytics and more over at WFNY. Parker’s collegiate offense was quite impressive indeed. Layne Vashro’s projection gave him a much more likely long-term future as a solid rotation player, at minimum, compared to the riskier Wiggins.] and the Greek god of limbs Giannis Antetokounmpo [2. On Giannis: He’s not that good yet. There’s a reason why I didn’t write that much about him. He’s a really, really fun prospect and oh god, he’s probably still growing and can do things only Kevin Durant can do with a basketball. But as of now, he’s pretty mediocre. He’s also turning 20 soon. So be patient here, folks.] appears to be making life easier for Knight offensively.
4) Deep rotations: Almost every game, there’s a new hero for Milwaukee. In total, 11 players have at least 129 minutes played in just 11 games. They’re the NBA’s lone team with only two players (Knight and Parker) averaging 25-plus minutes per game. Zaza Pachulia has re-emerged with his hustle and playmaking abilities. Ersan Ilyasova is healthy again and scored 20 points on 10 shots off the bench last night. Khris Middleton is an underappreciated bench piece that could be useful on most any team. O.J. Mayo isn’t pouting anymore. This rotation also includes John Henson, but doesn’t include Nate Wolters, who started 31 games last season, or Kendall Marshall, who led the league in assist rate with Mike D’Antoni’s Lakers. They’re emphasizing defense and length, and although they aren’t shooting well yet, the pieces are in place for continued improvement on both sides. They’re making up for youth with a splash of experience, a heavy dosage of versatility and some good old-fashioned defense.
Sure, the Bucks will slip soon as the schedule gets more difficult. Injury risk remains a question mark for several of their key contributors. Jason Kidd wasn’t that good last year with his pretty talented Brooklyn Nets squad, so the jury is still out there on him. This roster doesn’t really have that many talented shooters and is way more intriguing than complete by any means.
But the Milwaukee Bucks are likely to have one of the largest year-over-year win improvements in the entire NBA. They’ve joined the conversation of potential playoff headaches in the East, awaiting a power like Cleveland or Chicago. They’re going to be in that up-and-coming playoff conversation for a long time to come. And the potential is there for more in the future.