Cavonometry Games 9 and 10: Woes vs. the West

Nov 19, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) watches after losing the ball to San Antonio Spurs guard Manu Ginobili (20) in the final seconds at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

The last time we were together, we reviewed two straight victories for the Cleveland Cavaliers against Eastern Conference foes. A nail-biter in Boston. Then, a three-point fireworks show against Atlanta. The Cavs had moved to 5-3 for the season, and were starting to look like the team many had expected to see when the 2014-15 campaign started.

Then a couple of Western Conference teams came to visit…

Cleveland lost home games Monday and Wednesday to Denver and San Antonio respectively. That brought their won-lost record to 2-4 vs. the West even though they were favored by the well informed betting markets to win in all six games!

Let’s take them in the order they were played…

Denver 106, Cleveland 97

Two-Point Percentages: Denver 54%, Cleveland 48%

Three-Pointers: Denver 12/31, Cleveland 10/29

Free Throws: Denver 12/15, Cleveland 19/23

Rebounds: Denver 39, Cleveland 42

Turnovers: Denver 15, Cleveland 15

LeBron James was reportedly battling a cold. The whole team seemed to be battling overconfidence because they had already defeated the Nuggets earlier this season on the road. On a per-possession basis, this was their worst offensive game since benching Dion Waiters (by a mile, as you can see on the team possession pages here at Nylon Calculus that tabulate actual possessions per game for all 30 teams). On defense, the boxscore shows Cleveland allowed a lot of easy buckets inside and a dozen treys.

For those of you who don’t follow Las Vegas (or offshore) pointspreads, Cleveland closed as a favorite of -11.5 points. It was only the second time this season they were double digit favorites. They lost both games outright! Even though it was understood that Cleveland might fail to play to expectations during an early season transitional period…they’re not supposed to lose games like this, or the season opener against now 3-10 New York.

A much better effort was on display Wednesday when the defending World Champion Spurs came to town.

San Antonio 92, Cleveland 90

Two-Point Percentages: San Antonio 52%, Cleveland 46%

Three-Pointers: San Antonio 5/16, Cleveland 7/18

Free Throws: San Antonio 17/25, Cleveland 9/13

Rebounds: San Antonio 42, Cleveland 38

Turnovers: San Antonio 15, Cleveland 16

This had the true feel of a playoff game down the stretch. Both defenses emphasized shutting down marquee players on the other side.

*LeBron James was held to 6 of 17 shooting while turning the ball over five times

*Kevin Love was held to 4 of 12 shooting while turning the ball over twice

*Tony Parker was held to 2 of 7 shooting with only three assists

*Manu Ginobili was held to 3 of 7 shooting

Both defenses made their points of emphasis clear. It was up to other players to pick up the scoring slack. Anderson Varejao did it for the Cavs with 23 points on 11 of 16 shooting. Tim Duncan and Boris Diaw did the heavy lifting for the Spurs as they tried to exploit Cleveland’s soft underbelly.

That soft underbelly continues to be a big issue for Cleveland’s potential championship hopes. More aggressively trying to force turnovers has helped alleviate the issue some. But, it’s very hard to be considered a legitimate championship threat when almost everyone you face is going to shoot better than 50 percent inside the arc. Take a look at the two-point percentages from Cleveland’s 10 opponents this season, ordered from low to high (midpoints in parenthesis)…

44-47-52-52-(54-54)-54-57-58-62

NBA teams overall were shooting a composite 49 percent inside the arc entering Wednesday night’s action. Eight of 10 Cleveland opponents have topped 52 percent, and the median opponent is at 54 percent. Note that only four of those 10 opponents reached the playoffs last year.

Maybe Cleveland can get away with that in the weaker Eastern Conference. Their next TEN games will come against the East, as will 19 of their next 23. We’ll gain a much greater sense of how Cleveland rates within its own conference between now and New Year’s. They’ve largely flunked their early tests vs. the West, at least if you’re using the composite expectations of an informed betting market to set expectations.

Updating our running storylines…

Deja’ View: Cavs of 2014-15 vs. Heat of 2010-11 (thru 10 games)

Miami 6-4 (+9.4 margin average)

Cleveland 5-5 (+1.9 margin average)

The home loss to Denver really derailed the team’s shot to make a serious run at Miami’s math. And, the 33-point blowout of Atlanta is starting to look like a distant outlier. Cleveland’s +1.9 margin average is obviously +19 points through 10 games. Therefore the nine-game sum is negative if you take the Hawks result out of the mix. Let’s see what happens in the coming days against a heavy diet of Eastern opposition.

Assists/Made Baskets by Game

22 assists on 32 baskets vs. New York (69%)

18 assists on 41 baskets at Chicago (44%)

18 assists on 31 baskets at Portland (58%)

6 assists on 30 baskets at Utah (20%)

25 assists on 40 baskets at Denver (63%)

27 assists on 40 baskets vs. New Orleans (68%)

22 assists on 43 baskets at Boston (51%)

39 assists on 49 baskets vs. Atlanta (80%)

18 assists on 34 baskets vs. Denver (53%)

23 assists on 37 baskets vs. San Antonio (62%)

Those last two games have alleviated concerns about home cooking in the numbers. I’ll likely discontinue this particular category unless something assist-related starts to loom large again. Players not sharing the ball just isn’t an issue any more. Anything approximating that 20% monstrosity at Utah would be a big surprise.

Waiters Waiting for Minutes

Dion played 28 and 21 minutes in these last two outings. He’s generally not allowed in the mix when the game is on the line (which you surely noted down the stretch of the Spurs game if you were watching). Interesting that his plus/minus marks this week were actually +2 and +3 even though the Cavs lost both. He’s not killing them off the bench. He certainly seemed to be a monkey wrench as a starter.

This is another category I’ll probably drop for the time being because Waiters’ role is settled. What had been an interesting development is now simply a regular occurrence. If he begins to make his presence felt in a meaningful way, it will surely show up in the game reports. I’ll switch two-point defense into a running category since the team is having such consistent issues in that area.

Market Report (thru 10 games)

Cleveland (-13) lost to New York 95-90 (missed by 18)

Cleveland (+4) won at Chicago 114-108 (covered by 4 in regulation, 10 on the night)

Cleveland (-2.5) lost at Portland 101-82 (missed by 21.5)

Cleveland (-5.5) lost at Utah 102-100 (missed by 7.5)

Cleveland (-6.5) won at Denver 110-101 (covered by 2.5)

Cleveland (-5.5) won vs. New Orleans 118-111 (covered by 1.5)

Cleveland (-6) won at Boston 122-121 (missed by 5)

Cleveland (-7) won vs. Atlanta 127-94 (covered by 26)

Cleveland (-11.5) lost to Denver 106-97 (missed by 20.5)

Cleveland (-1.5) lost to San Antonio 92-90 (missed by 3.5)

The Cavs have a 4-6 record against the spread. At the end of regulation, market expectations have been too high by 42 points through 10 games.

Because the overall theme today was about struggles vs. the West, let’s just grab those games for a moment…

Cleveland (-2.5) lost at Portland 101-82 (missed by 21.5)

Cleveland (-5.5) lost at Utah 102-100 (missed by 7.5)

Cleveland (-6.5) won at Denver 110-101 (covered by 2.5)

Cleveland (-5.5) won vs. New Orleans 118-111 (covered by 1.5)

Cleveland (-11.5) lost to Denver 106-97 (missed by 20.5)

Cleveland (-1.5) lost to San Antonio 92-90 (missed by 3.5)

Cleveland is 2-4 against the spread vs. the West, with a composite miss of 49 points. They barely played to expectations in the two covers, while missing two other games by more than 20 points.

Where would Cleveland fit in the Western playoff picture? Adjusting for home court value, they grade out as clearly worse than last year’s playoff teams San Antonio and Portland, exactly dead even with Denver (207-207 scoreboard tie), but ahead of New Orleans and Utah. They’d be in the discussion to make the playoffs in the West. They couldn’t currently make a case that they’d be a contender to win the West.

(Something I noticed in LeBron’s game logs that didn’t seem like it quite deserved its own section yet: he was 1 of 1 from the free throw line Wednesday vs. the Spurs, and 1 of 1 in the loss to Portland. So, he wasn’t attacking the basket well…or being allowed to attack the basket by the only two Western Conference playoff teams he’s faced this season. His one-game free throw peak this year is 13 of 17 vs. New Orleans. Cleveland could have serious troubles playing to market expectations against quality if LeBron isn’t able to impose his will).

The next edition of Cavonometry will go up midday Sunday…and will cover Cleveland’s Friday night game on the road against the Washington Wizards (Game 11) and then the back-to-back spot at home Saturday vs. the Toronto Raptors (Game 12). Those are Eastern Conference playoff teams from last season, and the boxscores should give us an immediate read on where the Cavs stack up at the moment in the conference they’re aiming to win in the Spring of 2015.