Nylon Notebook: NBA’s Biggest Betting Surprises (thru Nov. 20)

Nov 19, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony (7) looks on during the first half against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The terms “overrated” and “underrated” are used often in sports discussions. You can make the case that those words are most meaningful in the world of pointspreads. By definition, betting market pointspreads reflect how teams are “rated” by a composite that includes evaluators who must make accurate assessments to succeed as oddsmakers or professional wagerers. (NBA lines aren’t influenced much by public betting, particularly in the early stages of a new season when pro and college football command so much media attention.)

A team that’s covering a lot of pointspreads has been underrated by that informed composite. A team that’s covering few pointspreads has been overrated.

Through the games of November 20, the single biggest “surprise” team in market terms in the 2014-15 season has been the New York Knicks. They are 3-10 against the spread (2-9 ATS since that big win at Cleveland, with one of the two covers coming when hosting disinterested Denver in a daytime matinee). The various offensive and defensive issues of the Knicks have been well-documented. Their defense imploded even further in their last two outings…posting a stunningly bad 133.0 efficiency mark in Milwaukee, and a 126.4 mark at Minnesota. League average is 107.0.

Nobody in the NBA has been more overrated thus far than the New York Knicks.

The biggest positive surprises…the two most underrated market teams…have been the Milwaukee Bucks and Dallas Mavericks (click here if you missed Jacob Rosen’s recent article about Milwaukee’s hot start). Dallas is on a five-game cover streak entering Friday Night’s game vs. Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers.

You may have heard some in the media talking about how Memphis has been an underrated team. They’re off to a great 10-2 start straight up, giving them the best won-lost record in the league at the moment. But, they’re only 6-6 vs. market expectations. Recently Memphis failed to cover five straight games as favorites.

11/7: Memphis (-7) won at Oklahoma City 91-89

11/8: Memphis (-4.5) lost at Milwaukee 93-92

11/11 Memphis (-10) beat the LA Lakers 107-102

11/13 Memphis (-5.5) beat Sacramento 111-110

11/15: Memphis (-9.5) beat Detroit 95-88

Most of the Memphis victories didn’t “catch the market by surprise.” The market was actually surprised the team was playing nailbiters with the likes of Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, and the Kings. The market was surprised the Grizzlies had to sweat the Lakers and Pistons. Overall, the team has split out 50/50 vs. expectations.

You’re probably aware that bettors have the opportunity to invest in whether a game will be lower or higher scoring than a posted total. The single biggest surprise in the NBA thus far involves this category. The Houston Rockets are 2-10 to the under through 12 games. That appears to be keyed by misreads in several areas showcased on our Efficiency and Pace Summary page:

*Houston plays better defense than realized…currently #2 in the league

*Houston isn’t as explosive offensively as expected…currently #22 in the league

*Houston is near league average in pace…currently 92.5 possessions per 48 minutes compared to a league average of 92.4.

Look at the dramatic changes from last season…

*Houston’s defense has risen from #12 to #2

*Houston’s offense has fallen from #4 to #22

*Houston’s pace has slowed down from way above league average (fifth fastest) to near league average

The market hadn’t anticipated that kind of transformation, and was slow to adjust out of the gate as it was happening. Moreyball has a whole new look!

Boston has been a surprise on the other end of the spectrum. Eight of 10 Celtics’ games have gone over the total. We talked about their recent track meet with Cleveland in a Cavonometry feature. For the season…

*Boston plays at the second fastest pace, trailing only Golden State’s sprinters

*Boston currently has the sixth most efficient offense on a per-possession basis

*Boston has the sixth worst defense, only fractionally worse than struggling Cleveland

The market has been chasing points in Celtics games all season.

Note that you can monitor pointspread performances for all 30 teams on the standings page at Covers, a common website information source for handicappers/bettors (and the source for today’s cited records). The team pages here at Nylon Calculus are also a great source for the market-minded. The default link takes you to the Cleveland Cavaliers page because it’s used so often in our Cavonometry features. Use the scroll option to see game-by-game breakdowns for all other teams.