Cavonometry, Games 11 and 12: Six-in-Nine Exposes Pine

Nov 22, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) is helped up by guard Kyrie Irving (2) and center Anderson Varejao (17) in the second quarter against the Toronto Raptors at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

When an NBA team has to play six games in nine days…bookended by Friday-Saturday back-to-back challenges on consecutive weekends…it helps to have a good bench!

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a horrible bench. One so devoid of impact talent that you have to wonder what management was thinking in the offseason. Sure, the collapse of Dion Waiters was a surprise. He’s gone from dragging down the starting unit to dragging down the bench. But, how was this group supposed to help overcome the rigors of an 82-game season? Who are the energy guys? The defensive stoppers? The playmakers and trey-makers?

Cleveland lost the third and fourth straight games of its current skid to fall to 5-7 for the season with Friday and Saturday night losses to key conference foes Washington and Toronto. Bench mismatches were a huge factor in both.

Bench Scoring

Washington 40, Cleveland 9

Toronto 51, Cleveland 19

That’s -31 and -32 in scoreboard differential. Tired starters are supposed to overcome that?

Let’s run the boxscores from Games 11 and 12 for more context on what’s going wrong with the Cavaliers (who…by the way…have been favored to win 11 of those first 12 games!), and how this sustained fatigue challenge may have been represented in the numbers.

Washington 91, Cleveland 78

Two-Point Percentages: Cleveland 44%, Washington 50%

Three-Pointers: Cleveland 6/27, Washington 4/10

Free Throws: Cleveland 18/23, Washington 5/9

Rebounds: Cleveland 41, Washington 45

Turnovers: Cleveland 19, Washington 17

Both teams largely shut down their engines in a 13-11 fourth quarter win for the visitors. Each was playing again Saturday night…and Washington’s 80-65 lead after three felt fairly insurmountable given Cleveland’s lack of intensity.

If you watched the ESPN telecast, you know the announcers talked quite a bit about issues we’ve been covering all season here in this feature. Cleveland’s problems are very difficult to miss. No bench (in this game only 3-of-16 shooting in 77 combined minutes), poor inside defense (another game allowing an opponent to shoot 50 percent or more inside the arc), and offensive ball movement that bogs down when the team gets discouraged (only 13 assists to go with a whopping 19 turnovers).

Note that Cleveland was the market favorite, laying -1.5 points. Their last lead was with just over 1:30 left in the first quarter.

Fatigue? Tired legs often lead to long jumpers soaring askew. So, that 6-of-27 mark on three-pointers is consistent with fatigue. As is 19 turnovers in a game with only 92 offensive possessions. 55 points in the first half followed by 36 in the second half? Check.

Toronto 110, Cleveland 93

Two-Point Percentages: Toronto 43%, Cleveland 49%

Three-Pointers: Toronto 8/24, Cleveland 3/16

Free Throws: Toronto 38/42, Cleveland 20/29

Rebounds: Toronto 34, Cleveland 46

Turnovers: Toronto 8, Cleveland 18

An interesting development here. Cleveland “held” Toronto to 43 percent on two point shots! Does this reflect a new commitment to defense? No, the Cavs kept fouling so often that Toronto shot a whopping 42 free throws on the night. Tired legs lead to grabbing and clutching. You can see Cleveland only forced eight turnovers. More missed treys here as well, giving us a two night total of 9-of-43 for 21 percent. And, another offensive turnover debacle, though in a faster paced game. 54 points in the first half followed by 39 in the second.

Cleveland was a three-point favorite. Their last lead was with just over six minutes to go in the third quarter. If you didn’t watch, you may not be aware that Cleveland jumped out to a 24-6 lead! In the final 40 and a half minutes, they were outscored 104-69. By a team that was also playing on night two of a back-to-back. Toronto’s leading scorer was a bench player. Lou Williams netted 36 points including 15 of 15 from the free throw line.

I’m tinkering with the running storylines. Let’s start with a brief full season review of scoreboard results…

Tug-of-War

That number line format that you may have used to learn addition and subtraction back in elementary school is actually a very good way to paint a quick picture of a team’s performances. You can see the outliers. You can see the midpoints (most common results). Countless words will be written about how good or bad Cleveland is playing out of the gate. Look at what this does without any words (games listed from worst to best, midpoints are in parenthesis, and I’ll use a “0” for the overtime game in Chicago because I want to keep everything at 48 minutes).

-19, -17, -13, -9, -5, (-2, -2), 0, 1, 7, 9, 33

Negatives are winning the tug-of-war. The median result is a two-point loss, even though the Cavs have been favored in all but one game (median “market expectation” has projected a 6-point win). They’re 2-4 in games decided by nine points or more. And, 4-7-1 straight up at the end of regulation. The blowout of Atlanta is the biggest outlier. If you throw out the high and low, Cleveland is -32 points in regulation over 10 games.

Market Report (thru 12 games)

Cleveland (-13) lost to New York 95-90 (missed by 18)

Cleveland (+4) won at Chicago 114-108 (covered by 4 in regulation, 10 on the night)

Cleveland (-2.5) lost at Portland 101-82 (missed by 21.5)

Cleveland (-5.5) lost at Utah 102-100 (missed by 7.5)

Cleveland (-6.5) won at Denver 110-101 (covered by 2.5)

Cleveland (-5.5) won vs. New Orleans 118-111 (covered by 1.5)

Cleveland (-6) won at Boston 122-121 (missed by 5)

Cleveland (-7) won vs. Atlanta 127-94 (covered by 26)

Cleveland (-11.5) lost to Denver 106-97 (missed by 20.5)

Cleveland (-1.5) lost to San Antonio 92-90 (missed by 3.5)

Cleveland (-1.5) lost at Washington 91-78 (missed by 14.5)

Cleveland (-3) lost to Toronto 110-93 (missed by 20)

The Cavs have a 4-8 record against the spread. At the end of regulation, market expectations have been too high by 76.5 points through 12 games. In this current four-game straight up and ATS losing streak, the Cavs have missed the market by 58.5 points.

The Defense Rests….Inside the Arc

I decided entering the weekend that I wanted to pay closer attention to Cleveland’s two-point defense. Saturday’s clutching and grabbing exhibition threw a bit of a monkey wrench into the visual impact of the numbers. Maybe I’ll have to create a hybrid presentation that also includes opposition free throw attempts. For now, here’s what the Cavs have allowed on two-point shots this year from best defensive performance to worst.

43-44-47-50-52-(52-54)-54-54-57-58-62

The league entered the weekend shooting around 49% inside the arc. Cleveland’s got some work to do. Or some trades to make.

Deja’ View: Cavs of 2014-15 vs. Heat of 2010-11 (thru 12 games)

Miami 8-4 (+10.8 margin average)

Cleveland 5-7 (-0.9 margin average)

The well-remembered benchmark was Miami going 9-8 in its first 17 games with James-Wade-Bosh and company…just before going on a 21-1 rampage. Cleveland still has a chance to get to 9-8 with a 4-1 run. But there is very little in the stats or eye test that would suggest greatness is just a couple of weeks away.

Cleveland did have that fantastic game vs. Atlanta last week. In 2010-11, Miami had four wins of 23 points or more in its first 11 games.

Let’s note though that running into the best two teams in the current Eastern standings on the heels of defending World Champion San Antonio at the end of a brutal fatigue stretch is creating a polluted read. What’s ahead for a fresher team is going to be much easier.

The next edition of Cavonometry will go up during the Thanksgiving holiday. Cleveland hosts Orlando Monday night, and then Washington in a quick rematch Wednesday night. We’ll cover both of those games in that next report. The latter, in particular, seems very important because it represents Cleveland’s first “revenge” game of the new season.

Don’t forget that game-by-game logs featuring ACTUAL possession counts and the offensive and defensive efficiency marks they generate are exclusively available here at Nylon Calculus. Game dates are included, which could prove very important for charting future “extended” fatigue situations. The Cavaliers are the default page at that link. But, the scroll option allows you to study important dynamics for all 30 NBA teams. Are there any other teams you can think of with weak benches who may be vulnerable during busy schedule stretches?