Nylon Notebook: Lance Stephenson and the Charlotte Hornets, Blowing an Opportunity?

Nov 15, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Charlotte Hornets guard Lance Stephenson (1) stands on the court during a break in the action against the Golden State Warriors in the third quarter at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Hornets 112-87. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Lance Stephenson was supposed to be just want the Charlotte Hornets needed to climb the playoff ladder in the NBA’s Eastern Conference. His skill sets were a match for what last season’s #7 seed lacked. The composite sum of expertise expressed by the legal betting markets prior to the 2014-15 season tabbed up-and-coming Charlotte to finish fifth in the East.

Cleveland was projected to win around 58-59 games…Chicago 54-55…Toronto and Washington around 48…then Charlotte was expected to be right on their heels around 45 victories.

Monday night, Stephenson’s Hornets lost badly to the Los Angeles Clippers 113-92 as small home underdogs. That loss was Charlotte’s sixth straight loss (and eighth in their last nine outings), dropping the Hornets to 4-11 in the new season. They’re not playing anything like a playoff team, let alone one that might be knocking at the door of home court advantage in the first round.

Though Stephenson obviously isn’t the only issue, he has struggled in the transition to his new team…

Stephenson’s Two-Point Shooting

Last Season: 55%

This Season: 37%

Stephenson’s Three-Point Shooting

Last Season: 35%

This Season: 21%

Stephenson’s Free Throw Shooting

Last Season: 71%

This Season: 61%

Stephenson’s Points Per 36 Minutes

Last Season: 14.1

This Season: 10.3

Again, there’s a lot wrong with a team that’s posting results like these over the last six games (market pointspreads in parentheses)…

Charlotte (+11) lost at Golden State 112-87 (14-point miss)

Charlotte (+4) lost to Dallas 107-80 (23-point miss)

Charlotte (+2) lost at Indiana 88-86 (push)

Charlotte (-4) lost to Orlando 105-100 (9-point miss)

Charlotte (+1) lost at Miami 94-93 (push)

Charlotte (+3.5) lost to the LA Clippers 113-92 (17.5-point miss)

Clearly Charlotte has been extremely overmatched by some of the best in the West. They were more competitive within the weaker East. Though, losing to Orlando looks even worse now that the Magic just lost by 32 points Monday night in Cleveland.

Still early. And, transitions can often take much longer than teams had anticipated. But, it has to be a concern to Charlotte fans that the “volatile” youngster with “a difficult personality” (quotes from this lengthy discussion of Stephenson from Zach Lowe in Grantland this past June) has been such a negative influence on the floor thus far.

Backdoor Cuts

*Pace is down so far this year in the NBA. According to the pace tabulations (possessions per 48 minutes) based on actual counts that are exclusively available here at Nylon Calculus, there were 92.5 team possessions per 48 minutes through this past Sunday Night, down from the full season number of 93.7 in 2013-14. That’s a little more than one possession per team per game.

The single biggest drop belongs to Oklahoma City, down SIX possessions per game because their speed is on the Injured List. Detroit is down 4.3 possessions per game under new head coach Stan Van Gundy. The Lakers have shown the third biggest drop at 4.0 possessions, as Kobe Bryant’s return from the Injured List has created a much slower, half-court approach.

Boston has shown the biggest increase in pace. The Celtics are up 3.8 possessions per game game. Chicago and Memphis are both up more than two possessions per game…though they were so slow last year that they aren’t exactly running and gunning this season. Golden State went from fast to hyper-speed, adding 2.3 possessions to what was already a fast attack.

*Van Gundy’s slower Pistons join Charlotte on the early list of Eastern disappointments. They were projected to win around 36 games this year, but are only off to a 3-10 start (4-9 against market prices).

*Last week we noted some market tendencies for the New York Knicks (very overrated) and the Houston Rockets (playing much slower than realized). Those teams squared off in Houston Monday Night. New York (+6) did manage to beat the market in a 91-86 loss (thanks to a layup with 38 seconds left, and a dunk with eight seconds left reducing a 91-82 deficit). The Knicks are still just 4-11 against market prices this season. That low scoring game stayed way under the market projection of 191.5. Houston’s games are now 2-12 to the Under this season.

*Toronto moved to 12-2 straight up Monday night with a home win over Phoenix. The Raptors appear to be the class of the East, though 10 of their first 14 games have come at home. They’re playing so well that you can’t call their success a product of an easy schedule. The Raptors are 4-0 vs. the West and just beat Cleveland in Cleveland. It will be interesting to see how well their form holds when challenges start to cluster.

These upcoming games will provide some tests:

Friday: vs. Dallas

Tuesday December 2: at Sacramento

Wednesday December 3: at Utah in a back-to-back

Friday December 5: vs. Cleveland

Tuesday December 9: at Cleveland

There are some lesser opponents not listed. December 10 looks like a good day to take stock of how the Raptors handled a tougher slate.

*Interesting multi-chotomy in the webverse regarding the “patience” people “should” have regarding Cleveland’s inconsistent early results. Surely, if you’re wondering about how the team will perform in the playoffs, those are still a long way off. If you’re trying to evaluate how head coach David Blatt will fare in the NBA, it’s way too early to get a solid read. But, if you’re an opposing team that has to play them in short order, you’re very focused on what they’re doing right now. If you’re involved in the betting markets, what’s happening on a daily basis is of paramount importance. Analytics touches all of those. How you’re perceiving the commotion will likely be connected to where your feet are planted.

Cleveland moved to 5-8 against market prices with a blowout win over Orlando Monday night. We’ll review the numbers from that game and Wednesday night’s Washington/Cleveland return bout in the next edition of Cavonometry. That will go up Thanksgiving day. (PS: even if you love Nylon Calclulus, don’t truss your turkeys with nylon! Tent rope tied in a surgeon’s knot works great.)