Breaking Down the 5 Legitimate Super Bowl Contenders After Week 12
By Will Osgood
We break down the five most legitimate Super Bowl contenders
We are nearly three-quarters of the way through the 2014 NFL season; making it an apt time to determine which teams have a realistic shot of ending the season in Glendale holding the Lombardi Trophy as Super Bowl Champions.
There are, of course, a number of possible ways to do this. Make no mistake, though, this is not another Power Rankings list. These are the five teams with the best chance to win it all this season.
For that reason, this season’s darling, the Arizona Cardinals, are being left out. In their place will stand a team that seems to be in the mix every year, despite less than flashy statistics or incredible regular season win-loss records.
Without further ado, here are the five teams with the best opportunity to finish as NFL champions:
5. Baltimore Ravens
Key Stat: Point Differential (+87)
Baltimore did something Monday night that unfortunately (for me as a Saints fan) has become pretty routine—go into the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and dominate the hapless Saints. Sure they gave up 420 gross passing yards to Drew Brees, and 27 points, but the win was as dominant as any in Week 12.
Strengths: The Ravens are third in the league in point differential, at plus-87, per ESPN.com. They have registered 29 sacks—good for eighth in the league—making up for all the passing yards they give up. And they’re only giving up 18.9 points per game defensively, while scoring 26.8 per.
Additionally, they are running the ball as well as they ever have in Gary Kubiak’s vaunted zone blocking scheme, with NFL journeyman Justin Forsett the leading rusher. They are tied for sixth in the league in yards per carry at 4.6. And defensively, they handle the run as well as any team in the league. And Steve Smith Sr. is playing as well as any Wide Receiver in the NFL.
Weaknesses: The Ravens are 29th in the league in passing yards per game allowed and near the bottom in yards per attempt given up at 7.7, per NFL.com. If the Ravens do not make the postseason or win at least one game while there, they will have only their atrocious secondary to blame.
Why They Can Win It All: The Ravens have made the playoffs in five of John Harbaugh’s six seasons as head coach, and won at least one playoff game in all five appearances, including the Super Bowl in the 2012 season. It does not matter for the Ravens how they get in, so long as they do. They are playoff tested.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
Key Stat: 10 Non-Offensive Touchdowns
The Philadelphia Eagles’ 2014 season has been an odd one, statistically and otherwise. They are third in the league in scoring, but owe much of that to their 10 non-offensive touchdowns. The running game has been much weaker, overall, than a season ago. And on the surface it seems murky to trust Mark Sanchez to take this team to the promised land, though he was very successful in his first two seasons with the Jets once reaching the postseason.
Strengths: Is 10 non-offensive touchdowns really a strength? If nothing else, it seems to indicate the Eagles are doing a wonderful job in special teams and on defense of finding ways to make plays, which is definitely a strength. The offensive line has been a strength, allowing just 17 sacks—good for seventh in the league, and are sixth in QB Hits allowed with only 43.
The defense allows the team to play what Saints coach Sean Payton calls “complementary football”—that is offense, defense and special teams all working together to win football games. Though the Eagles possess the football on average the least amount of any offense, the defense is second best in lowest average drive time at 2:23, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com. They do this two ways primarily: 1) they are ninth in the league in rushing yards allowed per rush, at 3.9. 2) They get after the Quarterback. The Eagles are first in the NFC and second in the NFL with 38 sacks.
Weaknesses: Despite possessing LeSean “Shady” McCoy, the Eagles are bad in the running game, averaging just 4.0 yards per attempt. And as mentioned above, they possess the football less time than any team in the NFL, which can easily come back to bite a team in January, or February.
Why They Can Win It All: Generally, the team that wins the Super Bowl has a bit of luck, and is often considered a “Team of Destiny”. Registering 10 non-offensive touchdowns through Week 11 sure seems to fit that narrative. And again, Mark Sanchez has had postseason success in the past. Assuming the Eagles get there, and he remains the Quarterback, he likely will not be overwhelmed by the pressure.
3. Denver Broncos
Key Stat: 2.36 Points Per Drive
Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos would normally be the favorite to reach the Super Bowl in the AFC, if not for those pesky Patriots. Manning continues to play at an elite level, seemingly remaining as efficient as ever. And the running game has found some juice with C.J. Anderson becoming a go-to guy for Manning.
Strengths: One word: Manning. Isn’t that enough? Sure, he’s had his postseason struggles, but he remains the best, or second best, Quarterback in the league. The Broncos are the second best passing offense in terms of net passing yards, and second net adjusted passing yards at 7.6 per pass, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com. If last season’s playoffs are any indication, the outrageous passing numbers can be attained in the postseason as well by this Broncos offense.
More from Baltimore Ravens
- Ravens need to give Odell Beckham Jr. a reason not to retire
- NFL Rumors: Ravens additions might not be done after signing Melvin Gordon
- NFL Power Rankings: Who is the best quarterback in each division?
- Is Mark Ingram’s new CFB gig a signal that he’s retired from NFL?
- NFL Power Rankings: Which teams will have the best rushing attacks this season?
Like the first two teams on this list, the Broncos get after the Quarterback defensively, registering 28 total sacks through 11 games. And they are second in rushing defense, giving up just 3.4 yards per attempt. Also, they are third in the league in net adjusted passing yards defensively, giving up just 5.4 yards per attempt.
Weaknesses: Like the Eagles, the Broncos do not possess the football very long, averaging just 2:27 per drive, 26th overall. Part of that is because they are tied with the Eagles at just 4.0 yards per offensive rushing attempt.
Why They Can Win It All: Again, Manning is one of the two or three best Quarterbacks in the NFL right now. That passing offense will not be thwarted this year, as there is no dominant defense in the league this season. Additionally, Jack Del Rio’s defense is outstanding, at least statistically. It was eaten up a bit by Miami on Sunday, but teams tend to be more conservative come playoff time, meaning that defense should regain its stride in January, while playing at least one home playoff game at Mile High elevation.
2. New England Patriots
Key Stat: Point Differential (+130)
It’s the same ‘ole Patriots with Brady and Belichick. Offensively, the Patriots really have one marquee weapon for Brady to use—Rob Gronkowski. Defensively the Patriots are more talented—despite losing Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones—than they have been for several years. The result seems to be a better overall unit. In fact, it could be that defense which leads the Patriots to yet another Super Bowl appearance.
Strengths: Matt Patricia’s defense doesn’t necessarily stand out in any one particular area. It is mostly just a solid unit. Except it does create a turnover on 7.0 percent of all drives it is on the field, good for fifth best in the league.
Offensively, the Patriots score on 49.2 percent of all offensive drives, good for best in the NFL. Tom Brady is doing what he has always done well: TD/Int ratio. This year it is 27/6 or 4.5/1. In fact, that is nearly impossible to beat.
Weaknesses: It’s hard to find a true weakness in this Patriots squad. A little searching shows that they are 30th and 26th, respectively in offensive and defensive starting field position. This indicates, perhaps, that the return and coverage units are average to below average in New England. If so, field position, or even a big return for a touchdown, could be the Pats’ undoing in January or February.
Why They Can Win It All: Tom Brady. Bill Belichick. An underrated defense which statistics do not do justice. In past years this Patriots squad was clearly lacking in talent in comparison to the rest of the Super Bowl contenders, yet there isn’t a January where Mr. Hoodie hasn’t been on a sideline when Tom Brady has been his starting Quarterback.
This season, they are much more talented defensively, led by Jamie Collins—a freakish hybrid who can do a little bit of everything. If they can get Jones back in time for the postseason (currently listed as Out Indefinitely), they will possess two of the game’s young freaks at a time when rushing the passer is of paramount importance.
1. Green Bay Packers
Key Stat: Point Differential (+108)
Aaron Rodgers should be the NFL Offensive Player of the Year, without a question (in my humble opinion J.J. Watt is the obvious NFL MVP; there’s no way Houston is 5-6 without him). Jordy Nelson has become a legit No. 1 Wide Receiver. Clay Matthews has reawakened, thanks in part to the offseason acquisition of Julius Peppers, and a slightly adjusted role as inside linebacker on most downs. No team in the league is more frightening right now.
Strengths: Basically everything New England does well, the Packers do slightly better. Rodgers and company score 2.74 points per drive, the best figure in the league. They score on 47.0 percent of all drives (OK, New England barely has them on that one). Rodgers and the Packers are first in net passing yards per attempt at 7.6, and have turned the football over the fewest times in the league. Rodgers’ TD/Int ratio is an insane 30/4, or 15/2 (7.5 to 1). Finally, the defense has forced the second most turnovers in the league.
Weaknesses: As with New England, it is difficult to find one. Yet it’s actually fairly obvious. The Packers allow 4.5 yards per rush attempt against them. Only five teams are worse in this category. The result is that the defense stays on the field for an average of 2:49 each drive, 28th in the league, and faces 6.4 plays per drive, 31st in the league.
Why They Can Win It All: Again, Rodgers. No Quarterback is playing more solidly league-wide this season. Only a devastating injury (which he’s suffered twice in his still young career) or an unforeseen shake of Rodgers from the top of the Quarterback rankings pyramid could keep Green Bay from reaching Glendale in February. It might be appropriate to say that Rodgers is the only player in the NFL right now who can guarantee victory simply by being on the field. He’s been that locked in this year. While it’s possible the Packers may have to travel for the NFC Championship Game, the opponent will not really matter, Rodgers will destroy them all by himself.
More from FanSided
- NFL rumors: Aaron Rodgers sets Jets up for Super Bowl run with new contract
- MLB Trade Grades: Dodgers land Amed Rosario from Guardians
- Colorado gives Pac-12 a possible death knell with move to Big 12
- NFL rumors: Dalvin Cook suitor maintaining very ‘real’ interest
- Braves get dose of bad news on Max Fried as ace nears return