Cavonometry Games 13 and 14: Back with a Vengeance!

Nov 26, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Dion Waiters (3) drives between Washington Wizards forward Otto Porter (22) and Washington Wizards forward Rasual Butler (8) during the fourth quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers beat the Wizards 113-87. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

A couple days off, sandwiching a scrimmage vs. lowly Orlando, helped the previously tired Cleveland Cavaliers rebound from a four-game losing streak with authority. As “six-games-in-nine-days” drifts back in the rearview mirror, LeBron James and company have re-established themselves as likely Eastern powers. And, they’ve earned their first “revenge” win of the young season against the Washington Wizards.

They’re also about to enjoy an extended break! Up next are four off days in five, with two home games as comfortable favorites representing the complete one-week schedule…

Thursday: off (as is the whole NBA, Happy Thanksgiving!)

Friday: off

Saturday: Cleveland will be a big home favorite over Indiana

Sunday: off

Monday: off

Tuesday: Cleveland will be a big home favorite over Milwaukee

Wednesday: off

This past Tuesday’s win over Orlando was so easy that the starters were able to sit early. A virtual night off because the Magic put up so little resistance. The well-timed extended break should allow Cleveland to handle their early December challenges as one of the more fresh and rested teams in the NBA.

Let’s run the numbers from those two blowouts…

Cleveland 106, Orlando 74

Two-Point Percentages: Orlando 38%, Cleveland 55%

Three-Pointers: Orlando 5/17, Cleveland 6/16

Free Throws: Orlando 11/14, Cleveland 16/22

Rebounds: Orlando 40, Cleveland 44

Turnovers: Orlando 17, Cleveland 12

It was such a rout that there’s not much to say. Bullying a bad team like Orlando may not tell us much about what’s down the road when the Cavs play quality. But, it was a very good sign that Cleveland’s defense allowed only 38% shooting inside the arc while forcing 17 turnovers. The starters hit the floor like they were furious about losing four straight, and ended 30 of 53 from the field for 57%. Never a game.

Cleveland 113, Washington 87

Two-Point Percentages: Washington 48%, Cleveland 59%

Three-Pointers: Washington 5/13, Cleveland 6/20

Free Throws: Washington 16/22, Cleveland 31/38

Rebounds: Washington 26, Cleveland 32

Turnovers: Washington 18, Cleveland 9

Cleveland played like a team on a mission. That’s very clear in “energy” stats like free throw attempts, rebounds, and turnovers. The Cavs made nine more free throws than Washington attempted. And, forced nine more turnovers.

Important to note that these blowouts weren’t like the rout of Atlanta where treys were raining from the heavens. Three-pointers barely mattered vs. Orlando or Washington. Adding up the sums of 1’s and 2’s, Cleveland beat Orlando 88-59, and Washington 95-72. (This category was actually an 85-70 loss to Atlanta because the Cavs won made treys 19-3!)

There are still issues with the Cleveland bench, which was outscored 41-29 Wednesday evening. If the starters crush like this, that can be managed while solutions are sought.

The Looks of Love

In Cleveland’s first game against Washington last Friday, Kevin Love shot four three-pointers. He’s only attempted a total of four since then…while on the floor for 95 minutes in three games against Toronto, Orlando, and the Wiz. There has very clearly been an effort to get Love more looks inside.

First 11 Games: 72 two-point attempts, 60 three-point attempts

Versus Toronto: 15 two-point attempts, 1 three-point attempt

Versus Orlando: 10 two-point attempts, 1 three-point attempt

Versus Washington: 8 two-point attempts, 2 three-point attempts

So, a 72/60 ratio switched to 33/4. Or, in the first 11 games, 45% of Love’s shot attempts were from behind the arc. In the last three games, only 11% have been. Dramatic change in approach. And, one that’s generally had viewers raving about Cleveland’s ball movement and offensive flow at least in the games against Orlando and Washington. A potentially huge development that hasn’t received much media run yet.

Tug-of-War

This week’s blowouts have pushed the tug-of-war on Cleveland’s “regulation results” number line very close to equilibrium. The midpoints are now the overtime at Chicago and one of the two-point losses.

-19, -17, -13, -9, -5, -2, (-2, 0), 1, 7, 9, 26, 32, 33

Given the soft schedule ahead in this East-heavy segment, the median could be racing toward the 7 and 9 in the coming days.

The Defense Has STOPPED Resting

Had to change the name of that subhead! Cleveland has started playing better defense in the arc in terms of discouraging easy two-pointers and forcing turnovers. When we first introduced this storyline, the line of “two-point shooting percentages allowed” was mostly numbers in the 50’s. Here’s what it looks like now…

38-43-44-47-48-50-(52-52)-54-54-54-57-58-62

The median is still 52 percent allowed, which is below league average. But, things are obviously trending in the right direction in terms of teamwork and intensity when the legs aren’t tired. The clusters of really embarrassing numbers at 54 or higher seem like old news.

Deja’ View: Cavs of 2014-15 vs. Heat of 2010-11 (thru 14 games)

Miami 8-6 (+7.9 margin average)

Cleveland 7-7 (+3.4 margin average)

Amazing what a couple of blowouts will do for your math. The targets here are Miami’s 9-8 record after 17 games, with a margin average around six. Cleveland’s schedule will give them a shot to beat the first and come close to matching the second. I should say again that 2010-11 Miami went 21-1 right after that! Ultimately, LeBron’s first Heat team ended with 58 victories. LeBron’s 2014-15 Cavaliers are now playing like that’s within reach.

In the last edition of Cavonometry, I said “there is very little in the stats or eye test that would suggest greatness is just a couple of weeks away.” Thanks goodness I also said “running into the best two teams in the current Eastern standings on the heels of defending World Champion San Antonio at the end of a brutal fatigue stretch is creating a polluted read. What’s ahead for a fresher team is going to be much easier.”

Great sign that the Cavs won so easily with a chip on their shoulder. Can they keep the chip there?

Market Report (thru 14 games)

Cleveland (-13) lost to New York 95-90 (missed by 18)

Cleveland (+4) won at Chicago 114-108 (covered by 4 in regulation, 10 on the night)

Cleveland (-2.5) lost at Portland 101-82 (missed by 21.5)

Cleveland (-5.5) lost at Utah 102-100 (missed by 7.5)

Cleveland (-6.5) won at Denver 110-101 (covered by 2.5)

Cleveland (-5.5) won vs. New Orleans 118-111 (covered by 1.5)

Cleveland (-6) won at Boston 122-121 (missed by 5)

Cleveland (-7) won vs. Atlanta 127-94 (covered by 26)

Cleveland (-11.5) lost to Denver 106-97 (missed by 20.5)

Cleveland (-1.5) lost to San Antonio 92-90 (missed by 3.5)

Cleveland (-1.5) lost at Washington 91-78 (missed by 14.5)

Cleveland (-3) lost to Toronto 110-93 (missed by 20)

Cleveland (-11) beat Orlando 106-74 (covered by 21)

Cleveland (-7.5) beat Washington 113-87 (covered by 18.5)

The Cavs have a 6-8 record against the spread. At the end of regulation, market expectations have been too high by 37 points through 14 games.

The next edition of Cavonometry will go up Wednesday December 3, and will review those aforementioned home games against Indiana and Milwaukee. For a deeper look at Cleveland’s pace, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency (scoring adjusted for possession counts), please see the “team possession” chart created by Daryl Blackport. Cleveland is the default team, but the scroll option allows you to look at any of the other 29 NBA franchises as well. Dates are included, which help you review “fatigue” and “rested” situations across the league.