Cavonometry Games 15 and 16: Pacers Plod, Bucks Battle

Dec 2, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) shoots a free throw in the fourth quarter against the Milwaukee Bucks at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Cavaliers swept two home games over what looks to be their easiest seven-day schedule stretch of the entire season outside of the All-Star Break. (Two home games, five days off!) They’re now 9-7 through 16 games. That matches the early pace set by LeBron James and the 2011-12 Miami Heat in his first season by South Beach.

Saturday’s 109-97 win over Indiana was a virtual cakewalk, with late garbage time creating a misleadingly close final score. Tuesday’s 111-108 victory over Milwaukee was a great game to watch, and very informative about issues Cleveland may be having down the road. Even well-rested, the Cavs had serious trouble shaking the energetic young Bucks.

Here are the boxscore stats in the order the games were played…

Cleveland 109, Indiana 97

Two-Point Percentages: Indiana 42%, Cleveland 55%

Three-Pointers: Indiana 7/22, Cleveland 7/16

Free Throws: Indiana 20/26, Cleveland 20/32

Rebounds: Indiana 48, Cleveland 44

Turnovers: Indiana 7, Cleveland 9

The stats make it look like Cleveland “outshot” Indiana while everything else cancelled out. That’s an illusion created by an extended garbage time. The Cavs were up by 20 with 6:33 to go, and coasted home. Cleveland’s bench is still horrible (getting outscored 52-16 here), and showed a tendency to commit a lot of fouls after the game was way out of reach. Indiana shot 10 of the game’s last 11 free throws. The Cavs starters graded out much better in the energy numbers when the game was being decided.

Note that 109 points in a slow game like this (91 offensive possessions) is virtually the same per-possession efficiency as the night Cleveland scored 122 points in the track meet at Boston.

Really, the only negative from the players who matter most on Cleveland was in terms of forcing turnovers. But, they were disrupting Indiana’s shooting so well that it wasn’t an issue. Another strong outing on two-point defense. Improved inside defense had been a developing trend…until Milwaukee came to town…

Cleveland 111, Milwaukee 108

Two-Point Percentages: Milwaukee 53%, Cleveland 63%

Three-Pointers: Milwaukee 7/20, Cleveland 6/21

Free Throws: Milwaukee 11/13, Cleveland 27/38

Rebounds: Milwaukee 40, Cleveland 39

Turnovers: Milwaukee 13, Cleveland 19

If you read through that closely, instead of just skimming over it, it looks like the boxscore of a blowout in a game that was actually very close. How could Cleveland win inside shooting and free throw scoring so handily…but have to win a nailbiter? They were plus +16 in made free throws while also winning inside shooting 63-53 percent! It’s not like Milwaukee was hot from long range. The Bucks only made one more trey.

Milwaukee took 92 shots, compared to 73 from Cleveland. The Bucks turned offensive rebounds into baskets, and had six fewer possessions end in turnovers. You can hang tough with a lesser inside shooting percentage if you’re turning your extra opportunities into points.

Many watching the game and live-tweeting noted how often Milwaukee scored easy buckets inside. It definitely was a step backward defensively for the Cavs based on their recent trends. But, look at how Cleveland exploited Milwaukee’s inside defense. The Cavs either scored easily or marched to the free throw line.

What were the “issues” mentioned up in the lead?

*Cleveland’s two-point defense vs. ATHLETES who attack the basket still leaves a lot to be desired. Recent improvements were a good sign…but there’s still work to be done. Allowing 53% on deuces while getting hurt on the offensive boards makes that very clear.

*Cleveland isn’t used to facing young energetic defenses, and turned the ball over at an alarming rate. Passes that were complete vs. Indiana or Orlando were deflected or picked off by the Bucks. Likely Eastern Conference playoff foes Toronto, Chicago, and Washington all had top 10 defenses entering Tuesday’s action.

*Cleveland still isn’t getting much from behind the arc. That 19 of 31 performance against Atlanta is way back in the rearview mirror…and is now starting to look like one of the biggest flukes of the season. Tonight’s 6 of 21 showing brought Cleveland to 34 of 116 over the last six games, a disappointing 29 percent. LeBron James, who looked like he was playing on tired legs vs. Milwaukee despite the recent rest, went 0 for 4 to bring his recent slide to 6 of 25.

The rest break is over. The schedule is about to get very busy once again…

Litmus Looming

Last week we talked about how Cleveland’s weak bench was exposed in a six-game-in-nine-day schedule stretch. Another 6-in-9 begins Thursday…

Thursday: at New York

Friday: at Toronto (back-to-back)

Monday: at Brooklyn

Tuesday: vs. Toronto (back-to-back)

Thursday: at Oklahoma City

Friday: at New Orleans (back-to-back)

Wow! That’s three back-to-back’s in very short order…with East leader Toronto falling on night two in the first two spots. Then the gauntlet ends with a pair of Western Conference challenges featuring a finale against Oklahoma City who has both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook back in uniform. Oh…five of the six are on the ROAD! Business is about to pick up.

The Looks of Love

The tendency we noted last time about Kevin Love being more active inside continued very clearly against Indiana…but regressed against Milwaukee. You can’t really blame him for shooting treys against the Bucks. He was hot from everywhere!

First 11 Games: 72 two-point attempts, 60 three-point attempts

Versus Toronto: 15 two-point attempts, 1 three-point attempt

Versus Orlando: 10 two-point attempts, 1 three-point attempt

Versus Washington: 8 two-point attempts, 2 three-point attempts

Versus Indiana: 10 two-point attempts, 3 three-point attempts

Versus Milwaukee: 8 two-point attempts, 8 three-point attempts

In the first 11 games, 45% of Love’s shots were behind the arc. Since then, it’s only 29%.

The Defense Has STOPPED Resting

I wanted to look at this two different ways this time. First, let’s update our best-to-worst number line for shooting percentages allowed on two-pointers. We stick the 42 by Indiana and the 53 by Milwaukee into the mix.

38-42-43-44-47-48-50-(52-52)-53-54-54-54-57-58-62

The new entries are on opposite sides of the unchanged median. On the whole, mostly disappointing. But, if we focus on chronological order, you can see how much Cleveland’s intensity has improved in recent games. Again, in this variation we’re going chronologically rather than from best to worst…

First Five: 54-47-58-57-52 (median 54, composite .535 on 149/278)

Next Five: 44-62-54-54-52 (median 54, composite .531 on 167/314)

Last Six: 50-43-38-48-42-53 (midpoints 43-48, composite .459 on 179/390)

The 53 percent allowed to Milwaukee was the first game over the median in awhile. And a composite with larger sample size hunks has shown a drop from around 53 percent in the first 10 games to 46 percent in the last six. It’s been a clear point of emphasis, even if the performance against the Bucks was a relative toe stubbing.

Tug-of-War

I’m very interested to see what the next 6-in-9 stretch does to the running number line of regulation margins. The Cavs are at +3.9 in point differential. But, their “typical” game is still right near net zero. And, that’s the case even though 10 of their first 16 outings have been at home. That upcoming 6-in-9 will equalize the home/road split at 11 games apiece. For now…

-19, -17, -13, -9, -5, -2, -2, (0, 1), 3, 7, 9, 12, 26, 32, 33

Their best is much prettier than their worst is ugly. But, the Milwaukee game was a reminder that the Cavs are far from a sure thing to pull away from most opponents.

Deja’ View: Cavs of 2014-15 vs. Heat of 2010-11 (thru 16 games)

Miami 9-7 (+6.9 margin average)

Cleveland 9-7 (+3.9 margin average)

LeBron’s Cavs have caught LeBron’s Heat! Well, they matched the won-lost record through 16 games. Miami was much more likely to win blowouts when they were winning. With that tug-of-war alignment fresh in your minds, let’s run the same for Miami through 16 games. I’ll put Cleveland on top, Miami underneath.

-19, -17, -13, -9, -5, -2, -2, (0, 1), 3, 7, 9, 12, 26, 32, 33 (Cavs through 16)

-16, -9, -8, -5, -3, -2, -2, (8, 9), 9, 10, 12, 23, 26, 27, 32 (Heat through 16)

The won-lost records are the same. But, you can see that the midpoints were significantly better. LeBron’s Heat started out 0-4 in games decided by five points or less, but 8-2 in games decided by nine points or more.

Now that the teams have matched records, I’ll discontinue this running storyline for awhile. It’s barely on anyone’s minds any more. Cleveland will have trouble matching the 21-1 record that 2010-11 Miami is about to unleash. But, the final regular season win total of 58 isn’t out of the question given how weak much of the Eastern Conference is here in 2014-15.

Market Report (thru 16 games)

4-8 ATS in their first 12 games (ending with a 6-in-9 fatigue stretch), followed by:

Cleveland (-11) beat Orlando 106-74 (covered by 21)

Cleveland (-7.5) beat Washington 113-87 (covered by 18.5)

Cleveland (-10) beat Indiana 109-97 (covered by 2)

Cleveland (-10.5) beat Milwaukee 111-108 (missed by 7.5)

The Cavs have a 7-9 record against the spread. At the end of regulation, market expectations have been too high by 42.5 points through 16 games. This relative rest period featured a 3-1 ATS mark with a combined cover of 34 points.

The next edition of Cavonometry will go up Saturday, reviewing the Thursday night TNT game in New York against the Knicks, and then the Friday night back-to-back revenge spot in Toronto. If you missed the reviews from the wins over Orlando and Washington that ran over the holiday weekend, you can read that edition here.