Nylon Notebook: Nuggets, Suns, Hornets and Surprising Simple Rating Stars
By Jacob Rosen
Nov 28, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Eric Bledsoe (2) takes a shot against Denver Nuggets guard Ty Lawson (3) in the second quarter at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
The Nuggets are on fire: After a very rocky start, the 9-9 Denver Nuggets are right back in the thick of things in the Western Conference. What has been the key to their success? Yes, health, obviously. But specifically, the duo of Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari has been instrumental.
When Lawson and Gallo are on the court together, Denver is dominating opponents. When exactly one is on the court, the team is playing mostly even. And when neither is playing … good lord, they’ve struggled mightily, via NBA.com/stats plus-minus lineup data (all stats as of Monday):
Of course, Arron Afflalo’s hot shooting streak has been big too. But from the plus-minus numbers, it’s intriguing to note how large of an impact Lawson and Gallinari are having. The Nuggets still have a super difficult road to a potential playoff spot as they’ll have to battle Phoenix, Sacramento, New Orleans and the now-healthy Oklahoma City Thunder.
What is up with the Suns guards? Staying out West, the Phoenix Suns took the NBA by storm last season with their innovative two-guard looks. They ran all over opponents, led the league in fast-break statistics and nearly made the playoffs in the dominant West.
This season? Phoenix went all-in, adding underappreciated Isaiah Thomas to the existing fun backcourt of Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe. Thus far this season, although the Suns are a respectable 11-8, the Thomas/Dragic combo hasn’t been working out too well, according to the plus-minus lineup data (as of Monday):
Dragic is only shooting 32.1 percent from three-point range, a big decline from last year’s mark. Meanwhile, Thomas has shined off the bench and is shooting 39.3 percent from long range. Can all three guards survive together? Does it matter? That would be the key for Phoenix to make another jump this year.
The Hornets are struggling badly: In the East, Charlotte is one of the biggest disappointments in the league. After last year’s impressive 43-win playoff run, they’re off to a horrendous 4-14 start. Lance Stephenson hasn’t meshed well. Steve Clifford’s defense is falling apart. And all hell is about to start breaking loose.
From NBA.com/stats lineup data, one can point out some possible key offenders. The Hornets defense has collapsed when either Al Jefferson or Marvin Williams takes the court (as of Monday):
Considering everyone knew they’d lack floor spacing, the defensive regression is what is killing the buzz down in Charlotte. Jefferson has never been the most gift defender, but last year’s scheme kept him in check. With the large roster turnover, that hasn’t been the case. Williams has struggled as his starting frontcourt mate, ceding way to Cody Zeller for more and more minutes.
Surprising Simple Rating stars: One-size-fits-all statistics are not my favorite. But, as evidenced today, I’m often a fan of on/off data. I won’t be citing RPM-esque stats regularly. It just can be illuminating to note various trends and stats – albeit often with the caveat of small sample sizes.
82Games.com, one of the long-time resources for basketball analytics, has long had a Simple Rating statistic. This stat measures a team’s on-court vs. off-court net rating with a given player and also uses some PER-like adjustments to the final number. The site posted leaderboards for 2013-14, 2012-13 and other past seasons.
Although 82Games.com has not created a leaderboard for the 2014-15 season yet, I explored various team pages and found some unheralded Simple Rating stars that deserve extra attention (as of Monday):
By now, everyone should know that Atlanta’s Kyle Korver is a legitimate star in today’s NBA. Grantland’s Zach Lowe wrote the ultimate Korver appreciation this summer. The Hawks net rating was 24.5 points per 100 possessions better with Korver on the floor than without him! It’s incredible. As another sign of his mastery: He scored 24 points on only nine shots in Tuesday’s come-from-behind win over Boston.
Over the summer, I became a huge fan of Utah’s Gordon Hayward. That fandom derived from the comparisons of Hayward, Chandler Parsons and the other free agent wings this summer. Yes, Hayward hit a big game-winner against the Cavs back in November. But he’s been a huge burst for the Jazz all season. He has a career high 59.4% true shooting percentage and 25.4% usage rate. The shooting efficiency has returned and he’s been more involved thatn ever.
The Boston Celtics certainly aren’t a threat yet, but they’ve been a surprisingly fun and fast team out East. Third-year forward Jared Sullinger is not only averaging career highs of 16.4 points and 8.5 rebounds, but the team has been much better with him on the court. Most notably, via NBA.com/stats, the offense has been actually quite good with him on the court (106.3 ORTG) and horrendous with off the court (98.2 ORTG).
Finally, Brooklyn’s Mizra Teletovic might be the most unheralded of these four Simple Rating studs. He’s not even shooting that well, hitting only 32.9 percent of his many, many threes compared to 37.9 percent in his first two NBA seasons. But the 29-year-old Bosnian’s presence has provided a surprising defensive boost for the Nets. The team’s defense, via NBA.com/stats, is much better with him on the court (99.5 DRTG) compared to off the court (107.0 DRTG), even with his minutes being down of late.