Dec 1, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward JaKarr Sampson (9) reacts to a non call by an official during the second half of a game against the San Antonio Spurs at Wells Fargo Center. The Spurs defeated the 76ers 109-103. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
The Philadelphia 76ers are bad this season. You probably already knew this because they only time they’re mentioned is to explore either the hypothetical depths of their ineptitude (could they even beat Western Kentucky?), or the moral implications of its intentionality (hide your kids, hide your wife, because there’s a tanking epidemic out there). The 76ers have just put a winless month of basketball in their rearview mirror, winning their first game of the season last night, against the Minnesota Timberwolves, 85-77.
That single game will likely quiet the 76ers’ detractors for another 12-18 hours (and serve as an unfortunate season-long stain on the efforts of the Timberwolves). But it won’t change the narrative in Philadelphia for long. Given that the most generally compelling thing about the 76ers is how bad they are, and that they’ve started the season 1-17, with a -14.1 scoring differential (per 100 possessions), at some point you’re going to be reading a lot about their potential to be the worst NBA team of all time.
Let me begin banging that drum.
I used a fairly (relatively) simplified method to arrive at a probability of the 76ers remodeling the NBA’s basement. Using our game-by-game possession logs, I calculated the 76ers’ cumulative Net Rating after each one of their 17 losses, turned that into a win probability and used a cumulative binomial distribution to calculate the team’s odds of winning eight or fewer (seven or fewer after last night’s game) of their remaining games with that win probability.
This chart shows the 76ers probability of winning eight or fewer games, thus setting a new record for NBA futility. It’s represented on a game-by-game basis, so their probability after each game.
After several weeks with the probability resting above 75 percent, last night’s victory dropped them below 50 percent for the first time since their 53-point drubbing at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks. That loss increased their “worst record ever” probability by 69 percentage points. Last night’s win cut it by 32.
For the sake of curiosity, when I began assembling these numbers yesterday I also calculated their odds of going winless for their entire season. My simplistic method had those odds at 0.08 percent going into last night’s game.
Obviously, this method does not paint a perfect picture of probability. I’m ignoring variables like roster changes, home-court advantage, quality of competition, Sam Hinkie’s vicious callousness, hexes, curses, rabbit feet and genie-granted wishes. Hollinger’s Playoff Odds at ESPN, a much more comprehensive accounting of season probabilities, projects the 76ers to finish at 17-65. The worst outcome they found of the 5,000 season simulations done with today’s data, was a 3-79 finish.
They’re two wins away from that worst case scenario and eight wins away from escaping oblivion. Still, the chances that the 76ers are the worst team ever is still very much in play.