Cavonometry Games 17 and 18: Two-Fisted Revenge

Dec 5, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) celebrates with point guard Kyrie Irving (2) after scoring against the Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

The first two outings in Cleveland’s ongoing six-game-in-nine-day challenge were revenge spots. The Cavs lost their season opener to New York, whom they faced in Gotham Thursday evening (Game 17)…and lost on November 22 to Toronto, whom they faced the next night in the Great White North (Game 18).

Sweet Revenge!

Well, the first game wasn’t actually that sweet. Cleveland ground out a win over the Knicks in one of its least inspiring performances in days. They more than made up for that with an electric 48 minutes against the Raptors. Here are the boxscore stats in the order the games were played…

Cleveland 90, New York 87

Two-Point Percentages: Cleveland 44%, New York 47%

Three-Pointers: Cleveland 5/18, New York 8/26

Free Throws: Cleveland 21/26, New York 5/6

Rebounds: Cleveland 33, New York 47

Turnovers: Cleveland 17, New York 21

A very ugly one to watch. You sometimes read stories in player autobiographies saying something like “we had a little too much fun in New York the night before the game and were in no condition to play at tipoff.” I’m not saying that happened here. But, Cleveland’s energy and focus was nowhere near what viewers have grown accustomed to seeing in recent action. Maybe the players had gotten used to those dramatic home intros and the roaring Cleveland faithful over the long homestand. This was the flattest the team had looked in a couple of weeks. Maybe someday, somebody will explain why in a book!

They won’t be talking about Kyrie Irving playing flat. He had a great game, with 37 points on 12 of 18 from the floor and 10 of 11 from the line. He only had two assists because nobody else was making many shots (non-Kryie Cavs were 20 of 52, 38 percent).

And, even though there were some lapses on inside defense, it has to be noted that the Cavs only allowed 47% inside the arc while forcing 21 turnovers while only putting the Knicks on the line for six free throws. Yes, a lot of that was offensive incompetence from the host. Not all of it was. Carmelo Anthony was a point of emphasis for the Cleveland defense. He was an awful 4 of 19 from the floor.

Even on an off night, Cleveland’s defense had some things to be proud of. The team brought a lot more energy to Toronto, leading to what was arguably their signature win of the new season.

Cleveland 105, Toronto 91

Two-Point Percentages: Cleveland 50%, Toronto 44%

Three-Pointers: Cleveland 9/20, Toronto 8/24

Free Throws: Cleveland 14/21, Toronto 13/20

Rebounds: Cleveland 48, Toronto 40

Turnovers: Cleveland 13, Toronto 11

Cleveland jumped to a 30-21 lead after a quarter…on the road in a back-to-back against the best team in the East. Toronto entered the game with a 15-3 record. The Cavs made it clear they consider themselves the best team in the East! There were a few moments to sweat in the second half. But, you can see that Cleveland righted itself and pulled away to a very comfortable victory.

Solid effort across the board. And, a rare case where the bench outscored their opponent’s bench. Tristan Thompson scored 21 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in 33 minutes of play. Cleveland won bench scoring 33-25 as a result. This was the version of Cleveland many were expecting to see out of the gate. This was the prohibitive preseason favorite to win the East. For a night at least, Toronto didn’t seem very scary.

The Defense Has STOPPED Resting

The 47 percent allowed on two-point shots in New York, and the 44 percent allowed inside the arc in Toronto fall naturally into our improving number line. We now have a lot of recent 40’s to go with all of those early season mid-fifties. (The midpoints are in parenthesis)

38-42-43-44-44-47-47-48-(50-52)-52-53-54-54-54-57-58-62

As we mentioned last time, using chronological order really paints the picture of a team slowly accepting the need to really commit to inside defense.

First Five: 54-47-58-57-52 (median 54, composite .535 on 149/278)

Next Five: 44-62-54-54-52 (median 54, composite .531 on 167/314)

Last Eight: 50-43-38-48-42-53-47-44 (midpoints 44-47, composite .457 on 235/514)

That’s six of the last seven games holding teams to 48 percent or lower inside the arc. Feels like a new reality with that many samples settling in so consistently. There’s still not much margin for error given the lack of depth on the team. For now, defense isn’t a negative.

LeBron’s Legs

Many have commented early in this new season that LeBron James hasn’t seemed as athletic as in the past. He’s still very productive of course. But, he’s no longer WOW in terms of game presence and overall forcefulness.

One area where he seems to have lost his legs of late is on three-point shooting. Avid basketball TV viewers often develop a knack for knowing an instant after release if a trey attempt is going to be on target or fall short. Fans will say “YES” if they watched a lot of Marv Albert, or “short” if the release is off. It got to the point in Madison Square Garden that you can say “short” right at the point where James gathered himself to begin the process of shooting (that finally changed in the second half in Toronto!) The legs just aren’t there consistently on three-point shots over the past couple of weeks.

2 of 7 at Washington

1 of 4 at Toronto

2 of 4 vs. Orlando

1 of 5 vs. Washington

0 of 1 vs. Indiana

0 of 4 vs. Milwaukee

1 of 6 at New York

2 of 4 at Toronto

That’s 9 of 35 over the last 8 games for 26 percent. It’s 4 of 20 over the last five games. Now, he had two beauties in the second half in Toronto that were gut punches to the Raptors at the time. I don’t want to suggest that he’s completely lost the ability to make treys. It may be a red flag for any undisclosed physical issues he’s dealing with.

I’ve been trying to figure out the best way to capture his turning mortal (relative to his past). The quickest is probably with PER, John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Ranking. James has roughly endured a stunning 20% drop from his average of the prior seven seasons.

2007-08: 29.1

2008-09: 31.7

2009-10: 31.1

2010-11: 27.3

2011-12: 30.7

2012-13: 31.6

2013-14: 29.3 (30.4 average from 07-08 to 13-14)

2014-15: 23.9 (thru Thursday night’s game in New York)

That represents falling from the best player in the league to about the tenth best player in the league. Still fantastic, but a drop that’s impossible to miss. He’s not who he used to be. He’s not who he was last year. Seemingly in a finger snap, he’s 80% of the player we’d grown accustomed to watching the prior seven seasons.

Reporting Live from Litmus

The first two games are in the books from the looming litmus test we talked about last time. Cleveland now has two days off before confronting a four-in-five stretch that finishes off their second six-in-nine challenge in recent action.

Monday: at Brooklyn

Tuesday: vs. Toronto (back-to-back)

Thursday: at Oklahoma City

Friday: at New Orleans (back-to-back)

Can’t argue with a 2-0 start that features a statement win. Can Cleveland avoid a flat spot in their return to New York? Can they handle humiliated Toronto in a quick return bout? Can’t wait to see how that foray into the Western Conference goes, particularly with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook on the floor for OKC.

The Looks of Love

We have a couple of extremes to add to our list here. In New York, it looked like Love had re-embraced an inside emphasis. In Toronto, it was bombs away from outside. I may throw this running storyline on the back burner if the inside/out dichotomy loses traction with team results. Cleveland and Love may be moving into a “take what the defense gives us” mode because full confidence has returned to the offense.

First 11 Games: 72 two-point attempts, 60 three-point attempts

Versus Toronto: 15 two-point attempts, 1 three-point attempt

Versus Orlando: 10 two-point attempts, 1 three-point attempt

Versus Washington: 8 two-point attempts, 2 three-point attempts

Versus Indiana: 10 two-point attempts, 3 three-point attempts

Versus Milwaukee: 8 two-point attempts, 8 three-point attempts

At New York: 9 two-point attempts, 2 three-point attempts

At Toronto: 5 two-point attempts, 8 three-point attempts

In the first 11 games, 45% of Love’s shots were behind the arc. Since then, it’s only 28%. And, we have quite a turnaround in the Toronto games. The first represented an extreme change in approach from what had been happening before. The second turned the ship back in the other direction in fairly startling fashion as well. From, “I won’t shoot any treys,” to “I’ll park out by the three-point line” against the same opponent.

For now, I may monitor this one on the side rather than riding it game-by-game.

Waiters, Check Please!

Dion Waiters was 2 of 8 from the floor in Toronto Friday night. He’s now 22 of 67 shooting since November 19. Within that 22 of 67 mark is a 1 of 16 performance on three-pointers. He’s a disappointing 41 percent on two-pointers, an astonishing 6 percent on three-pointers.

In his last four outings, Waiters has a combined plus minus of -46 in games Cleveland won by 32 points. That means the Cavs were +78 with him on the bench. Since November 19, Waiters has a combined plus minus of -39 in games where Cleveland is up 58 on the scoreboard.

Tug-of-War

Two more victories for Cleveland have pulled the midpoints into completely positive territory. Here’s their updated regulation number line with midpoints in parenthesis.

-19, -17, -13, -9, -5, -2, -2, 0, (1, 3), 3, 7, 9, 12, 14, 26, 32, 33

Their “typical” game is just above zero. If Cleveland can win both games of their next back-to-back, their medians will be the 3-point wins over Milwaukee and New York. Still below what you’d expect for a team that’s been the market favorite in 16 of its 18 games. But, trending in the right direction.

Market Report (thru 18 games)

4-8 ATS in their first 12 games (ending with a 6-in-9 fatigue stretch), followed by:

Cleveland (-11) beat Orlando 106-74 (covered by 21)

Cleveland (-7.5) beat Washington 113-87 (covered by 18.5)

Cleveland (-10) beat Indiana 109-97 (covered by 2)

Cleveland (-10.5) beat Milwaukee 111-108 (missed by 7.5)

Cleveland (-7.5) won at New York 90-87 (missed by 10.5)

Cleveland (+4.5) won at Toronto 105-91 (covered by 18.5)

That’s a six-game winning streak straight up, that clocks in at 4-2 against the spread. For the full season, Cleveland is 8-10 ATS. At the end of regulation, market expectations have been too high by 34.5 points through 18 games. Note that Cleveland is 2-0 straight up in the only games they were projected to lose…at Chicago and at Toronto. The Cavs are 7-9 straight up when rated as favorites by the market.

The next edition of Cavonometry will go up Wednesday, reviewing the Monday-Tuesday back-to-back challenge of visiting Brooklyn then hosting revenge-minded Toronto.