Cavonometry: “First Quarter” Summary

Dec 12, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans center Omer Asik (3) dunks over Cleveland Cavaliers center Anderson Varejao (17) as forward LeBron James (23) looks on from the back court during the second half of a game at the Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans defeated the Cavaliers 119-114. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve passed the 20-game mark, which means that the Cleveland Cavaliers have played more than 25 percent of their 2014-15 season (26.8 percent to be exact). It was a rocky start as players took awhile to grow accustomed to playing offense and defense with each other. But, even after a 119-114 loss to New Orleans in a horrible fatigue spot Friday night brought their record to 13-9…it’s clear that this team is going to be a very serious contender for the Eastern Conference title if their big three of LeBron James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving can stay healthy.

That’s becoming a big issue. HEALTH! James missed Thursday night’s game in Oklahoma City with a swollen knee. Irving fell to the ground clutching his knee after an awkward landing during that game (scaring basketball lovers all over the nation in the process), but returned to play the second half.

The bench is showing more signs of life recently after a very poor start. But, current skill levels suggest the Cavs aren’t a conference championship threat if any of the big three is unable to play in the playoffs.

Let’s review the key boxscore stats from that Thursday-Friday back-to-back in Oklahoma City (Game 21) and New Orleans (Game 22), as we close out game-by-game coverage in the first quarter of the season.

Oklahoma City 103, Cleveland 94

Two-Point Percentages: Cleveland 39%, Oklahoma City 51%

Three-Pointers: Cleveland 9/28, Oklahoma City 7/26

Free Throws: Cleveland 23/30, Oklahoma City 20/22

Rebounds: Cleveland 48, Oklahoma City 46

Turnovers: Cleveland 14, Oklahoma City 11

It was interesting to see the Cavs play without LeBron. There may not be much to learn from this if he’s not destined to miss many more games. There was plenty for Cleveland to be proud of in terms of hustle and effort. They trimmed a 91-74 deficit with 7:37 to go down to three at 95-92 at the two-minute mark. They won rebounding and earned more free throw attempts. But, the downsides are pretty obvious in terms of a matchup against a Western contender. The Cavs where dominated inside (once trailing “points in the paint” 38-10 late in the fourth quarter before rallying for a final 48-28 final deficit), and needed to make two extra treys just to lose by nine points.

On the whole, Cleveland wouldn’t be a Western Conference playoff team without LeBron in the lineup. This result was consistent with that widely held position.

New Orleans 119, Cleveland 114

Two-Point Percentages: Cleveland 54%, New Orleans 63%

Three-Pointers: Cleveland 8/22, New Orleans 12/28

Free Throws: Cleveland 18/23, New Orleans 19/25

Rebounds: Cleveland 40, New Orleans 39

Turnovers: Cleveland 6, New Orleans 7

LeBron returned here to have his best game of the season (41 points on 17 of 24 shooting…that swelling behind his knee sure disappeared fast!). And Anthony Davis could only play seven minutes for the Pelicans because of what was reported to be an issue with the right side of his chest. Despite that, it wasn’t much of a contest. New Orleans led by as many as 19 in the fourth quarter before a futile Cleveland rally made the final score closer than the game really felt.

You can see that defense was a huge problem for the exhausted Cavs against a rested Western Conference opponent. Cleveland allowed 63% on two-point shots…and too many open looks from long range…while only taking the ball away seven times. It may have felt like a relapse for some viewers to the soft defense that was so prevalent early in the season. Given that this was a back-to-back spot, the fourth game in five nights, and the sixth game in nine nights, it’s more likely a symptom of exhaustion. Optimists should look to the fourth quarter rally as a sign of good news given that backdrop.

It’s a shame the “first quarter” of the season ends with such poor “indicator” games for what the team will be facing down the road. Cleveland is in the East rather than the West. Cleveland will rarely have schedule stretches this demanding in terms of opponent quality and rarity of days off. What happened in Oklahoma City and New Orleans probably aren’t a sign of things to come unless James misses a lot of action while the team is exhausted against top dozen caliber opponents.

Some storylines…

Kyrie at the Quarter

We haven’t had much of a chance to talk about Kyrie Irving in our Cavonometry series. It’s not like he’s been a non-story. He’s having a terrific season. It’s just that he wasn’t dealing with dramatic issues in a way that’s been making news. (Well, not since being slammed for the team’s low assist totals way back in that Utah game).

*LeBron James has lost some physicality in a way that’s impossible to miss. Everyone was talking about it. We found a way to put some numbers on it. (He may have learned Friday night that he needs more rest before games!)

*Kevin Love was having trouble settling into the new offense. Being more aggressive about getting him looks inside the arc helped solve that issue.

Kyrie has some ebb and flow to his shooting performances (like everyone else). But, there hasn’t been anything compelling in terms of the team storyline. What’s worth noting? He’s been more attentive and energetic on defense, as Nylon Calculus contributor Seth Partnow noted in tweets as soon as it started happening many games ago. Stat-wise, there’s some very good news…

Thru Thursday’s Game

He’s shooting 50% on two-pointers (up from 46% last season)

He’s shooting 40% on three-pointers (up from 36% last season)

He’s only turning the ball over 1.7 times per game (down from 2.7 last season)

His PER is 21.5 this season (up from 20.1 last season)

He’s lost some of his offensive responsibilities because James is running the point quite a bit (particularly in crunch time). But a usage rate drop from 28.2 to 23.0 seems to be trimming missed shots and turnovers from his resume. He did have a very poor start Friday night in New Orleans, perhaps influenced by his knee scare or lingering pain from the prior night. He turned 0 of 9 shooting into 7 of 19 with a strong finish.

The Quarterly Report Card for Two-Point Defense

The 63% allowed inside the arc against New Orleans was the worst performance of the season. The “typical” performance at the 22-game mark centers around 52% allowed. The Cavaliers do better than that when fresh within their own conference. Here’s the number line from best to worst (medians in parenthesis)…

38-42-43-44-44-47-47-48-50-51-(52-52)-52-53-54-54-54-57-58-59-62-63

Tug-of-War

Two losses drop the midpoint back to just above zero in the season-long number line of regulation scoreboard margins (the overtime game vs. Chicago goes in as a zero).

-19, -17, -13, -9, -9, -5, -5, -2, -2, 0, (1, 3), 3, 4, 7, 9, 12, 14, 22, 26, 32, 33

On the whole, it’s a team that will be fine in the East if everyone stays healthy. There’s just not much margin for error here in terms of being a top contender though. Lack of quality depth makes Cleveland more fragile than the other top teams in the East. And, in terms of the league championship, there’s a lot of improvement that needs to happen before Cleveland would be perceived as a head-to-head series favorite over the best in the West.

Market Report (thru 22 games)

4-8 ATS in their first 12 games (ending with a 6-in-9 fatigue stretch), followed by:

Cleveland (-11) beat Orlando 106-74 (covered by 21)

Cleveland (-7.5) beat Washington 113-87 (covered by 18.5)

Cleveland (-10) beat Indiana 109-97 (covered by 2)

Cleveland (-10.5) beat Milwaukee 111-108 (missed by 7.5)

Cleveland (-7.5) won at New York 90-87 (missed by 10.5)

Cleveland (+4.5) won at Toronto 105-91 (covered by 18.5)

Cleveland (-8) won at Brooklyn 110-88 (covered by 14)

Cleveland (-6) beat Toronto 105-101 (missed by 2)

Cleveland (+7) lost at Oklahoma City 103-92 (missed by 2)

Cleveland (+1.5) lost at New Orleans 119-114 (missed by 3.5)

For the full season, Cleveland is 9-13 ATS. At the end of regulation, market expectations have been too high by 28 points through 22 games.

That will be it for game-by-game boxscore coverage. Cleveland looks to have settled into consistent plans of attack on both sides of the floor. There’s still time to improve up on “they are what they are” if they can trade for some bench help and possibly a shot blocker. But, this isn’t a team of mystery. The market has grown confident in its pricing when the team is at full strength. No need to ride herd on every result.

Look for additional stories and commentary down the road at this website as the second “LeBron era” in Cleveland continues to play out. And don’t forget that game-by-game Pace and Efficiency stats for the Cavs and all other 29 NBA teams based on ACTUAL possession totals can be monitored on our Team Possession page. The default takes you to Cleveland. Use the scroll function to find any other team. Programmer Daryl Blackport added a filter Friday night that lets you see efficiency performances against top 10 offenses and defenses.

Thanks for reading through the first quarter of the season. Can’t wait to see what’s ahead!