Josh Smith Might Have Been Bad for Pistons, But He’s Not The Worst

Dec 21, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Josh Smith (6) drives around Brooklyn Nets forward Joe Johnson (7) during the first quarter at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Josh Smith, the 2004 draft pick out of high school, has always been a polarizing topic in the NBA community. This is especially true within the basketball analytics community. How does one measure a Josh Smith, who racks up the highlights but continues to make boneheaded offensive decisions? What is his value?

Today, the Detroit Pistons decided they were done with Smith. They waived the 29-year-old forward and keyed up the seldom-used stretch provision on his contract to create more cap space. Essentially, the Pistons franchise will be paying Smith a lot of money to not play for them for many years into the future.

Does this mean that Josh Smith is a net negative presence and would be a wasteful player on any NBA team? No. Does it mean he’s below “replacement level” in the entire NBA? Probably not. On Twitter today, you’ll see plenty of commentators commenting that no NBA team should sign Smith (like here) and that fans who want Smith on their team are clueless (like here). Those people are misguided.

Here’s the thing about sports and numbers: The stats will tell us what we want to hear more often than not. If you want to point out that Josh Smith is the NBA’s worst shooter of the last decade, that’s probably accurate. If you want to share that the Pistons’ Net Rating is 10.3 points per 100 possessions better without Smith this season, that’s certifiably true. If you want to say something outrageous about how Josh Smith doesn’t belong in the NBA and any team that signs him is idiotic, you can’t really say that with numbers.

The Sacramento Kings, the silly organization behind Draft 3.0 analytics crowd-sourcing and cherry-picking on defense, are likely the favorites to sign Smith. That gave even more ammo to the basketball analytics Twitter army today. Of course, the Kings tried to trade for Smith this offseason — a move pushed by owner Vivek Ranadive over now-fired coach Michael Malone — but couldn’t reach a deal. Twitter loves poking fun at the Kings, so this was gold for the usual folks.

But look: The Houston Rockets also have interest in Smith, per Yahoo! Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski. That should seem odd to the commentators on Twitter. The Rockets are the team with GM Daryl Morey, one of the two founders of the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. The Rockets are the franchise with the innovative Rio Grande Valley Vipers D-League system. The Rockets are the team destroying all NBA records with 41.7 percent of shots as three-pointers this season.

The Rockets are the anti-Kings. And Houston’s interest should be a clear enough gut-check for those who love to hate Josh Smith and love to create narratives about his ability in the league. Yes, he’s rattled the feathers of coaches. Stan Van Gundy obviously tired of his act within two months. Yes, his athleticism and defensive skill are not the same they used to be in his peak Atlanta days. But Josh Smith has a place in the NBA. He has an NBA physicality and has proven high-level value in the past. It’s a matter of whether a new situation, role and mentality can help him regain that value.

It’s very difficult to take Smith away from the context of his role in Detroit. Whether he went against Van Gundy’s wishes or not, we can’t know. But we do know that Smith was a 25.3 percent usage player. We know that he averaged 14 shots per game. We know that he had a Rajon Rondo-like 41.7 True Shooting Percentage. But within a smaller role, with a coach forcing him away from long shots and closer to the paint, could he be effective? Could this release humble him to be a significant contributor to a contender?

I don’t think we can answer that concretely. That is why scouting reports, one-on-one interviews and the like still have value in professional sports. Josh Smith is more than just a number. He’s more than just a shot chart. And in the coming weeks and months, he could be just the latest Monta Ellis-like example of a player overcoming a bad system/role fit and some bad stats to remake his career.

For the Pistons, the release is a chance to move on from the franchise’s latest grave mistake since their success in the early 2000s. More minutes can be allocated to youngsters like Andre Drummond, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Spencer Dinwiddie to assess their long-term value. Surprisingly, the Pistons are not a young team. But they’re a very bad team at 5-23. With draft picks in the years to come and more cap flexibility, perhaps Van Gundy can now begin crafting the team he wants for the future.