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A confession: I like Josh Smith. There, I said it.
Since I don’t know him personally, naturally I’m referring to things like this:
and this:
However, I may actually like The Idea of Josh Smith more than Actual Josh Smith.
Case in point:
There’s an important difference there. The Idea of Josh Smith is a dunking and shot-blocking Destroyer of Opponents, an absolute force to be reckoned with. A player with the speed of a 3 and the power of a 4. Occasionally, we’ve witnessed this:
At his best, Smith is a smart decision-maker focused largely at the rim and barely dabbling from mid-range on a talented 53-win team, which included Joe Johnson, Al Horford, and Jamal Crawford. That Hawks team was a +8.0 Net Rating when Smith was on the court.
However, Actual Josh Smith also exists. All too often, this is what we’ve seen:
It can be difficult to recognize as the same player; vague, scattered activity. Playing in a logjammed front court in Detroit, the Pistons have posted a -14.0 Net Rating with J-Smoove on the court this season, and a -13.0 last season; likely one of several factors ultimately leading to Smith’s release on Monday.
Thus, the question: What is J-Smoove, and how does his next team unleash The Idea instead of The Actual?
Using shot data since his rookie season (as usual, huge gratitude to Daryl Blackport!), we can compare Smith’s Hunting Grounds each year (remember TeamSPACE), to understand where he is most successful and the amount of space his shot activity occupies. From this perspective, Smith’s career nicely self-organizes into three categories:
The Beginning:
The Ideal:
The Actual:
But here’s where it gets interesting. A correlation of Smith’s shooting court space to his teams’ winning percentage is -0.601. Negative zero point six oh one! That’s pretty strong, indicating that as Josh Smith reduces his shooting footprint, his team is consistently more successful. It would seem that small doses of J-Smoove — and a continued focus at the rim — are the most optimal. Precision, precision, precision. It’s hardly a coincidence that the Hawks best seasons were Smith’s most precise Hunting Grounds, and Smith’s Pistons are mimicking his early days in the ATL:
From this perspective, Antonio McDyess is an interesting comparison. Both players began their careers phenomenally athletic and entertaining, then each was marred by setbacks during their NBA midlife (injury for one, shot selection for the other). McDyess did an impressive job transforming post injury into a valuable player for several playoff teams. Per basketball-reference, here’s how their +/- per 100 possessions compare:
Seemingly, J-Smoove is a perfect fit with the Rockets — as rumored. If less space = success, and more structure (as well as primary scorers) helps reduce freelancing shot selection, then Houston is the place to be. At this point, the court optimization of Space City (adeptly nicknamed) has been fairly well documented, but as a reminder:
However, before Smith automatically joins The Beard and Dwight, recall the McDyess parallels. When Dice got on board, the Pistons and Spurs were proven winners. The Rockets haven’t won anything, yet. Does that even matter? Hard to say, really, as this school of thought delves into concepts of philosophy, chemistry and championship pedigree that are fairly abstract.
Personally, I’ve seen what the Houston system has done to one of my favorites, James Harden (college allegiance dies hard). Regardless of efficiency, the offense resembles a video game with the cheat codes turned on (h/t Nate Jones). Is that the system that maximizes The Idea of Josh Smith, or is Dallas, Phoenix,Los Angeles, or New York, et al. the better fit? Again, hard to say, but we do have a sense of what right looks like. An efficient Josh Smith offense puts a premium on where he scores from, and limits his jump shot opportunities to a handful of consistent locations. The team that does that may have the missing piece they need to contend this season.
Data and photo support provided courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball-Reference.com, and data extraordinaire Darryl Blackport.