Predicting Where The Top Remaining MLB Free Agents Will Land
By Stephen Igoe
Though a number of big moves have already been made this offseason, there are still a few impact names available among the remaining MLB free agents.
The Major League Baseball offseason still has a few months remaining, but the Hot Stove is winding down. Many of the top names have been picked over, but there are still a few impact players left on the market, led by the likes of Max Scherzer and James Shields.
Below, we take a look at what each of the final free agents could be looking at in terms of contract demands, and where they could land.
Max Scherzer
Arguably the top free agent of the offseason, Scherzer remains unsigned heading into the final stages of 2014. The 30-year-old right-hander is being patient while waiting for the right deal, much in part thanks to his infamous agent Scott Boras, who’s never afraid to wait as long as it takes.
There have been a number of teams linked to Scherzer. In fact, there have probably been more rumored to be interested in the 2013 Cy Young Award winner than not, making it difficult to speculate where exactly he will land. His former team, the Tigers, would like to bring him back, but with David Price expected to hit free agency next season and money tight overall, Detroit could be unable to match an opposing team’s offer.
Scherzer is said to be looking for a long-term contract upwards of $200 million, or at least in line with what Jon Lester received from the Cubs (6 years, $155 million). The Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers aren’t afraid to spend money, but there hasn’t been much speculation tying Scherzer to any of them. That said, a lot of the rumors at this stage are just posturing on both ends. With the Yankees and Red Sox both needing a legitimate ace to come in and lead pitching staffs that struggled last season, perhaps one will find a way to pony up the money necessary for Scherzer’s liking.
If the market holds firm and no one is willing to go up to Boras’ demands, the Tigers could very well get back in the mix. This one is far from over.
Prediction: New York Yankees
James Shields
The teams that can’t afford Scherzer will likely be jockeying it out for Shields, the second-best starting pitching arm left on the market. Shields has pitched more than 220 innings and posted an ERA of 3.52 or under over the past four seasons, so he’s a proven and durable arm. However, that workload could make teams hesitant to commit to a five-year, $110-million contract that Shields is reported to be asking for.
The Giants, the Red Sox and Yankees are believed to be the three main suitors for Shields, and all three of those teams have the money to get it done. After San Francisco and Boston both went down to the wire in the Lester sweepstakes, Shields is likely their top backup plan.
With each team likely to offer a similar contract, it could come down to where Shields feels he has the best chance of winning a championship, or where he’s most comfortable.
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Asdrubal Cabrera
The veteran infielder is an intriguing option for a number of teams. Cabrera’s natural position is shortstop, but he also has plenty of experience at second base and a little at third. He’s a switch-hitter that has hit consistently throughout much of his career, though last season saw his numbers dip a bit (he hit just .241/.307/.387) between the Indians and Nationals.
The Athletics, Cardinals, Mets, Twins, Giants and Phillies have all expressed interest in Cabrera. After losing Jed Lowrie, Oakland could use Cabrera to fill a hole at shortstop. The same goes for the Phillies, who are now without Jimmy Rollins.
The Giants are looking at the 29-year-old Cabrera for third base.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Colby Rasmus
Not many people at all are talking about Rasmus. The 28-year-old left-handed slugger went through a miserable 2014 campaign that saw him hit .225/.287/.448 over 346 at-bats for the Blue Jays, but he’s also just a season removed from posting much better offensive numbers and an impressive 4.8 WAR.
He’s a bounce back candidate and he shouldn’t cost a fortune this late in the process. Rasmus also has some impressive pop and the ability to play center field (although his defensive numbers have been up and down). Rasmus has hit 23, 22 and 18 home runs over the last three seasons, so the power is still there.
Peter Gammons recently tweeted that the Orioles are being pushed to sign Rasmus to a one-year deal, but another team that makes some sense are the Mariners. Seattle recently traded for right-handed hitting outfielder Justin Ruggiano. Bringing in Rasmus as a platoon partner in right field with Ruggiano could be a nice recipe for success.
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Nori Aoki
With the Royals having signed Alex Rios earlier this December, that likely leaves Aoki to sign elsewhere. Aoki has enjoyed a solid three seasons since moving to the MLB, posting a batting average of .288, .286 and .285 in three consecutive years. His defense is solid, but his skill-set overall is a bit limited, so he’s a fallback plan for a few teams.
Reports indicate clubs such as the Orioles, Mariners and Reds are interested. Whichever team loses out on the Rasmus sweepstakes could very well wind up with Aoki.
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles