Dec 28, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Dion Waiters (3) and Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0) and Cleveland Cavaliers forward Shawn Marion (31) and Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) sit on the bench during the fourth quarter against the Detroit Pistons at Quicken Loans Arena. The Pistons won 103-80. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
This Cavs/Pistons game is ridiculous. If you could watch everything except whether or not a shot dropped, you'd swear Cavs were up.
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) December 28, 2014
For not the first time this season, the Cleveland Cavaliers suffered a loss which counts as somewhere between disappointing, concerning and embarrassing. Against a Detroit team seeking a new lease on life following the curious release of Josh Smith, Cleveland turned a strong first quarter into a 23 point loss, buried under the Pistons’ deluge of made threes. The reaction was predictable and to some extent natural; if a team as notoriously poor from outside as Detroit is lighting you up, your defense must be really bad. Combined with poor offensive execution, it’s all indicative of the malaise which has settled over this Cavs team, which of course reflects poorly on LeBron James, Kevin Love and Coach David Blatt. Or so the narratives go.
The main problem with the above is it’s not really true. Yes, the Pistons won going away, blowing the doors off the Cavs in terms of deep shooting. The 36 more points Detroit scored on threes was more than enough to explain the victory. And therein sits the lie within the story everyone wants to tell. “LeBron in Crisis” is good copy. “Pistons Enjoy Good Fortune” is not, but it is probably more accurate. Simply put, Detroit shot unusually well even considering the shots they took, while the Cavs were unusually inaccurate.
Not to say the only reason Cleveland lost was bad luck. Shot making is an important part of “playing well,” but based simply on the locations and defensive pressure exerted on both team’s three point shooting, there was a 35-point swing from expectations. Leaving aside the identities of the shooters for the moment and assuming league average shooting here’s a comparison of the actual and expected shooting:
For all the sturm und drang about Cleveland’s offenses, they generated 11 wide open three point looks last night, yet made only one. At the same time, Brandon Jennings is making this:
Overall, Cleveland actually got better looks over the course of the game, producing an XeFG of 49.1% while Detroit’s was only 48.3% based on the mix of shots. Those figures don’t take into account such things as Cleveland’s poor rim protection, or the possibly widely differing abilities of individual players to effectively contest shots, but they do illustrate this was not a game the Pistons dominated in any way except for the end result.