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With roughly one-third of the season in the books, the Washington Wizards are off to a hot start and are among the elite of the Eastern Conference. Now a legitimate part of the MVP conversation, team leader John Wall has become a force to be reckoned with. This season continues his impressively steady statistical incline since his arrival to DC in 2010, per Basketball Reference:
There’s some impressive indicators in those charts, including:
- Non-trivial increases in his True Shooting percentages each season
- A widening gap in Net Rating: ORtg increasing every year as DRtg decreases every season
- Consistent annual increases in Assist percentage; although somewhat negated by slight increases in Turnover percentage
Anecdotally, I’ve been able witness firsthand as Wall convincingly led the Wiz past the Cavs, and overpowered CP3 and the Clippers (full disclosure: I also saw him struggle last week against Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and the Phoenix Suns). Big wins against top-tier teams; not to mention bragging rights in the Best Point Gawd Alive debate. Beyond the victories, it never hurts to take advantage of the rare national stage for the Wiz on Christmas Day:
And for good measure, to prove it wasn’t a fluke:
Needless to say, John Wall has arrived. That early max contact Wall signed two seasons ago is starting to look like a well-timed bargain. So what gives? How has Wall’s game changed over time?
From a Hunting Ground (TeamSPACE!) perspective, there’s this (click each to enlarge):
Much like the steady increase of his stats, John Wall’s shot selection continues to grow — morphing upward and inward, in seemingly very good ways. As his career has progressed, Wall appears to be abandoning much of the midrange, baseline, and corner jumpshot activity, and settling into three areas:
- At the rim
- An elbow
- One of the three-point wings
He’s streamlining over time. While the strong play of his teammates certainly has an impact on this, I would argue this is also indicative of improved decision-making. From a court usage standpoint, there are some other trends emerging:
While these correlations are not nearly as impressive as the Josh Smith ones, it does not appear to be a mere fluke that Wall’s highest eFG% coincides with the lowest court space of his career. Obviously this season is still young, but again, the signs are promising. So promising that it begs the question: how do John Wall’s first 4 1/3 seasons compare historically? Well… not too shabby:
John Wall is consistently higher than Steve Nash and lower than Chris Paul, specifically in FGs made, FTs made and attempted, rebounds, steals and assists (all per 100 possessions). Wall is worse than Nash and CP3 in ORtg and DRtg per 100 possessions; however, his Box Plus Minus (BPM) and VORP are higher than Nash and lower than CP3. Given this information, it would seem reasonably safe to say that at this point of his career John Wall is statistically trending towards Steve Nash. That’s pretty good company, to say the least.
It’s not just statistics. Apparently Wall emulated Nash’s game going back to his single season at the University of Kentucky.
Comparing the shooting stats for Wall and Nash, there’s a similar increase in FG% each season for both players from Midrange (10-16ft) and Long Range 2s (16ft to the 3pt arc). Recalling Wall’s shot patterns over time, this correlates well with his reduction in mid- and long-range 2-pointers. Less shots, more makes; always positive. The other main commonality: Wall and Nash have sharp decreases in the percentage of their shots taken from 3-10ft from the hoop. This too is indicative of the upward shot migration Wall has experienced over time. So if Wall follows this trajectory, the precision continues to sharpen over time:
Nash’s Hunting Grounds gradually, seemingly deliberately, and systematically gravitated towards the middle of the court. In his dual-MVP prime with the Suns, Nash was symmetrically deadly from three areas: at the rim, at the elbows (coming off Amar’e pick and rolls), and both the 3-point wings. These are the same three areas Wall has matured into this season. Although unlike Nash, Wall has not yet developed on both sides of the court for the elbow and 3-point wing (“yet” being the key word there).
Wall is in the process of removing shot clutter at this point of his career. He’s shown Nashian flashes of activity last season from both 3-point wings, which may develop by the end of this season as well. As soon as the clutter is removed, we should expect to see his peak effectiveness over the next 5-6 seasons. Said differently: the first phase of Wall’s career is closing, and the next phase holds much promise. Interestingly, Nash was the league MVP in his 9th season. Wall reaching that honor so soon seems unlikely, although the “MVP Voters Are Down On Lebron And Want A New Candidate To Emerge A La Derrick Rose” potential is certainly in the air (yes, Steph Curry, I know). Regardless of that award, John Wall is hitting his stride and poised for greatness going forward.
Data and photo support provided courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball-Reference.com, and data extraordinaire Darryl Blackport.