Dec 26, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) drives past Milwaukee Bucks guard Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) in the third quarter at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to the third week of Nylon Calculus’ Power Rankings! Recall that the idea is to take a team’s Net Rating (the best predictor of season wins), adjust it mildly for schedule, players returning from injury, and exaggerated differences between Net Rating and wins, and then weight that rating by the rate of change of a team’s performance from the past week. In short: take how the team’s performed over the season, and weight it for how the team is “trending” in performance.
There’s another minor tweak in methodology from last week. Instead of doing all the adjustments to the team’s total Net Rating, I’m now instead basing the rankings on their Net Rating from the past 25 games.
The idea was rather simple: power rankings are supposed to be silly and fun ways of looking at recent performance, and taking the whole season’s Net Rating insures that there will be very little turnover from week to week. So, instead, I’ll take the most recent 25 games, which ensures a (relatively) stable sample, while still giving a more recent and volatile picture of the current NBA landscape.
As well, because there are so many tweaks in the formula that are visible only to me, I’m now including the team’s final “Rank Scores” in the power ranking chart, so that everyone can see how the team’s ratings came to rank them where they’re currently ranked. I also, for reference, included a column of where the team was in the rankings last week.
And now, on to the rankings!
Top 5
- LA Clippers: Over their last 25 games the Clippers have quietly been a top 4 team, they’ve had a hard schedule so far (especially in December), and they got a huge win against Golden State on Christmas. It’s tempting to sleep on the Clippers, but they’ve been returning to form of late.
- Toronto Raptors: The Raptors have found themselves with the best offense in the league as of last night (and maybe the best of all time), edging out the Mavericks, while maintaining a defense near the top half of the league. There’s a lot to worry about with these Raps, but no denying that they’re an incredible basketball team.
- Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks have been climbing these rankings in meteoric fashion, behind a team that can shoot the lights out and pass the ball with dizzying precision worthy of the name “Spurs East.” The Hawks are looking like legitimate contenders right now, and they’d dare you to tell them otherwise.
- Portland Trailblazers: The Blazers fell a bit as their games in the last few weeks have been a bit too close despite the second-easiest schedule in the West so far, but this team is still burning villages down, and Damian Lillard will not hesitate to plunder. Watch out for these guys.
- Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder have been absolutely monstrous over their last 20 games, and even with Durant still out with ankle issues they largely keep improving in every game that they play, allowing them to finally sneak into the top 5. I doubt that they’ll stay this low on the list for too long.
Bottom 5
- Minnesota Timberwolves: Yes, the Wolves have been disastrously injured, but there’s no denying: of their last 25 games, they have the lowest Net Rating of any other team in the league. They’re in the midst of a 7 game win streak, in which they’ve been admittedly tough, making games against Indiana, the Lakers, and Denver close, but even adjusting for their difficult schedule and higher-than-their-rating win total, there’s no skirting around what this team has been.
- Philadelphia 76ers: HALLELUJAH, THE SIXERS ARE NOT LAST. Somehow, the Sixers have eked out a better-than-league average defense this season, which has been ever better lately. They still sport BY FAR the worst offense in the league, maybe of all time, adjusted for league average, but right now there’s an argument to be made that they’re not even the 2nd worst team in the league, which has to be a huge relief to Philly fans.
- New York Knicks: The Knicks’ Net Rating is better than their record, so there’s an argument to be made that they should even be below the Sixers, here. The Knicks are trying to win but can’t even compete on a level that feels like NBA basketball right now, and that’s on the weight of an easier than average schedule with a player who’s supposed to be elite. This team is a tire fire, and I’m sorry if you have to watch them regularly.
- Orlando Magic: The Magic are fun to watch, but they’ve been flat out bad for a while, and not really getting radically better or worse. For a team that should be, theoretically, making the leap to relevance sometime in the next few seasons, that no pieces they add are seeming to make them un-horrible is maybe a bit worrying.
- LA Lakers: I think what we’re starting to learn about the Lakers is that they might be better than we thought they were…but they’re still just really, really bad.
Other Teams of Interest:
- Boston Celtics: Their wins of late have come against bad teams, but a few wins after their rough last week is a nice boon to this team who’s still surprisingly competitive.
- Charlotte Hornets: Even after a hard loss to the Thunder, you have to wonder if the Hornets really are starting to get themselves together after their 4-game winning streak.
- Chicago Bulls: Despite injuries and almost quietly for such a high profile team, the Bulls have been going streaking, and they don’t want to be left out of the conversation for Eastern Conference Elite.
- Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavs crapped the bed against both Detroit and Miami and they look like a total mess right now. Still, they’ve actually been a really damn good team by point differential over their last 20 games, and it feels weird to move them up in the rankings, but they’re maybe better than the narrative around them wants to admit.
- Golden State Warriors: Since the Bogut injury, their point differential has sneakily dropped from “runaway elite” to “really good,” and the Dubs had some really, really nasty losses to both LA teams this week. There’s certainly nothing to worry about here, but it’s not not a slump, either.
- Houston Rockets: Since the Rox’s elite, league-leading start to the season, this has quietly been a middling team over their last 25 games, with a 1.4 Net Rating and a bottom 8 offense. James Harden is playing like an MVP candidate right now, but the team as a whole is looking shaky.
- Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies had a rough December, ranking only 22nd in Defense for the month, and they’re on a concerning 4 game losing streak. This isn’t a fall from grace in earnest, but they need to start recovering soon if they want to keep the city of Memphis from a panic.
- Miami Heat: It doesn’t get much worse than their loss to Philly, but they had an awful week last week and their beatdown of Cleveland on Christmas may indicate something of an upward march.
- New Orleans Pelicans: This team seems to just struggle putting together a whole quality week: over their last 25 they’ve been a negative point differential team, and they lost hard to a bad Indiana team.
- Phoenix Suns: The Suns are on a nice little winning streak right now. Hopefully it means they’re putting something together. They need it.