Dec 28, 2014; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Rajon Rondo (9) looks to set the play against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first half at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
The trade deadline is still weeks away, but a flurry of activity right before the holidays had two huge names changing teams. Rajon Rondo was traded to the Dallas Mavericks and Josh Smith was released by the Detroit Pistons, ending up with the Houston Rockets. In both cases, offensive fit was one of the biggest question marks.
The Mavericks offense had been humming along, at or near the top of the league in efficiency since Opening Night. With a deep roster of carefully cultivated role players and a system of endless cycling pick-and-roll variations, there was potential for Rondo to be a systemic disruption. Used to holding the ball for long stretches in Boston and an inconsistent shooter from the outside, he didn’t appear to fit in the Mavericks’ structured back court role, on or off the ball. He’s played just five games with the Mavericks but we can already see how their offense appears to be changing with him in the lineup.
Here is what the Mavericks’ shot chart (in points per shot) looked like before Rondo arrived.
You can see that things are focused around the rim and three-point line. The Mavericks were fantastic in the paint, great from both corners and strong on the right wing. There is very little mid-range activity and what there is, mostly related to Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis, is focused on the elbows.
Here is what their shot chart (again, in points per possession) looks like in the five games Rondo has played with Dallas.
There is slightly less activity in the corners, a lot more mid-range shots, and the activity in the paint is spread out a little bit more. We can also see some of these changes numerically. The columns on the chart below cover the Mavericks’ numbers with Rondo on the floor and then their numbers without Rondo, from before the trade.
The Mavericks offense has been much less efficient with Rondo on the floor. The biggest changes appear to be are in the distribution of mid-range shots and three-pointers from above the break. In addition the Mavericks have been shooting far worse on those above the break three-pointers.
Obviously this is just a five game sample. Three of the five games were against defenses that rank in the top eight in defensive efficiency — Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Atlanta. This is not nearly enough data to draw any definitive conclusions about the new organism that will be created by the interaction between Rondo and the Mavericks’ preexisting offense. But clearly things will be changing.
Josh Smith joining the Rockets also raised a lot of questions about fit. Houston’s offense is strict about avoiding mid-range jump shots, a shot that Smith shoots frequently and terribly. He can be a force on the interior but both Atlanta and Detroit were unsuccessful in convincing him to anchor his offensive areas of activity around the basket. Smith’s and the Rockets’ shot selections are mutually exclusive, so something was going to shift. So far, it’s been Smith.
Here’s is Smith’s shot chart with the Pistons this season.
And here is his shot chart for the three games he’s played with the Rockets.
This is dramatically different. This looks like the kind of offensive decision making we always hoped we’d see from Smith. Again, small sample size — three games and just 34 field goal attempts. Still, it appears that the Rockets have a toehold in helping Smith focus his talents into area where he can succeed.
Rondo and Smith, the Rockets and Mavericks, will continue to evolve over the rest of the season. But in the aftermath of these roster changes there has already been some significant metamorphosis.