NC Power Rankings: Warriors Back on Top, Pistons Explode

January 2, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) celebrates with guard Klay Thompson (11) against the Toronto Raptors during the fourth quarter at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Raptors 126-105. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the first edition of the Nylon Calculus Power Rankings where the methodology didn’t change! For the first week we’re sailing through with the same method as last week, that is, we’re taking a team’s performance over it’s last 25 games, adjusting everything for strength of schedule, players returning for injury and players being traded, and wins that are disproportionate to their point differential, and then we weight the result with the rate of change for how that team has performed over the last week relative to the week before in order to rank teams based on their last week of play, like every other power ranking!

This week saw a return to form for teams like the Warriors and 76ers who are now back on top and bottom, respectively, and huge shifts for teams like the Pistons, Knicks, Cavaliers, and Raptors. Let’s have a look!

The Top Five

1. Golden State Warriors: The Warriors are back to the top of the league after dismantling Philly by over 40 points per 100 possessions, and more importantly, after crushing without mercy a Toronto and Oklahoma City team looking to usurp the crown as top team in the league, and they did so still without Bogut. This is a ridiculous team, and they’re not looking to show any mercy to mere plebes right now.
2. Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks have had the “but they have the easiest schedule in the league” thing holding them back, but after a Western Conference road trip last week, and a methodical takedown of two of the Western Conference elite in Portland and the Clippers this week, that’s not even a fair assessment anymore. The Hawks are soaring.
3. Dallas Mavericks: I have to include a disclaimer: I have actively been trying since the first edition of these rankings to mitigate the Mavericks’ height on the rankings, here; they’re clear outliers in point differential, and for a long time had an easy SoS, and their height on the rankings has allowed me to figure out what adjustments needed to be made. Still, no matter what I do to keep them down (I mean, that’s not the real goal, but it’s an effect), this team is just really good. They keep winning when they need to, and with Rondo on the squad this team is defending like a top 10 defensive outfit right now. Scary stuff.
4. LA Clippers: This team is still flying under the radar a bit, probably because they’re playing a lot of really close games where there should be blowouts. Still, they’re beating a bunch of good teams, and have a league elite point differential over the last 20 games despite a tough schedule. This is a really good team.
5. Oklahoma City Thunder: Kevin Durant returned with a freaking vengeance, and this is a team out for blood now. They got pistol whipped by the killer Warrriors, but otherwise look great. The most important part about this team is that when they win, they win big, and when they lose, games are generally really close. They might actually be a little better than they look, and over the last 20 they look elite. The addition of Dion Waiters didn’t add much statistically, but we’ll have to see what kind of impact he has in practice.

The Bottom Five

1. Philadelphia 76ers: The Sixers are back on the bottom, and all is right with the world. They lost two games by more than 40 points per 100 possessions last week, and to be honest I didn’t even know losses could get that bad so casually. They’ve had a really solid defense for a little while, impressive for maybe the worst team ever, but that really just highlights how horrifying this team is at actually scoring. Watching them try to score is like watching a snuff film.
2. New York Knicks: They got docked for Melo finally sitting out, and for the loss of Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith for basically nothing. This team is almost literally only throwing out half of its talent on any given night now, and they’ve had 5 straight games of losing by 15 points per 100 possessions or more. At a certain point, this just starts being really sad.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: Andrew Wiggins put together a really nice stretch last week, and it looks like he might be figuring the NBA game out, which should be thrilling. On the other hand, the Wolves are on a 12 game losing streak right now and have no one playing right now who seems to really know how to play basketball except consummate professional Thaddeus Young and the aforementioned rookie who’s still just “kinda figuring it out.” There’s a lot for Wolves fans to be excited about in a few years, but this is a really bad basketball team.
4. Orlando Magic: The Magic are particularly discouraging because it’s starting to feel like they’ve stopped being feisty. Over the last 20 games, they haven’t been unexpectedly close in games like they used to be, and if you’re an Orlando fan you’d have to hope that a team that’s, right now, only missing it’s big get from this year’s draft would be a lot better than it has been.
5. Miami Heat: Bosh is back and Wade is playing ok, and you have to imagine that this is not this bad…but there’s really no way to look at the numbers lately and say that this isn’t a bottom 5 team. It’s hard not to want to like this team, so hopefully they get it together kind of soon.

Other Teams of Interest

• Brooklyn Nets: This team is absurdly confusing. Some nights they lose by 20+ to Indiana, and then other nights they take the surging Dallas Mavericks to overtime. The Nets are starting to look pretty decent over their last month though; they put together 3 quality wins before their recent losses to the Heat and Mavs.
• Chicago Bulls: The Bulls just can’t seem to climb into the elite top of the rankings because they can’t seem to put together a really solid, killer week, where they beat a bunch of good teams, or a bunch of bad teams by a lot. They’re super inconsistent, and they haven’t shown that they can really turn it on…yet.
• Cleveland Cavaliers: Having to adjust the Cavaliers’ ranking for the lost pythagorean wins of LeBron James and Kyrie Irving obliterated this team. They’ll get their stars back and move back up in the rankings, but even a nudge up for losing a player who was actively hurting them in Dion Waiters and gaining (somewhat) useful pieces in Shumpert and JR Smith couldn’t make up for how bad they’ve been since the King sat down.
• Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets were competitive with a strong Chicago team, they took care of business against Minnesota, and they annihilated a great Grizzlies squad. The Nuggets haven’t proven that they’re anything yet, but they’re feeling good for now, at least.
• Detroit Pistons: Holy cow, the Pistons shed Josh Smith like he was extra gravity training gear in Dragon Ball Z, and all of a sudden the whole team is infinitely better. Not only have they won 5 straight, but it’s been by an average of over 18 points per game, and despite a point differential around -3 for the season, it’s only -1.2 over their last 20 games. This team might be a legitimate playoff team, and Josh Smith may really be that bad.
• Houston Rockets: Speaking of Josh Smith…the Rockets have continued a slide that started last week, and the Smoove effect at least seems to be real. Over their last 25 games this team has been incredibly mediocre, and they’ve lost 6 of their last 10. If this ship isn’t sinking, it’s at least a little leaky.
• Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies have a great record, and appear to be a great team, but they’re point differential of only around 3 over their last 25 games doesn’t match what we think of them, an their horrible loss to Denver caps a rough week.
• Phoenix Suns: The Suns started ripping their killer win streak last week, and even if they’re not still streaking, they’ve been keeping up that performance since. This team is starting to look like people hoped they would before the season started, and you have to hope they’ll try and make the playoff race a mite more interesting towards the end.
• Portland Trailblazers: The Blazers falling out of the top 5 has less to do with the Blazers than it has to do with the teams that overtook them. They’ve been playing great, great basketball, and only their loss to Atlanta and closer than it needed to be game against the Lakers keeps them from crossing to the top 5 again.
• Toronto Raptors: The Raps are starting to slide a bit as the dangers of having a below average defense — even with a historic offense — are starting to bare their teeth.