Draft Prospect Watch: Checking in on the Top 30
By Layne Vashro
Jan 3, 2015; Durham, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Matt Jones (13) and center Jahlil Okafor (15) and guard Tyus Jones (5) and forward Justise Winslow (12) watch as teammate guard Quinn Cook (not pictured) shoots a technical foul shot in their game against the Boston College Eagles at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports
The 2014 class was hyped as one of the greatest collections of talent in decades. However, as the season moved along, it became clear to most of us following closely that those expectations were way too high. Early NBA returns support this pessimism, since the only rookies showing much to get excited about are non-lotto picks hailing from the Dinaric Alps (one of whom was drafted several years ago). This has been a bit of a downer for draft prospect-obsessed folks, especially after the lowly class of 2013. Thankfully, there is hope on the horizon. It is still early, but the 2015 class is filled to the brim with talent.
Not only are there a lot of strong early performers this season, but unlike most years, nearly all of the preseason freshman phenoms are playing like legitimate top prospects. The only obvious exception are the Kansas kids, but recently even Oubre is starting to play up to his billing. Not only that, but many less-heralded freshman are emerging as serious prospects, and several veteran prospects have made an unexpected leap in production. This is shaping up to be a top-tier draft class with both top-end talent and depth.
Early non-conference schedules often include David vs. Goliath matchups that pervert the numbers even when controlling for strength-of-schedule. However, in my experience, the numbers do start to stabilize around now. Players’ scores will wiggle around from here, and a few players will emerge or drop from the picture, but don’t expect the final numbers to be dramatically different from what you see below. Still… I recommend using this less as a tool for discriminating amongst the top prospects, and more as a guide for which players you should be paying attention to as we enter the heart of the season.
Below, I list the top 30 players based on my EWP projection metric. I include some notes, which I try to keep brief. I am saving the more nuanced analysis for later in the season. For now, I just want to leave you with the disclaimer that I absolutely do not view these numbers as gospel. They do a good job in out-of-sample testing, but they necessarily gloss over a lot of detail and context that ultimately should be included in a full evaluation.
[Listed position is based on a model I designed to project players’ NBA position based on physical profile and collegiate production]
#1. Myles Turner, Texas, Pos: 4.9, EWP: 13.5
Turner put up poor performances in the three major high-school showcase events as a senior. Due at least in part to this, he arrived at Texas with the label of “tantalizing but raw prospect.” This label continues to depress his stock even though his current production is that of a remarkably skilled and dominant college big.
Turner’s shot-blocking and rebounding are as impressive as any other big in the draft, and he appears to be an intelligent and vocal team defender. On offense, he has established himself as an unfair sniper hitting outside shots with volume and efficiency. Shooting numbers are notoriously noisy, but the fact that Turner has hit 89.3% of his free-throws makes me a believer. Turner has flashed the skillset of both a versatile defensive anchor, and a modern floor-stretching big on offense. In his realized form, he could satisfy two of the most important NBA niches by himself.
The only bridle on my optimism is the fact that Turner has disappeared offensively against top talent. He needs to show that he can dominate when he doesn’t have a clear physical advantage before I am 100% sold on his lofty potential.
#2. Jahlil Okafor, Duke, Pos: 4.9, EWP: 12.9
Okafor is the consensus #1 across popular boards and gun-to-head, he would be my pick if the draft were today. Turner has some unique freakishness to his statistical profile, but Okafor is safe as church, and that has value. He has the physical tools, and has shown excellent coordination and polish as the fulcrum of the nation’s best offense. The best argument I have seen against Okafor is that Duke’s excellent floor spacing is a luxury most young bigs are not blessed with. However, my numbers actually include team 3PA/FGA to account for exactly this issue.
#3. Karl Towns, Kentucky, Pos: 5, EWP: 11.8
Towns is less-rounded than Okafor, but looks like the superior defensive anchor. While he hasn’t shown much as a shooter, he is impressively coordinated and supposedly has the potential to be more than just a defensive specialist. Honestly, Kentucky has four bigs producing like lottery picks right now, and that makes it pretty difficult to parse what each would look like in another context. That said, Towns does things that will translate to the NBA and he should be an easy pick if you think his offense has a high ceiling.
#4. D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State, Pos: 1.4, EWP: 11.3
I love Russell as a prospect, but I expect his numbers will drop by the end of the season since they lean too heavily on notoriously noisy three-point efficiency.
#5. Stanley Johnson, Arizona, Pos: 3.3, EWP: 10.8
Johnson was slow out of the gate, but he has now completely recovered, currently drawing Paul Pierce as his top statistical comparison. Similar to D’Angelo, expect his score to drop a bit as his three-point shooting regresses to the mean.
#6. Tyus Jones, Duke, Pos: 1.1, EWP: 10.6
Not many 18-year-olds are capable of carrying a 3.5 A/TOV ratio. Jones also looks like a legitimate threat from range. He is a complete point-guard and that has a lot of appeal, though given the surplus of star 1s in the NBA his value may not be as high as his ability.
#7. Jakob Poeltl, Utah, Pos: 4.9, EWP: 10.3
Poeltl is on the fast track to becoming the greatest Austrian basketball player in history. His surprising dominance is key to Utah’s impressive early performance.
#8. Devin Booker, Kentucky, Pos: 1.9, EWP: 9.5
Booker is playing amazingly efficient basketball for an 18-year-old kid. However, as noted for Russell and Johnson above, don’t be surprised if Booker’s score regresses in the coming weeks since it is dependent on an (likely) unsustainable 49% from range.
#9. Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky, Pos: 4.6, EWP: 8.9
Based on my numbers, Willie doesn’t look much different this season than he did the past two, yet he is shooting up draft boards. We can either view this as the hype finally catching up to the production, or an already impressively productive player making huge leaps in the little things that impact the team beyond the box-score. This more optimistic interpretation is consistent with his jaw-dropping +/- numbers.
#10. Justise Winslow, Duke, Pos: 2.8, EWP: 8.8
Justise’s rating is buoyed by his excellent performance on the USA Junior Team last season. Unless he starts producing better at Duke, his rating is going to fall as this season’s sample grows. Still, he looks like a legitimate prospect, and due to his defensive reputation may be the type who is difficult to capture with only basic statistics.
#11. Delon Wright, Utah, Pos: 1.8, EWP: 8.8
I love Delon Wright. Few guards are better at attacking the rim, and he has proven himself a disruptive defender even against the toughest competition. Wright’s biggest red-flag is shooting, but it looks like he may have improved there some over the summer.
#12. Emmanuel Mudiay, Guangdong, Pos: 1.7, EWP: 8.6
I have less confidence in my Chinese projections than any of the others, so take this score with a large grain of salt. I am yet to watch Mudiay play, but my understanding from highlight clips and scouting reports is that he may actually be a pretty similar player to Delon Wright who is ranked just ahead of him.
#13. Tyler Ulis, Kentucky, Pos: 1, EWP: 8.6
See Tyus Jones above.
#14. Trey Lyles, Kentucky, Pos: 4.3, EWP: 8.4
Yup, another Kentucky big.
#15. Theo Pinson, UNC, Pos: 2.4, EWP: 8.2
Pinson’s scoring is absolutely miserable early in the season, tallying less than 10 points per-40-minutes with a TS% of 44. However, his impressive passing and off-ball numbers scream “potential”.
#16. Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga, Pos: 3.8, EWP: 8.2
Lil’Sabas has proven a ridiculously efficient scorer, but he is going to need to fill the box score better to move up the list.
#17. Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin, Pos: 4.6, EWP: 8
Kaminsky drew a lot of attention with his dominating performance in last season’s NCAA tournament. He has come out this season with improved numbers across the board and I would argue he looks like an obvious late lottery selection.
#18. Kevon Looney, UCLA, Pos: 3.9, EWP: 7.7
Looney is a superior athlete, and this is reflected in his numbers. Offensive rebounds, steals, blocks and free-throw attempts are classic indicators of physical dominance. These are the areas where Looney shines. Everything else looks a bit raw.
#19. Kennedy Meeks, UNC, Pos: 4.7, EWP: 7.3
Meeks looked like an underappreciated prospect last season, and he has now upped the ante by producing like a legitimate top-tier prospect in 2015 (EWP of 11.1). Unfortunately, burly college centers whose only NBA position is undersized 5 are the player-type most often inflated by box-score projections. Read this as a caution against over-excitement, not an excuse to ignore him.
#20. Christian Wood, UNLV, Pos: 4.5, EWP: 7.1
Funny player. Wood is a lanky big with excellent rebounding and shot-blocking ability. He also seems determined to be a stretch-four, efficiency be damned. In his two-year college career, he has tossed up 88 threes, but only connected on 26% of them. To Wood’s credit, his shooting numbers are trending upwards, so maybe he has the right idea.
#21. Mario Hezonja, Barcelona, Pos: 2.7, EWP: 6.6
Take your silly cartoon of a “European player” and turn it on its head. That is Super Mario. Flashy, raw, freakishly athletic, and possibly difficult to coach. Hezonja is a tough player to evaluate with just the numbers, since he is a young guys seeing sparse minutes in at a very high level of competition.
#22. Chris McCullough, Syracuse, Pos: 3.5, EWP: 6.6
McCullough started off hot, but has cooled down in recent weeks. Still, he has some nice looking defensive numbers.
#23. Kristaps Porzingis, Sevilla, Pos: 4.5, EWP: 6.5
Porzingis’ ’14 or 13’ seasons painted him as a clear-cut lottery selection. Unfortunately, this season is not going nearly as well for the lanky Latvian.
#24. Dakari Johnson, Kentucky, Pos: 4.8, EWP: 6.5
Expect Dakari to climb the list as the season wears on. He had a disappointing freshman season, but he got himself into shape this past offseason and is now performing like a top-tier prospect. In fact, his 2015 EWP is the highest of the Kentucky bigs. Only Turner and Okafor are having a better season by my measure.
#25. Kelly Oubre, Kansas, Pos: 2.8, EWP: 6
Another player who is likely to start climbing the board. Oubre looked completely outclassed in Kansas’ first few games. This wasn’t lost on Self, who made him earn any additional minutes. Looking at his performances in recent weeks, Oubre may have figured things out.
#26. Ronde Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona, Pos: 3.1, EWP: 6
Prototypical Arizona small-forward. Plays great defense, moves the ball well, and has a broken shot.
#27. Romelo Trimble, Maryland, Pos: 1.8, EWP: 5.5
Scoring-guard who lives at the line. Given his size, he will need to learn to create for others more efficiently, but you have to love a freshman with what looks like a relatively sustainable 65 TS%.
#28. Trevon Bluiett, Xavier, Pos: 2.5, EWP: 5.4
He is young, he can shoot, and he doesn’t stop ball movement. Nice combination.
#29. Sam Dekker, Wisconsin, Pos: 2.9, EWP: 5.3
Dekker is barely hanging onto a spot in the top-30 due to past seasons. He needs to figure something out soon, because thus far in 2015 he looks like a non-prospect.
#30. Cliff Alexander, Kansas, Pos: 4.6, EWP: 5
Alexander was the #2 RSCI prospect in this class coming out of high-school. He actually isn’t playing that poorly so far, showing tough rebounding, shot-blocking ability, and solid efficiency. However, 13 games into the season he has only managed to tally a single assist and three steals. Some may view this as irrelevant in evaluating bigs, but these stats have historically proven to be important cautionary signs. [Then Cliff went and collected 4 assists in an otherwise poor outing last night after I wrote this]
Next ten on the bubble: Jordan McLaughlin Jerian Grant, Briante Weber, Robert Upshaw, Monte Morris, Shannon Scott, Bobby Portis, Fred VanFleet, Aleksandar Vezenkov, Brice Johnson