Guard-ians of the Suns

flickr | Richard Cull

The Thing in NBA team-building over the past decade has been The Big Three. Usually, a team needs some semblance of their own Big Three to contend. The Phoenix Suns have taken a slightly nuanced approach to the trend. Diminutive in height only, the Phoenix Big Three is a trio of Point Guards: Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, and Isaiah Thomas. Unaccompanied, and depending on your personal preference regarding positions in basketball and its increasingly trivial naming conventions, the Phoenix Suns currently employ three players that would serve as a starting Point Guard for most NBA teams.

Stylistically, per Seth Partnow’s Point Guard Personality Test, all three are score-first drivers (as opposed to pass-first probers). Not only are they similar, they are very close to each other within that quadrant of Seth’s graph. Thus, their styles apparently overlap, and are potentially redundant. Redundancy isn’t necessarily bad; a consistent style for first and second units potentially allows seamless continuity across substitution patterns.

But their play in first and second units isn’t what we’re interested in. It’s when they are combined – the trio forms like Voltron in the Valley of the Sun to create 60% of a fascinating lineup. Often coupled with Markieff Morris and PJ Tucker, this lineup has become coach Jeff Hornacek’s weapon of choice during crunch time. In an admittedly subjective sample, Phoenix tends to go Point Guard-Point Guard-Point Guard with 4:00 minutes to play in close games. It instantly becomes must-see basketball; a deliberate attempt to cause multiple mismatches on both sides of the ball.

For example, here’s Eric Bledsoe exploiting the Wizards on a pick and roll last month (it’s the 5th video); revel in the spacing the ultra-small lineup provides:

And then there’s Goran Dragic doing Dragic things; in this case he’s rolling past the hand-off from Thomas, then an additional pick before hitting a pull-up jumper (10th video):

And finally, Isaiah Thomas is able to leak out and steal a bucket against his former team (7th video):

In each case, spacing is what makes the points possible: either a defensive stop generates quick offense, or a pick and roll with extreme spacing allows room to create. However, is this always the case when these lineups are used? Three point guards. One ball. How does shot selection change?

Enter TeamSPACE…obviously.

First, it’s worth examining each player’s shooting careers heading into this season.

Career prior to 2014-2015:

Similar to Partnow’s findings on their styles of play, each of the three is active from the same three main areas:

• At the rim
• In the corners
• On the rightside 3-point wing

Here’s how each is shooting this season, compared to their respective career Hunting Grounds (reminder: Hunting Grounds measure the most successful clusters of repeated activity; they are mildly predictive and absolutely descriptive of a player’s shooting tendencies):

Goran Dragic:

Dragic has grown this year, more than doubling the shooting space he typically occupies. This is most notable in the new-found mid-range baseline activity.

Eric Bledsoe:

Bledsoe has also increased his court space, although not as drastically as Dragic. For Bledsoe, it’s been an uptick near the elbows, and more diversified 3-point activity.

Isaiah Thomas:

Thomas is an interesting case of addition and subtraction thus far this season. While his elbow jumpers and wing 3-pointers are expanding, the corner threes are gone. Those corner threes were a bit of a staple for him in Sacramento.

Realistically, each of them is shooting somewhat differently than previous seasons. With at least a minimal understanding of each PG’s shooting behavior, we can compare their shot activity when they are all sharing the floor. Remember, this lineup is the Phoenix crunch-time lineup, so shot selection becomes oh-so important in the final minutes of a close game.

Isaiah Thomas:

Thomas is virtually unchanged when paired with both Bledsoe and Dragic. He stays consistent – which is interesting, because there is still no corner 3 activity.

Eric Bledsoe:

Bledsoe’s activity is similar to his normal shot selection this season, but pared down. Gone is the diversified 3-point activity, but at the rim, the corner 3, the elbows, and wing 3-pointer remain.

Goran Dragic:

And then there’s Goran. His map is the most starkly different of the three. His corner 3s (both corners!!), one of the 3-point wings, all the mid-range baseline, and even some of the paint activity has vanished. This is glaringly significant. Dragic is deadly from a variety of unique spaces on the court when playing with one or none of Bledsoe or Thomas. Add both to the mix, and that uniqueness disappears.

So What?

Data and photo support provided courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball-Reference.com, and data extraordinaire Darryl Blackport.