How the Cleveland Cavaliers Are the NBA’s Most Inconsistent Team

Dec 28, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Dion Waiters (3) and Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0) and Cleveland Cavaliers forward Shawn Marion (31) and Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) sit on the bench during the fourth quarter against the Detroit Pistons at Quicken Loans Arena. The Pistons won 103-80. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve analyzed the NBA season from many new and exciting ways this year at Nylon Calculus. We’ve also analyzed these particular Cleveland Cavaliers from a variety of ways, thanks to the Cavonometry series.

That hasn’t been updated in a little while, so some recent Twitter conversations with Hardwood Paroxysm founder Matt Moore led to a new thought about the Cavs. There are several angles one can take to measure inconsistency in team play. But one that is notable and accessible through Daryl Blackport’s actual possession-count game logs is Net Rating in wins and losses.

On average, both over the full 2013-14 season and half of 2014-15 (as of games played on Wednesday, Jan. 14), the average Net Rating in a win was about +11.8. Obviously, the average Net Rating in a loss was then -11.8. With data on every team, you can then look at some measure of consistency and, even without the total number of wins and losses, analyze the degree to which teams are winning and losing.

The first question to be asked: Which teams have the largest differences in Net Ratings in their wins and losses? And to this measurement, Moore’s assumption was right. The Cavaliers are the most inconsistent team between wins and losses.

Look at how the Cavs have a +13.3 Net Rating in wins. That ranked fifth-highest in the NBA as of Wednesday’s games, only behind expected teams in Golden State (+15.6), LA Clippers (+15.2), Toronto (+13.9) and Dallas (+13.9).

Also look at how the Cavs have a -14.1 Net Rating in losses. That also ranked fourth-lowest in the NBA as of Wednesday’s games, behind of course Philadelphia (-17.6), and then Miami (-15.6) and Washington (-14.7).

That combination leads to a 27.4 Net Rating difference in wins and losses for the Cavs, slightly the most in the NBA. Golden State was right behind at 27.3 because of the masterful-ness of their victories. The largest difference during the 2013-14 season was the New York Knicks at 28.2.

Before diving further into some Cavs stats with and without their highly touted Big Three, I just wanted to share another way of looking at this data. Instead of just looking at the difference between wins and losses, another way could be to analyze the degree to which teams deviate from the mean.

In the example of the Cavs, their +13.3 Net Rating in wins is 1.5 points per 100 possessions away from the league average of about 11.8. Their -14.1 Net Rating in losses is 2.3 points per 100 possessions away from the league average of about 11.8. So in total, the Cavs deviate by 3.8 points in total. Who leads in this category?

In these absolute terms, the Cavs actually don’t turn out to be all that inconsistent. Holy cow, the Philadelphia 76ers are bad – their losses (-17.6) are the most extreme and their wins (+5.6) are the worst. San Antonio continues to be an oddity, which their incredibly close losses (-6.7).

On the flip side, Utah and Atlanta are two teams with very average Net Ratings in wins and losses. They have very different records, of course, as the Jazz are 13-26 and the Hawks are 31-8. But it’s just intriguing to note that the degree of those wins and losses are normal.

By this measurement in 2013-14, the 76ers again took the crown with a 9.1 point absolute difference. The Timberwolves – owners of the largest Net Rating in wins and a fairly low Net Rating in losses – come in second with a 6.1 point difference. Sacramento (1.1) and Detroit (0.8) had the lowest two differences.

One other question asked by Moore yesterday was how this inconsistency data matches up with the presence of the Cavs’ Big Three. How badly have they beaten teams and how badly have they lost when all three of Kevin Love, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving play together?

Now going through Thursday’s win over the Lakers, the Cavs are 18-11 with all three. They’re only 2-9 otherwise. Here’s a quick look at their Net Ratings in wins, losses and overall based on having those three players together.

To note, the average NBA Offensive Rating this season is 107.0, per Blackport’s league-wide data. So as expected, the Cavs have been both a pretty good offensive team (109.4 ORTG) and a pretty bad defensive team (109.8 DRTG) overall.

The raw Net Rating difference in wins and losses isn’t that bad with that Big Three (only 26.1) and without the Big Three (24.3), but obviously when combined together with the extreme wins and the extreme losses, it combines to a high result (now 27.1).

Even though the losses without the Big Three were way worse, it’s still alarming for consistency how badly the Cavs are losing with the Big Three. Yes, the team’s +3.7 Net Rating in those games is fairly encouraging and would rank third in the Eastern Conference behind Atlanta and Toronto. But the data passed the eye test that you never know which Cavaliers team might show up on any given night.

Click here to view a Google Doc containing this 2013-14 and 2014-15 wins/losses inconsistency data.