Quick Firing With Kyle Korver & Co.

Jan 13, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Kyle Korver (26) shoots past Philadelphia 76ers forward Jerami Grant (39) during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

With the increasing attention being paid to the magnificence of Kyle Korver, he of the 53% three point stroke, the next natural question is how does he keep getting so open? Surely he shows up at the top of the scouting report for every Hawks’ opponent by this point. Yet still, Korver seems to get at least one or two looks every game that are so open, the bench starts celebrating before the shot is even released, let alone drops:

First of all, that’s magnificent. We need to develop Bench Mob Analytics to measure the positive effects of such over the top and infectious celebrations.[1. I’m only half-kidding if that much.] Second, Korver is really open there. But despite what it seems, he’s not actually open that frequently. As part of developing XeFG%, it was necessary to examine how often players are facing different relative degrees of defensive pressure from various shooting zones. This allows the understanding that through Saturday’s games, Korver has been “wide open”[2. No defender within 6 feet of him on the shot release, per SportVU.] on 29.6% of his three pointers. That sounds like a whole lot! Until it’s compared to the league average of just under 40%.

By using a similar methodology to XeFG%, players’ “expected” three point percentage can be calculated. This is not intended to be a measure of actual expectation, but rather what a league average shooter would shoot under varying amounts of duress of each particular player. To put in simplest terms, the higher a player’s “X3FG%,” the more open he tends to be on three pointers. For example, Boris Diaw is wide open on an astonishing 89.6% of his threes, which combined with his small number of more contested shots leaves him with a X3FG% of 37.4%. It also means I’m not crazy when I rage at the TV when someone flies by Diaw on a pump fake from three, because if the defender is close enough to buy the fake, he’s close enough Diaw probably wasn’t shooting anyway. But I digress.

Looking at the 117 players with at least 100 threes attempted as of January 17, here is a comparison of their “expected[3. Again, based just on openness rather than any measure of the shooter’s quality.]” versus observed three point shooting:

Korver is in actuality one of the more covered three point shooters in the league. It just doesn’t matter at this point. Interestingly, and probably not coincidentally, the two most “open” three point shooters with sufficient attempts are Korver’s Atlanta teammates Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague, while Draymond Green is fifth. It’s not hard to speculate these open looks are generated in large part by the gravity of Korver or the Splash Brothers respectively.

Still, the question remains, how does Korver get even as open as he does, considering a three pointer from him is worth more, an average, than most players’ layups?

The answer lies in part on the flipside of last week’s look at teams which use the shot clock as an extra defender. That study indicates there is more than a little truth to the commonly stated notion that attacking a defense early, before it gets “set” yields great results. Certainly, many of the NBA’s top marksmen think so. Of players with sufficient attempts, the leaders in percentage of their threes coming “early” in the shot clock (less than 8 seconds elapsed) reads like a who’s who of long range assassins, with Boston’s Laurel and Hardy front court pairing of Olynyk and Sullinger thrown in for laughs:

On the whole, about one quarter of all threes are taken occur early in the shot clock. As a hypothesis for future study, I suggest these players are taking advantage of the defense in semi-scrambled transition or offensive rebound opportunities to get shots where even if the a defender is close by, the contest is not particularly effective because of all the other threats presented to a defensive player in these more chaotic circumstances.Certainly, Korver himself is highly proficient at running to the arc on the break or relocating to an open spot from an offensive rebound. To that end, so far this year, on such early shots, Korver is connecting at a 77.6% eFG%. Talk about doing your work early.

Of course, so far this season Korver has also been scintillating late in the shot clock. His 17 “backbreaker” 3s made, shots taken with under 4 on the shot clock lead the league, on only 31 attempts.