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Forty games into this 2014-2015 season, the Golden State Warriors have been largely unstoppable. While their superior play has been the result of a mix of off-season upgrades (most notably head coach Steve Kerr) and increased productivity from their core (see: Thompson, Klay; Green, Draymond), the top performer has undoubtedly been point guard Stephen Curry. Curry’s brilliance is not exactly something new:
True, a highlight reel is not necessarily the most persuasive evidence of basketball supreme elite-ness; however with the wonderful rise of publicly available statistics (via NBA.com, ESPN, Basketball Reference, and yes — Nylon Calculus), I’m not going to belabor the numbers angle too much. Curry is an absolute terror for opposing defenses. As Zach Harper recently mentioned, Curry is the rare player that has a defense concerned as soon as he crosses the half court line.
So, if his team has the best record in the league, he’s leading multiple statistical categories, he’s arguably the most popular player, and feared by defenses weak and strong…what is left to discuss?
Hunting Grounds. TeamSPACE. Shot patterns.
Of course, right? The identification of clusters — and subsequent holes — in Curry’s shot activity lend themselves to small (microscopic, really) opportunities for a defense to capitalize on.
Coming into this season, this is what Steph Curry’s career Hunting Grounds looked like:
Over time, Curry has abandoned baseline midrange activity, and severely lightened his load from the elbows. His three-point activity has become increasingly precise, as evidenced by annual reductions in his overall court usage percentages (2011-12 is a bit of an injury-plagued anomaly). However, his eFG% seems to decrease as his court space decreases. Regardless of a few percentage points, as Curry’s career has progressed, he has seemingly maintained a consistent presence across the entire three-point arc.
As for this season:
No real surprises thus far. At this aggregate level, Curry is seemingly on par with his current career trajectory (arguably more prolific than Nash at this rate):
- At the rim
- The elbows, likely from pick and roll action
- Most of the three-point line, with small gaps at the break on both sides
This has become the successful Point Guard shooting profile over time. Given Curry’s proficiency, what’s a defender to do?
Entering this season Steph Curry’s shot activity changes, albeit subtly, quarter to quarter. In the 1st quarter he appears to favor going left, as there are noticeable gaps on right side wing and elbow area. The 2nd quarter is Vintage Curry, hitting from all his favorite spots. In the 3rd quarter he apparently transforms into Steph Nowitzki, active from virtually everywhere on the court. The 4th quarter is a bit calmer, but still above normal — he’s got activity from just about everywhere above the foul line extended.
This season, the results have been a bit different:
1st quarters have been characterized by activity on the other side — his right side. 2nd quarters are still somewhat Vintage Curry, although the left corner and elbow disappear. The 3rd quarter is certainly less Nowitzki-esqe, with much more precision overall and missing activity in the right corner and elbow. 4th quarters are a change too; Curry’s active on both 3pt wings and both corners, and then in the paint. Nothing at the top of the arc, nor the elbows. So, if you’re scoring at home:
Steph Curry, quarter by quarter, this season:
- 1st Quarter: goes right, little-to-no left
- 2nd Quarter: goes right, little-to-no left
- 3rd Quarter: goes left, little-to-no right
- 4th Quarter: goes to both sides, little-to-no middle
As a defender, knowing those tendencies is potentially helpful. Going one step further, a comparison of Hunting Grounds based on made vs. missed shots illuminates small holes to exploit. Over Steph’s career:
It’s a thing of beauty, really. Beauty aside, opportunities for a defense to take advantage of in the past have been in small gaps in between the top of the arc and wing three-pointers. And…that’s about it. Most other blue areas have accompanying red areas to negate any kind of true “cold spot” shooting activity. How that has translated this season:
Mostly similar. Here’s the thing about ‘hot spots,’ and Curry in particular: these aren’t just half-court sets he’s getting shots on.
Curry with the fast break, soul-crushing pull-up (2nd video; recommend dropping the speed down to 0.5):
And then Curry on the semi-transition, from another one of his known ‘hot spots’ (1st video):
So, gaps of red filled in by blue still actually do exist in the nebulous area between the loosely defined ‘top’ and ‘wings’ of the 3pt line. Two other interesting spots also emerge. First, the right corner is a cold spot for Curry. At 40 games in, it’s interesting. At 80 games in, it’s a potential opportunity to exploit defensively. For now, I dare someone to tell an opposing guard to leave Steph Curry open in the corner with a straight-face, because here is what ‘cold’ can look like (2nd clip):
That second ‘new cold spot’ is just beneath the free throw line. This would imply that ideally a defense runs Curry off the three-point line (good luck), but the second line defense steps up and doesn’t allow him to get to the rim. Sounds great… theoretically.
So What?
After all the dust settles, we learn three things about Curry’s shooting tendencies. First, he’s absolutely lethal from deep. This is not breaking news. Second, there is some patterned shot activity, at the quarterly level. Curry appears to be favoring certain sides of the court during certain quarters (which is potentially lineup dependent, too). Third, Curry does in fact have spots on the floor where he is not as deadly as others. Attempting to craft a defense that forces Curry a) out of his patterned comfort zones, and b) towards his ‘cold spots’ makes sense. Is this still a gamble? Absolutely, but with a player as talented as Curry there are degrees of severity (#levels, even), not a simple good/bad dichotomy. Knowing where (and when) to shift and favor a spot on the floor at a minimum changes the environment, and makes it less conducive for Curry to be effective. In the absence of a more obvious way to ‘successfully’ defend Curry, such an approach may produce the greatest less-wrong outcome possible.
Data and photo support provided courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball-Reference.com, and data extraordinaire Darryl Blackport.