Super Bowl strategy: Patriots offense against Seahawks defense
By Robby Sabo
One of the more anticipated questions for Super Bowl XLIX is what Richard Sherman’s role will be against Tom Brady and the Patriots offense.
Behind all of the Deflate-Gate talk and Bill Belichick’s diabolical ways, there is an NFL game coming up this Sunday.
It’s a big game too.
As we near middle of Super Bowl week, the strategy and game-planning talk can now finally be ratcheted up. The strategy talk for this game is especially fascinating considering the figures involved.
Both the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are champions; Both Belichick and Pete Carrol are champions; and both Tom Brady and Russell Wilson are champions.
Champions in this league know how important strategy becomes when talent is so closely bunched together.
When considering the matchup between the Seahawks offense and the Patriots defense, the immediate thing that comes to mind is Belichick. For all of his past and present controversies regarding playing fast and loose, there’s no denying the man is one of the greatest innovators in history.
Teams around the league now attempt to copy his style of game-planning as he’s built a “chameleon-like” team and strategize with such profound contrast from week to week. For example, one week his team can be a power running team while another week he’ll throw the running game right out of the gameplan if the opponent’s defense presents that situation.
Even more than his innovations in that area, Belichick is probably the greatest in-game adjuster on defense this league has ever seen. One of his favorite things to do is take away that one thing away from an offense and dare them to beat them the other way.
Easy concept to think about, but extremely difficult to execute.
Take a look at Super Bowl XXV in which his New York Giants defense simply allowed Buffalo Bills running-back Thurman Thomas to run all day, knowing it was their best chance to win. They played a Big Nickel all game and it worked in stopping Jim Kelly’s K-Gun offense.
This time around I expect Belichick to put all his efforts in shutting down the Marshawn Lynch-Russell Wilson run game, forcing Wilson to beat them as a one-dimensional team through the air. Seattle lead the league in rushing and is the lifeblood of their offense.
The more interesting matchup in Super Bowl XLIX though will be the Pats offense against the Seahawks defense.
First of all, while most offenses always try to remain two-dimensional, the Pats sometimes don’t even attempt to run the ball if the opportunity lies. In this game though, they’ll have to try and succeed to at least some small degree.
I love when rushing stats like attempts are thrown out as the key to the game. It’s so silly. Of course the winning team will have an uptick in rushing attempts, it’s simple football.
It will not be about rushing attempts with the Pats, it’ll be about rushing effectiveness.
For how great and intimidating the Seahawks defense is, most of it comes from the secondary. Their interior is actually not that stout.
Seattle ranked third during the regular season against the run, allowing 81.5 yards a game which amounted to a 3.4 clip per rush. They of course finished first in the league against the pass (186 yards per game).
Those are phenomenal numbers.
However, it’s safeties Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and middle linebacker Bobby Wagner that keep this defense so stout against the run. It is not the work of their interior defensive lineman.
Because cornerbacks Richard Sherman (1st Team All Pro) and Byron Maxwell are so good, Seattle regularly plays eight and even nine in or near the box on a consistent basis.
This is formula for success against the run and what Brady and the Pats offense must overcome if they want to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy for the fourth time.
What hurts the Pats passing game in this matchup is the fact that they are a dink and dunk team that loves over the middle stuff. They are a precise passing team that runs bubble screens, uses motions effectively, and spaces out weapons perfectly against a defense. Brady is absolutely deadly in the short passing game under the 10 yard mark.
The Seattle defense is a perfect match against this offense, as pick plays and rubs do not work like a charm against these boys from the West Coast.
They love zone and Cover 3, allowing Thomas to play center field and Chancellor to rob underneath while helping in the run game. Sometimes both safeties anticipate the run so well that they’re essentially playing nine in the box.
The Patriots are a hit and miss rushing team. While they finished the year 18th in total rushing with 107.9 per game, we’ll have no idea if they’ll even try to get a consistent ground game going.
The one thing I do know is this: The Green Bay Packers did one hell of a job running against Seattle in the NFC Title Game. Eddie Lacy and James Starks combined for 117 yards on 26 carries. The Pats obviously destroyed the Indianapolis Colts on the ground, but just one week before couldn’t run a lick against the Baltimore Ravens (14 yards on 13 carries).
For New England to have real success against this defense, Brady will have to hit the Seahawks with at least two big plays in the first half. He’ll have to beat Sherman and/or Maxwell over the top to loosen that more than likely hyped up Hawks defense.
This will then allow the Patriots a chance to run successfully. I don’t think they’ll be able to run until they loosen that very aggressive defense up first.
Another question arises from this scenario though. Because Brady isn’t a deep ball thrower anymore, and loves the underneath timing stuff, will Dan Quinn and Seattle tinker with the idea of moving Sherman inside?
Throughout their run, Richard Sherman never changes sides. He is the left cornerback. It makes complete sense based on their simplistic, aggressive scheme.
However, especially because the Patriots wide receivers are more over-the-middle guys, and don’t possess the ability beat you over the top (LaFell is only one to a slight degree), it’s conceivable to see Sherman lined up in a nickel position or even over tight-end Rob Gronkowski.
The Seahawks will have to make this decision once they figure out if Brady will challenge a couple times over the top, or if he’ll play in essence nine on nine.
The Pats could line up Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola on the outside and not throw to them near the sidelines once. This would completely eliminate Sherman and Maxwell from the action and the game essentially becomes a nine on nine game.
As much as that fits their offense, I don’t think the Pats will have success with that strategy, as running will be a hardship.
Julian Edelman and Gronkowski are the deadliest weapons Brady has. Shane Vereen coming out of the backfield is also dangerous. If Seattle wants Sherman to have a significant piece of the action, then they’ll have to move him inside when they go Nickel.
I don’t think Seattle will go this way though. They’re a defense that does very little in the way of fancy schemes. They could be perhaps the most bland defense in the league. It is there attitude, aggression and skill that makes them so great.
The Seahawks will continue to play their one safety over the top, stay aggressive and dare Brady to beat Sherman and Maxwell over the top while Thomas and Chancellor are worrying about Gronkowski and Edelman in the middle of the field.
The injuries to Thomas and Sherman are a huge deal as well. Because of Deflate-Gate, both of these semi-serious issues have gone under the radar.
As good as the Seahawks defense is, they are also only as good as their weakest link. The are a true unit that doesn’t play as well when one of their key members is out. The Packers ran very well when Thomas missed action in that miracle game.
Thomas is so uniquely smart and talented that he makes everything around him work. The man covers so much ground that it essentially creates their scheme.
Also, remember earlier in the season when this unit wasn’t playing as well and many questioned them? Middle-linebacker Bobby Wagner was missing in action. He missed five games and during that span Seattle did not look the same.
Sherman’s elbow injury might be a big roadblock if Quinn and Carroll consider moving him inside on Gronk or Edelman.
The Pats offense against the Seahawks defense should be interesting. We’ll know very quickly into the game whether the Seahawks will have to tone down their mouth or Brady is faced with a long night ahead of him.