Dec 15, 2014; Durham, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils fans taunt Elon Phoenix guard Dmitri Thompson (2) as he throws in the ball from the sidelines in their game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports
Two weeks ago I made percentage predictions for each and every Division 1 team making the 2015 NCAA tournament. The projections incorporate both my estimate of the chances of each team winning their conference and receiving their automatic bid, as well as my estimate for each team receiving an at large bid. If you’re interested in the methodology behind the numbers I would encourage you to check the original post here. Since the original post I have updated the projections, and in addition to posting these updates, I thought I’d take a look at the teams that saw the biggest increases or decreases in their tournament chances over the past two weeks.
Big Two-Week Winners
Texas A&M (35.71% increase to 48.88%)
An undefeated run over the last two weeks did little to help the Aggies conference championship bid hopes in the loaded SEC, but these 4 wins gave the now 15-5 Aggies significant help to their at-large bid chances. Texas A&M is now the 46th best D1 team according to Kenpom.com, just around the likely at-large bid cut-off area.
William & Mary (25.57% increase to 48.83%)
Over the past two weeks, conference rival Northeastern lost 3 of the past 5 games, which helped to increase William & Mary’s conference bid chances by 17.85%. In addition, William & Mary won all but 1 game, including a blowout of CAA rival Hofstra.
Yale (18.58% increase to 47.48%)
With a 4-0 start in the conference schedule, and former Ivy League favorite Harvard dropping a game to 8-10 Dartmouth, Yale’s once-modest chances of making the tournament have increased significantly, especially given the Ivy league’s best-record-no-tournament structure. The two remaining Yale-Harvard games will likely be the Ivy League’s deciding factor.
Big Two-Week Losers
NC State (42.22% decrease to 25.81%)
Losses to Miami, #8 Notre Dame, Clemson, and a mere one point win against Georgia Tech turned NC State into a team on the outside looking in. The remaining schedule is brutal for NC State, three of their remaining eight games include #2 Virginia, #10 Louisville, and #13 North Carolina. A tough conference like the ACC makes NC State pretty dependent on their current 24.70% at-large bid chance as well.
Iowa (37.18% decrease to 33.97%)
Things may not be as bad as this number suggests for Iowa, but a 1-3 two week stretch and a 4-4 conference record are never desired. Iowa was forced to play #5 Wisconsin not once but twice in the past two weeks, and Wisconsin took care of business both times. Iowa still has to play rising #16 Maryland and #22 Indiana, and also plays in a particularly strong conference (Big Ten).
Florida (33.65% decrease to 58.31%)
12-9 Florida went 2-2 over the last two weeks, but the rising strength of conference rivals like Texas A&M and others have hurt their tournament chances significantly. Florida still has to play Kentucky twice, and has yet to win a game against a ranked opponent. Dropping games to LSU and Mississippi and strength of conference are the biggest factors in Florida’s fall from sure thing to more likely than not.