It’s possible that “Big Game James” could be the big hot stove bust of the offseason.
When James Shields rejected the Kansas City Royals qualifying offer going into the offseason, he became another free-agent pitcher who required draft pick compensation.
Now with spring training drawing closer and closer, Shields went from one of the top free-agent pitchers on the market, to the last free-agent pitcher with draft pick compensation. In short, Shields wouldn’t be a bust as in regards of talent (he’s recorded a winning record in every season since 2007, his first full year with the Rays) but as in getting paid what he originally hoped to get, compared to what he’s probably about to sign for.
Throughout the winter, more teams have denied having legitimate interest in Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA, 180 K in 2014) than one would’ve thought despite the reports that Shields was supposed to sign by the end of this week. The reports also mentioned that Shields has multiple offers in hand and while it’s unknown which teams have offered, the story begins to shift from who will he sign with, to why he hasn’t signed yet.
Shields is coming off of a 2014 season where he posted his third-best ERA+ of his career (124) along with posting his third-best win total (14).
However that’s probably where all of the stats-praise stops for “Not-so-Big Game James.” Despite having great off-the-mound intangibles, being a great leader,
Instead of focusing on what he did with the Royals last year, you have to look at the entire body of work.
Since his 2011 career-year season where he posted career-bests in wins (16), ERA (2.82), complete games (11), complete game shutouts (4), strikeouts (225) and ERA+ (134), Shields has slowly came crashing back to earth. His win total declined for the next two years before his 14-win season last year, his ERA went back above 3.00, has allowed more hits in each of the last three years and struck out less batters in each of the last three years as well. According to fangraphs.com, Shields’ fastball averaged a career-high 92.4 mph last season. and in the past eight seasons, Shields leads the Majors with 1,785 2/3 innings. Only Tigers ace Justin Verlander has started more games and thrown more pitches in that time.
Keep in mind the dangerous game that Shields is playing. Last year, three of the game’s stars all turned down their qualifying offers of one-year at $14.1 million and all of which regretted it.
Nelson Cruz signed with the Orioles for one year and $8 million while both Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales took their free agency war into the regular season, signing pro-rated deals and then getting traded. Drew was traded to the Yankees and signed a one-year deal for $5 million this season, and Morales to Seattle, whose qualifying offer he rejected this offseason before signing a two-year, $17 million deal with Kansas City.
Which brings us back to Shields. While he was the third-best pitcher entering free agency behind Max Scherzer and Jon Lester, you also have to remember that Shields is already 33 and is already coming into the negative side of mileage, approaching the 2,000 innings pitched mark this year.
While most thought that Shields would command a four-year, $80 million deal, one American League source said earlier in the week that Shields’ asking price went down to $60 million over three years.
The third-highest deal a sign by a starting pitcher this offseason was 32-year-old Ervin Santana’s four-year, $55 million deal with the Twins – a deal that’s one year more and $5 million less than what Shields is reportedly bargaining for. No free-agent pitcher has ever signed a contract over $50 million after Feb. 1 of that given year.
The Yankees don’t seem to have interest and the Marlins and Cardinals have denied interest while rumors have had Shields tied with San Diego, the Chicago Cubs, the Toronto Blue Jays and even the Milwaukee Brewers.
There’s nothing wrong with any athlete, or anyone for that matter trying to go out there and maximizing their value. In this case, Shields did that coming off a World Series run and Shields’ game to get more than he’s really worth backfired.
It’s a little sad if you think about it. I don’t think anyone would’ve thought we’d see “Big Game James” in the discount aisle.
Next: Which pitchers are the best of the best?
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