Fantasy Basketball: FanDuel Lineups For February 11

Feb 9, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul (3) yells in the third quarter against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

There are 12 games going on in the NBA tonight, which makes the all night tournaments full of enticing options. Which ones should you spring for? I will include my lineups, plus Vince Groth’s computer lineups as lineup “C”, so you can see how they all stack up. Stay tuned for the turbo and late night tournament lineups as well!

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Here are my FanDuel lineups for February 11:

Point Guards:

Bargains:

J.J. Barea, Mavericks ($4,800): Barea continues to put up solid numbers with Rajon Rondo out. He has at least one more game of production in him for you daily leaguers. He has averaged 24.4 fantasy points in the five starts in place of Rondo. That is 5x value at a very reasonable price. His matchup against Utah is a good one, so you could see him even a little over that threshold.

Elfrid Payton, Magic ($5,800): Payton has done well against opponents that are average or worse on the perimeter. He gets another one of those tonight in the Knicks. Payton could have a game around 6x value. Jose Calderon, Shane Larkin, and Langston Galloway are not really known for their defense.

Worth The Cost:

Chris Paul, Clippers ($10,000): Paul has carried some of the load since Blake Griffin went down. He has averaged 48.7 fantasy points per game with Griffin out. Tonight he gets a Rockets team that has not been good at covering the point at all. He should crack 50 in this one, making him a 5x value that is nearly impossible to get at that high of a price.

Damian Lillard, Trailblazers ($8,900): Lillard has 91.4 fantasy points over his last two games against Dallas (without Rondo) and Houston. Tonight he gets another team that is not good at covering anyone in the Lakers. Look for Lillard to put up near what he has been averaging lately. The only thing that worries me is that this could turn into a blowout, so Lillard’s minutes might be limited in this game. I could still see him over 40 fantasy points in 30 minutes though.

Risky Plays:

Russell Westbrook, Thunder ($10,900): It is hard to put a guy like Westbrook on here, but I call it like I see it. He played Memphis on January 31st and had just 25.7 fantasy points in that game. This is only two weeks later, and the lineups are the same. Westbrook may fare a little better, but he won’t be anywhere near 45 fantasy points, which is where you need him to be to get your money’s worth.

Kyle Lowry, Raptors ($7,900): Washington has not defended the point particularly well lately, and tonight they may be without John Wall. Lowry had 33.1 fantasy points against Washington back on January 31st with Wall in there. So why am I apprehensive? He has only been over 30 fantasy points once since then, and he was even held to 11.1 fantasy points against the Bucks in 29 minutes. With DeMar DeRozan back in the picture, Lowry’s value has taken a hit. He needs 32 fantasy points for 4x value, which is a modest return. He has only topped that three times since the return of DeRozan. That makes him a risk.

My Lineups:

A: Paul and Barea ($14,800)

B: Barea and Ricky Rubio ($11,100): The T-Wolves have to play Rubio more with Mo Williams gone.

C: Lowry and Marcus Smart ($12,700)

Next: Should You Spend For Harden?

Feb 10, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) points to the sky against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center. The Rockets won 127-118. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Shooting Guards:

Bargains:

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks ($6,800): Enjoy him while the price is still this low. Giannis has eight straight games of 27 or more fantasy points, and is averaging 35.6 fantasy points over that span AVERAGING! That is an average of of almost 5.5x value! Tonight he takes on a Sacramento team that has struggled at times defending the perimeter. Just look at what Tony Snell did to them last night! Giannis could be in for another big game. 5x value could be on the low end!

Elijah Millsap, Jazz ($3,800): Millsap’s first two NBA starts have gone well. He has scored 47.3 fantasy points in those two games. He is at least a 7x value at this price. He is the best low priced option on the board tonight in any format!

Worth The Cost:

James Harden, Rockets ($11,200): Harden was at it again last night, nearly pulling off a triple-double against the Suns en route to another monster game. He scored a whopping 70.9 fantasy points last night in what was his best fantasy game of the year. Now, he may not hit that mark against the Clippers, but he could come close. They have not defending the off guard well lately, and that is only partially to do with J.J. Redick missing some games. They weren’t that great to begin with. Expect another 50+ point fantasy game from Harden.

Tyreke Evans, Pelicans ($8,400): You can’t deny how well Evans has played since taking over at PG for Jrue Holiday. There is a slight chance that Holiday plays tonight, but I would think that the Pelicans would want to let him have the few days of rest. In the event that they do play him, I would still expect Evans to log plenty of minutes at the point. Not that it matters. Evans is productive wherever he plays. He has averaged 37.4 fantasy points per games over his last ten games. That is a solid 4.5x value.

Risky Plays:

DeMar DeRozan, Raptors ($6,900): DeRozan is primarily a scorer, which always makes him a bit of a risk. In his last game against Washington, he had ten rebounds and seven assists, which made him an asset in FanDuel. He has only scored more than 20 points in a game once in his last five games. If you think that he can contribute enough in other categories to fill the scoring void, then go ahead and play him. Just keep in mind that he is unlikely to duplicate those numbers again.

Wayne Ellington, Lakers ($5,000): Ellington still has games that are under 20 fantasy points, especially since Nick Young is healthy. He is maybe more reliant on scoring that DeRozan is, which makes him a constant risk. The reason he might be worth a shot tonight is because he plays the Trailblazers, who have not defended the off guard well this year.

My Lineups:

A: Harden and Antetokounmpo ($18,000)

B: Harden and Evans ($19,600)

C: Evans and Millsap ($12,200)

Next: Who Is The Best Option At SF?

Feb 8, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) celebrates on the court in the second quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Small Forwards:

Bargains:

DeMarre Carroll, Hawks ($5,200): Carroll had a strong game against the Timberwolves on Monday, putting up 36.8 fantasy points in 34 minutes. That was one of his best games of the year, and his highest fantasy output in 2015. Can he duplicate the feat against the Celtics tonight? Probably not, but they aren’t exactly stalwarts on defense either. I could see Carroll getting around 30 fantasy points again, which puts him very close to 6x value.

Al-Farouq Aminu, Mavericks ($4,600): Aminu has averaged 24.6 fantasy points per game since his minutes increased to over 20 per game eight games ago. What makes him even more enticing tonight is the fact that Monta Ellis and Tyson Chandler are both expected to miss the game. That could mean upwards of 30 minutes for Aminu, which should put him near 30 fantasy points. That would be about 7.5x value. You don’t need me to tell you that you aren’t going to get any better than that.

Worth The Cost:

LeBron James, Cavaliers ($10,800): I can sum this up in one sentence: he is playing the Heat. It could feel very much like a playoff game with him playing his former team. His numbers are slightly down since his return on January 30 (his average in those six games is 41.1 fantasy points, three points below his season average), but there is a big motivational factor is this game. Look for the King to try and re-establish his dominance to the Miami faithful in this one.

Gordon Hayward, Jazz ($8,500): If you don’t want to pay for Durant or James and don’t trust Carmelo Anthony in what could be his last game of the year, then Hayward is your man. He has been over 30 fantasy points in nine of his last 11 games. Dallas is not a great matchup for him, but it’s not a bad one either. Especially if they are left shuffling their lineups with Ellis and Chandler out. Hayward should be in the 30’s again tonight.

Risky Plays:

Kevin Durant, Thunder ($10,600): Durant has averaged 43.6 fantasy points in his three games since his return from a toe injury. So what makes him a risk? He is playing Memphis, a team that held him to just 27.4 fantasy points in 37 minutes back on January 31st. Yes, his toe was probably bothering him some in that game, but Memphis has a proven track record of playing outstanding defense all over the court. I expect Durant under 40 in this one, which really isn’t worth what you have to pay for him.

Shabazz Muhammad, Timberwolves ($6,200): Muhammad racked up 24.6 fantasy points in his return on Monday against the Hawks. His shot was falling, and he looked like he hadn’t missed a beat. So why is he is risk instead of a bargain? There is no guarantee how much playing time he will get with Kevin Martin and Andrew Wiggins blocking him in the starting lineup. He likely wouldn’t have seen the minutes he did on Monday if he wasn’t shooting so well. I would stay away from this until the roles are more clearly defined.

My Lineups:

A: Aminu and Trevor Ariza (10,100): Ariza has a good matchup against Matt Barnes, and I couldn’t afford higher priced talent.

B: Aminu and Tayshaun Prince ($8,700): Prince got over 20 fantasy points in his return, a 5x value.

C: Trevor Ariza and Tobias Harris* ($11,200) Harris has already been ruled out. The replacement is Chandler Parsons.

Next: The Top PF's Are All Risky

Feb 10, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph (50) dribbles the ball past Brooklyn Nets center Mason Plumlee (1) at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Power Forwards:

Bargains:

Mitch McGary, Thunder ($4,300): He is playing so well without Steven Adams out that Adams might not be starting even when he does return. Of course, it has only been two games, but McGary has scored exactly 31 points in each of them. He likely won’t do that against Memphis tonight, but we also have no reason to believe that he won’t hold his own. He only needs 21.5 fantasy points for 5x value. That should be attainable, even against the Grizzlies.

Josh Smith, Rockets ($6,100): Smith continues to excel with Dwight Howard out. He has averaged 30.1 fantasy points per game in Howard’s absence, which makes him a virtual lock for 5x value every time he takes the court. He should have another good night against the Clippers, who are without Blake Griffin. He should have no problem reaching that average.

Worth The Cost:

LaMarcus Aldridge, Trailblazers ($9,600): The Lakers are thin up front with the loss of Jordan Hill, and they weren’t very strong there anyway. The only question is whether LMA can get 38 points to give him 4x value in the limited minutes that he is likely to play. This game reeks of a blowout.

Zach Randolph, Grizzlies ($8,600): Randolph shredded the Thunder back on January 31st for 46.1 fantasy points, his highest total in 2015. Now the loss of Steven Adams will spread them a little thinner. The potential is there for Randolph to blow up on them again. It is unrealistic for us to expect him to do that again, but it is possible for him to get 4x value (38.7 points).

Risky Plays:

Jared Sullinger, Celtics ($6,700): Sullinger has been on a tear since returning to the starting lineup. He is averaging 37.7 fantasy points per game in those four games. So why am I nervous? He has to take on Paul Millsap and the Hawks, who patrol the middle quite well. He only needs 26.8 fantasy points for 4x value. With the way he is playing, that shouldn’t be a problem, but you never know which way the rotations are going to go.

Tim Duncan, Spurs ($8,100): Father Tim(e) has played more than 30 minutes in three of his last four games. Not coincidentally, he was over 28 fantasy points in each of those three games. Tonight he has a tough matchup against the Pistons, who are terrors in the paint. You could see Duncan resting more from jostling with Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond all game. He needs 32.4 fantasy points for 4x value. That could be a tall order against Detroit.

My Lineups:

A: Smith and Ed Davis ($11,600): Davis has produced as the starting C with Jordan Hill out.

B: Randolph and McGary ($12,900)

C: Smith and Dirk Nowitzki ($12,400)

Next: Gamble on Whiteside or Spend on Cousins?

Jan 31, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks center Al Horford (15) reacts after almost making a basket as he was fouled in the fourth quarter of their game against the Philadelphia 76ers at Philips Arena. The Hawks won 91-85. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Center:

Bargains:

Al Horford, Hawks ($8,300): His pitiful showing against the Grizzlies pushed his price back down a little, which is good for us. He had a huge game against the Timberwolves on Friday, racking up 45.1 fantasy points. There is a great chance that he can do that against anyone Boston throws at him tonight, making him a strong candidate for 5x value.

Timofey Mozgov, Cavaliers ($5,500): Don’t look now, but Mozgov has eight straight 20+ fantasy point games despite his minutes fluctuating between 17 and 36. It has more to do with him not staying out of foul trouble than anything else, but he is producing when on the court. The Heat are likely not going to push Hassan Whiteside very hard, so I have a feeling that Mozgov will get plenty of time against Chris Andersen as well. That bodes well for his fantasy outlook.

Worth The Cost:

DeMarcus Cousins, Kings ($10,800): The Bucks are weak in the middle regardless of if they are healthy or not. Cousins needs 48.6 fantasy points for 4.5x value, a total that he has only hit four times in his last ten games. That said, he has a great chance of getting that – or more – tonight.

DeAndre Jordan, Clippers ($8,600): Jordan was a monster against the Mavericks on Monday, scoring 22 points and grabbing a whopping 27 rebounds. He is taking over all of Blake Griffin’s rebounding load and some of the scoring. He has another nice matchup against Houston, who has a big Dwight Howard-shaped hole in the middle of the paint. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him haul down more than 20 boards again!

Risky Plays:

Marc Gasol, Grizzlies ($8,300): Gasol put up 42.9 fantasy points on the Thunder on January 31st, which is his highest total since January 21st against the Raptors. There is a chance that he can do it again, that is unless you think Mitch McGary is a better defender than Steven Adams. That point is debateable, but at any rate, Gasol remains a risk since he has only topped 35 fantasy points three times in his last ten games. Though if you were going to take a shot with him, tonight is more favorable than most.

Hassan Whiteside, Heat ($7,700): Whiteside has a great matchup against Cleveland, but there is some speculation that the Heat won’t push him hard. Especially if this game is lopsided. That said, he still put up 20.8 fantasy points in just 19 minutes against the Knicks. He needs 34.7 fantasy points to achieve 4.5x value. That may be a bit of a stretch for him tonight. Of course, it all depends on how much he plays.

My Lineups:

A: Mozgov ($5,500)

B: Whiteside ($7,700)

C: Cousins ($10,800)

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