The 2015 All-Star Game’s Record-Breaking Pace, Three-Point Rate and More Statistics
By Matt Femrite
February 15, 2015; New York, NY, USA; Western Conference guard Russell Westbrook of the Oklahoma City Thunder (0) celebrates with Western Conference guard Chris Paul of the Los Angeles Clippers (3) during the second half of the 2015 NBA All-Star Game at Madison Square Garden. The West defeated the East 163-158. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
On Friday I went over some statistics from Rising Stars Challenges, one being possessions per 48 minutes or otherwise known as pace. It was probably no surprise to see that those games played much faster than a typical regular season one, and sure enough Friday night was another track meet with an average of 129.6 possessions per 48 minutes.
But even after this year’s Rising Stars Challenge, the pace of last night’s East-West matchup seemed different, hectic, if not historic. In between the bad passes[1. There were 18 turnovers in the second quarter alone…] and really, really good ones[2. …but according to SportVU, the East recorded 16 secondary assists. 16! Though a few hours before writing this, it was listed as 21.] were consistently quick triggers from both teams. It was exciting to watch so many possessions unfold so quickly especially early on, and sure enough the pace of the game both during the first half and after a full 48 minutes was record-breaking, concluding at 133.5. That mark broke the previous All-Star Game record from 1986, estimated at 127.5. In this post I’ll take a quick look at pace, some three-point shooting, and other statistical records that last night’s East-West matchup broke.
To start, below is a chart to see how the pace of last night’s game matches up with other All-Star Games back to 1978, which was as far back as the essential statistics to calculate pace from Basketball-Reference’s box scores went. From 2004 to 2015, I used exact possessions from nba.com’s play-by-play data, and for the heck of it I threw Basketball-Reference’s league-average pace and previous estimations from every Rising Stars Challenge into the chart, save for Friday’s which were exact numbers.
The pace of the 2003 Rising Stars Challenge was estimated at 133.9 after adjusting from the game’s 20-minute halves to 48 minutes, which could be a possession or two higher or lower than its exact number. Who knows, but I suppose it gives the 2015 All-Star Game, with exact totals and all, a case as the fastest exhibition game on all-star weekend.
The fourth quarter provided a scare, though, which isn’t surprising when the game typically slows down in the fourth quarter. Below is a look at quarter-by-quarter possession totals and just how much last night stuck out compared to the 11 other All-Star Games with play-by-play data[3. Of course, this isn’t the only way to measure pace. One of the best ways is measuring when shots, turnovers, etc. happen at what point in the shot clock, like what’s available in SportVU’s numbers and at sites like 82games. While this is possible with play-by-play data, I personally didn’t feel comfortable about doing it across 12 All-Star Games. The time between a made shot and an inbound pass, for example, can screw with tracking shot clock usage, especially in an all-star setting.].
Compared to 2004-2014, the possession total through 36 minutes was so large that, despite an expected dropoff in the fourth, the chances of 2015 not surpassing 2011 were slim to none. After three quarters the East and West had played a whopping 19 more possessions. To fall short of the 250 total in 2011, both the East and West would have to combine for only 42 possessions. As you can see, that possible total would’ve been ten less than the slowest quarter in 2012 that logged just 52 possessions.
Some of last night’s fast pace may have been helped by dunks in transition starting from highlight-turned-blooper turnovers, but it also could’ve have been helped by threes, threes, and more threes. 133 total, which is incredible to think about regardless of the available possessions. Over 50 percent of the East’s shots were from beyond the arc, easily a new record at 52.3 percent while the West recorded what’s now the second-highest rate at 48.9 percent.
Of course, this was helped a bit by the makeup of the rosters. Take the dip in 2010 specifically, back when the East had Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, and several forwards who didn’t stretch the floor the way their representatives this year like Paul Millsap, Chris Bosh, and Carmelo Anthony could. Only Al Horford and Pau Gasol didn’t attempt a three for the East last night. As for the West, the 2010 roster had quite a few players with range but for whatever reason only shot 21 of their 115 shots from beyond the arc. This year, only Tim Duncan and DeMarcus Cousins didn’t take a shot from that area of the floor.
So many threes. In fact, even though both of last night’s teams put up mediocre dunk and layup rates[4. Measuring back to 2004, the 2015 West rank 21st and 17th out of 24 teams in dunk and layup rates at 10.5 and 21.8 percent, respectively. The East had rates of 16.2 and 20 percent, good for 12th and 21st in dunk and layup rates.], somebody like Darryl Morey would’ve been pleased with the shot selection. If we characterized the East and West’s shots as Moreyball (dunks, layups, threes, and free throws) versus non-Moreyball (mid-range essentially), both teams broke new ground when measuring back to 2004, when play-by-play can describe just what kinds of two-point shots were taken. Nearly 90 percent of shots from this year’s East came from layups, dunks, or three-point attempts and 95 percent of their points came from those spots plus the free throw line, and that’s without benefiting from late-game fouling. Meanwhile, the West took the cake when not accounting for free throws even though they only scored eight of their points there.
How efficient, but not apparently not efficient enough. The offensive ratings for the East and West didn’t match up with the best marks going back to 1978 which belong to the 1992 West and last year’s East at 133.1 and 132.5 points per 100 possessions, respectively. This year, the West averaged 121.6 points/100 and the East 118.8. Not bad marks in an All-Star Game, really. Below is how they stack up against estimated totals from 1978 to 2003 and exact ones from 2004 to now. To see how it compares with the Rising Stars [5. I also have a Google Doc of Rising Stars stats here.], which had a huge dip in their scoring efficiency this year, click here.
Turnovers were one reason why neither team last night set a new high in efficient scoring, but not because both teams coughed the ball up a ton. The East and West averaged 13.5 and 15.7 turnovers per 100 possessions, respectively, below-average marks for these kind of games. The 2014 East outdid them, though, averaging just 11.4, fourth-best from over 35 years. They didn’t show up in the Moreyball tables but they shot 20-for-30 from mid-range, which helped just a bit.
As for the 1992 West who were led by the comeback of Magic Johnson, one reason was shooting 11-for-20 from three. We can’t split their efficiency into quarters, but we can for the 2014 East, this year’s teams, and every other since 2004 to get a quick look at which quarters they were on fire and when they dipped. I also included averages from both teams.
So it looks like most teams got off to slow starts and, until recently, struggled in fourth quarter too. Makes sense when playing with new teammates, especially in half-court situations. Last year was kind of an exception to both quarters, and between that game and this year’s, the third quarter is also noteworthy. Last year’s East averaged 156.7 points/100 possessions and had an effective field goal percentage of 81 over a lovely 12-minute, 29-shot sample. This year’s West didn’t hold up as strong over the same stretch.
There were probably some other unusual all-star statistics that have a new leader after last night. The 16 secondary assists by the East, according to SportVU, looks like another mark that will stand for some time. Depending on the rosters next year, though, who knows? With hindsight, some new records could’ve been foreseeable with the uptick in recent years in three-point rate and the types of players on this year’s rosters. However, if players like Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis, and Dwyane Wade been healthy enough to play, maybe this post is a bit different.
Until next year. If you need time to kill, I have more all-star statistics on a Google Doc.
Stats from 1978 to 2003, save for Rising Stars and league-average number, are according to Basketball-Reference. 2004 to 2015 statistics are from NBA.com. Estimated pace, offensive rating, etc. were calculated with Sactown Royalty’s statistic calculator.