Tonight, the Trail Blazers take on the Clippers. It’s a great match-up; if the playoffs started today they’d play in the first round. The game features two of the best point gawds in the game, and not just because of their ties to alter ego insurance agents:
Jokes aside, Dame and CP3 are two of the best in the league right now. Damian Lillard was just named Western Conference Player of the Week, and Chris Paul is quietly doing Chris Paul things in the absence of Blake Griffin and the rise of DeAndre Jordan. All the commercials, accolades, and stats are great, but this game also marks a first for the beloved ShotCaller series: tonight I am predicting all four quarters of Damian Lillard’s shot activity. As a guide, I’ve identified four rules that drive the predictions for each quarter. (Quick side note: when the areas don’t equal the predicted shot count in a quarter, there are expected to be multiple shots in an area.)
1. This season there is a moderate, negative relationship between the previous game’s 1st quarter shot count and the upcoming game’s 1st quarter shot count.
This means as the 1st quarter shots from one game go up, the next game they go down (and vice versa). Last game, Dame took three shots in the 1st quarter – compare this to all of Dame’s other key 1st quarter stats, and…. he’s taking 4 shots. Likely two at the rim, and one each from the areas around the arc.
2. This season there is a moderate, positive relationship between the previous game’s 2nd quarter shot count and the upcoming game’s 2nd quarter shot count.
Similar to the first rule, and relatively straightforward – if the previous game’s 2nd quarter shots were high, the next game’s will usually be high as well (and vice versa). Last game he fired 4 shots; this game he’s taking 4 again. Expect two of the four at the rim, one each from each wing.
3. This season there is a moderate, positive relationship between the previous game’s minutes played and the upcoming game’s 3rd quarter shot count.
Last game Dame played 35 minutes, just a shade lower than normal; so expect him to shoot just a tad lower than normal in this quarter. A bit of an odd relationship? Yes, definitely. However, to completely misquote contemporary philosopher Dion Waiters: “Men lie. Women lie. Numbers don’t.” Expect one shot from each area.
4. This season there is a moderate, negative relationship between the opponents rank and 4th quarter shot count.
This is easily my favorite pattern of Dame’s shot activity, and just oh-so intuitive: the better the opponent, the more Lillard shoots in the 4th quarter. Entirely logical, given that he is the reigning King of Clutch. The 4th quarter is interesting, as its the emergence of a unique shot area – the midrange! Expect a shot from there, and the remaining six shots at the rim and behind the arc.
And there you have it. Dame Lillard: four quarters, 18 shots. These predictions were the natural progression of this project, based on my previous results here, here, and here. As you can see, this is a tricky ordeal: some (but not all) of the best relationships are in-game quarter-to-quarter performance. The best forward may be to predict during the game, at the conclusion of each quarter. Some of that will depend on tonight’s performance, which leaves us here:
Let ‘em know Dame. pic.twitter.com/hkghGVYaGj
— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) March 2, 2015
Enjoy.
Data and photo support provided courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball-Reference.com, and data extraordinaire Darryl Blackport.