Russell Westbrook’s Triple-Double Streak From The Perspective of DRE

Feb 19, 2015; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) passes the ball to forward Nick Collison (4) in front of Dallas Mavericks center Tyson Chandler (6) during the fourth quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Russell Westbrook is ridiculously good. Statistics aside, just watching Westbrook continuously throw himself at the rim after slicing through defenders should make anyone a believer. This past few weeks, however, Westbrook has stolen the NBA headlines with a streak of four straight triple-doubles, a feat matched most recently by Michael Jordan in 1989. Moreover, from FiveThirtyEight’s Neil Paine, Westbrook joined Oscar Robertson as the only players to average more than 30 points, 9 rebounds, and 10 assists over a calendar month. Westbrook is currently on a historic run, one at which we can only watch in awe. Nevertheless, by using Kevin Ferrigan’s DRE, or Daily RAPM Estimate, statistic (find the full explanation here), we find that this triple double streak isn’t even peak Westbrook.

Below is a graph of Westbrook’s game-by-game DRE :

The triple-double streak is represented by dates 2/24/2015 through 3/4/2015. As you can see, for the first three games, DRE does not value Westbrook’s production as anything particularly special. Now, this is likely because DRE penalizes for FGA, FTA, and TOV, three box score stats that Westbrook has no trouble racking up. There are of course extenuating circumstances, such as the absence of Durant, that led to Westbrook having an ABSURD USG% of 46.2% over that stretch. However, because DRE does not seem to flattered by the triple-doubles, I decided to look at all four game spans for Westbrook this season to see if he played a better consecutive four game span at some point.

On the x-axis, 1 refers to Westbrook’s first four games in which he played, 2 refers to games two through five, and so on. The triple double games are data point 36. This shows that Westbrook’s streak is in no way peak Westbrook. Our fascination with nice, round numbers and arbitrary milestones has pulled a critical mass of attention to the human wrecking ball known as Russell, but Westbrook has been putting up RIDICULOUS numbers all year.

Let’s compare the streak to the games referred by data point 27.

From this chart, we find that the four game span in early February saw Westbrook hit more of his shots, use slightly less possessions (Kevin Durant played vs. NOP and vs LAC), and turn the ball over a bit less. It is also crazy to note the LAC game resulted in a negative DRE, so it’s fair to say Russell WENT OFF against The Magic and the Pelicans.

So by using DRE, I have been to identify Westbrook’s peak performance of the year. It came during his historic month, yet because his stats did not have the aesthetic statistical appeal of a triple-double, Westbrook did not get the same publicity. The NBA is now on constant Russell Watch, but this should have started about three weeks earlier.