The Los Angeles Clippers without Blake Griffin

Feb 11, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (right) talks with Los Angeles Clippers head coach Doc Rivers during the third quarter against the Houston Rockets at Staples Center. The Los Angeles Clippers won 110-95. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, on the BS Report, Bill Simmons and Zach Lowe discussed the state of the Los Angeles Clippers without Blake Griffin, noting second-tier MVP candidate Chris Paul and Deandre Jordan having a helluva contract year. Since they talked about the Rockets without Dwight Howard in the same breath, which I wrote about here, I thought I would use the same analysis to see what has changed with the Clippers since Griffin’s injury, looking at the team as a whole, then specifically at Paul and Jordan.

I grouped games played by the team according to whether or not Griffin played, with the split coming on their February 2nd game against the Thunder. A caveat to be noted is that the sample size without Griffin is smaller than the one I had for Dwight Howard, and in that small sample the competition has been fierce. The Clippers have faced a slew of likely Western Conference playoff teams including Memphis twice, along with two back-to backs. Looking at those splits, I use a test[1.I use a two sample T-Test for Equal Means to determine difference in statistical categorie] to see if the average of a statistic could have been obtained by chance using the average from the period with Griffin as a sort of range of possibilities for that statistic. points scored, points scored against, FGA, FG%, 3PA, 3P%, FTA, FT%, ORB, TRB, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, fouls, possessions (NC’s own, using true possession counts!), offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency.

For the team as a whole, three categories are on the cusp of being significantly different without Griffin; personal fouls committed, possessions, and defensive efficiency[2. Each with a p-value well below 0.10, the generally accepted benchmark for statistical significance.] Personal fouls have gone up from an average of 20.6 to 23.1[3. With a p-value of 0.056]. Possessions have increased from an average of 92.7 to 96.29[4. With a p-value of 0.055]. Finally, defensive efficiency  has decreased from 114.6 to 105.5[6. With a p-value of 0.058.] So, we can connect Griffin’s absence to the trends of the Clippers fouling more, playing faster and defending better, with some degree of certainty (although we can’t exactly describe how his absence has created those trends).

Unsurprisingly, Chris Paul’s game stats show statistically significant increases in both field goals attempted (with no change in field goal percentage) and assists. FGA have increased from 13.4 to 16.2[7. with a p-value of 0.03]. Assists have increased from an average of 9.5 per game to 12.5[8. With a p-valye of 0.0006].

Clear in these tests is the emergence of Deandre Jordan as a dominant force. His stats show change in free throw attempts, defensive rebounds, steals, blocks, and points. His FTAs are up from 3.7 to 11.2[9. With a p-value of 0.02] and no change in FT% (hello, Hack-a-Jordan). Defensive rebounds are up from 9.1 to 13.1[10. with a p-value of 0.007], with no significant change in offensive rebounds (see Ian Levy’s article for more info on this). Steals are up slightly, maybe from 0.9 to 1.5[11. With a p-value of 0.09]. Blocks are down slightly, from 2.3 to 1.6[12. With a p-value 0.08]. Finally, his points are up from an average of 10.3 to 14.9[14. with a p-value of 0.07].

Without Griffin, both Paul and Jordan have been carrying a heavier load and it’s showing up dramatically in their counting statistics. Of course none of this is earth shattering news to anyone watching Clippers games, but it will be interesting to see if these trends continue especially in a year where more conversation than ever has happened around rest and usage rates.