Fantasy Baseball: 2015 Miami Marlins Fantasy Outlook
By Mike Marteny
Mar 10, 2015; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (left) greets teammate second baseman Dee Gordon (right) after Gordon scored a run against the Washington Nationals during a spring training game at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Here we are! Pitchers and catchers have reported, and Spring Training is in full swing (pun intended). Most of us will start having fantasy baseball drafts very soon, and we here at Fantasy CPR are no different. It is time to dust off the notes from last season, and check out which players could have an impact on your fantasy league.
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For each team, I will rundown the projected lineup, players to watch, and a complete list of 2014 stats to get you prepared for your upcoming fantasy drafts. We are finished with the American League East. Let’s move on to their National League counterparts!
In case you missed any:
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Atlanta Braves
2015 Miami Marlins Projected Starting Lineup:
C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.220, 11 HR, 44 RBI, 0 SB)
1B: Mike Morse (.279, 16 HR, 61 RBI, 0 SB) with San Francisco
2B: Dee Gordon (.289, 2 HR, 34 RBI, 64 SB) with Dodgers
SS: Adeiny Hechavarria (.276, 1 HR, 34 RBI, 7 SB)
3B: Martin Prado (.282, 12 HR, 58 RBI, 3 SB) with Atlanta/Yankees
LF: Christian Yelich (.284, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 21 SB)
CF: Marcell Ozuna (.269, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 3 SB)
RF: Giancarlo Stanton (.288, 37 HR, 105 RBI)
The Marlins did a lot to improve their lineup this offseason. This was one of the conditions of Giancarlo Stanton re-upping with the team. The team has followed through in that respect. They even signed veteran Ichiro Suzuki (.284, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 15 SB) as their fourth outfielder!
Stanton is a top three pick. If I had to pick one player who was most likely to hit 50 home runs or drive in 140 runs, it would be Stanton. I have him as my second pick, and I wouldn’t blame you if you took him first overall.
Saltalamacchia’s career numbers indicate that he had a down year, at least average-wise. He has solid power, and can drive in some runs in this lineup. He is a fringe standard league options, and should be owned in all leagues of 12 teams or larger.
Mike Morse has a lot of power, and those in the NL East are no stranger to it. He hit 31 homers and drove in 95 runs with the 2011 Washington Nationals. He has not come close to those numbers since. Some of it had to do with nagging injuries, but most of it has been due to his inability to make solid contact. The Marlins are hoping that a move back east will help him out. At any rate, Morse is one of the guys that has good power and a seemingly everyday job. He is worth a mid round pick in standard leagues as long as his average stays in the .280 range. Keep an eye on him this spring.
The biggest offseason prize for the Marlins just might be Dee Gordon. Gordon had a breakout year last year with the Dodgers, and finally made good on his enormous potential. His speed is a game-changer, and something the Marlins have chased since they lost Juan Pierre. Gordon is one of the few guys that can steal 60 or more bases, and will be drafted accordingly. Just keep in mind that he was a career .256 hitter before last year. You may not get the nice average with the steals this year. Still, be prepared to use a third of fourth round pick if you want Gordon.
Hechavarria is a solid option in deep leagues because he hits for a decent average. He has no power and little speed to speak of, so he doesn’t warrant attention in standard leagues.
The Marlins have hope for Prado because he revived his season after the trade to the Yankees. He hit .316 and slugged seven homers in 133 at-bats in pinstripes. Whether that success carries on to South Florida is anyone’s guess, but Prado still holds value in all leagues because of his multi-position eligibility. Especially in those leagues with only three bench slots. Prado is worth a late round standard league pick.
You know your outfield is stacked when you have a future Hall of Famer as bench fodder. Yelich is only 23 years old, and holds a career .285 batting average in 206 major league games. The average is not a fluke; he hit .311 in the minors. The speed is no fluke either. He stole 59 bases 306 minor league games. His average and 25-30 steal potential make Yelich a nice late round pick in standard leagues. You deep leaguers know who he is already since most of us have owned him at one time over the last couple of years.
Ozuna is never going to hit for a high average, but it won’t hurt you either. He is a legit 25 homer threat, and deserves to be picked late in all mixed leagues. Late power without the average hit is hard to come by.
As for Ichiro, he is best left for deep leagues only at this point. He will play when the Marlins visit AL parks, and he will be a popular pinch hitter, but what little power he once had is gone. He still has decent speed, but if he is only getting one at-bat per game, you can do better in any league of 14 teams or smaller.
Next: Let's Take A Look At The Rotation
Feb 20, 2015; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Mat Latos (35) talks with pitcher Jarred Cosart (R) at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
2015 Miami Marlins Projected Rotation:
Jose Fernandez (4-2, 2.44 ERA, 70K in 8 starts)
Henderson Alvarez (12-7, 2.65 ERA, 111K)
Mat Latos (5-5, 3.25 ERA, 74K in 16 starts with Cincinnati)
Jarred Cosart (13-11, 3.69 ERA, 115K)
Dan Haren (13-11, 4.02 ERA, 145K with Dodgers)
Tom Koehler (10-10, 3.81 ERA, 153K)
Steve Cishek (4-5, 3.17 ERA, 39/43 saves, 84K)
The Marlins have one of the most pitching rich minor league systems in the league. They brought in veterans Haren and Latos to help bridge the gap to Justin Nicolino, Trevor Williams, and Jose Urena. Jose Fernandez will also be out for at least the first couple of months of the season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. That means one more job could be up for grabs this spring.
Fernandez is worth drafting in all standard leagues. He may not be back to his old stellar self until after the All Star break, but if you are in contention, he could help bring home a title if y0u are patient. The best thing is that if you fall out of contention, he will be a valuable trade chip to someone who can afford to wait.
Nicolino, Urena, and Williams should be owned in all dynasty formats, and are worth a look in keeper leagues if you keep a lot of players. They are not worthy of standard league consideration unless one of them wins a job this spring. I wouldn’t rule that out. Latos is injury prone, and the metrics suggest that Koehler may have got more than a little lucky last year.
I have a feeling that Latos will be the opening day starter. He had a string of four straight 180K seasons before last year’s injury shortened campaign. He has good striekout potential and a career 3.34 ERA. He is a good second or third starter for your fantasy rotation.
Alvarez is not a big strikeout guy, but he knows how to induce outs. He already has one no-hitter to his credit, and he is not yet 25 years old. Alvarez doesn’t walk a lot of batters and induces a lot of groundouts, so he can go deep into games. He holds some extra value in leagues that count complete games. He has five in his last three seasons. He is a good fit for the middle of your fantasy rotation.
Cosart is not a strikeout pitcher, and he walks quite a few batters, but he has always managed to keep his ERA under control. He will give up the occasional big inning, but most of the time he is able to work out of trouble. He will keep his ERA under 4, and is a good fit for the back of your fantasy rotation.
Haren had three straight seasons of 200K in his prime, but that Dan Haren won’t be back anytime soon. Haren is a stop-gap at age 34. The Marlins are just hoping to get some quality innings out of him while waiting on their great farm system pitching to come to fruition. Haren won’t win any leagues for you, but he won’t lose them either. His WHIP is pretty low (1.18 last year, which is also his career mark), so he is worth a spot on your standard league bench for streaming purposes.
Koehler has better major league numbers than minor league numbers, which is always a red flag. The Marlins just hope he keeps the seat warm until Nicolino is ready, which could be as soon as the end of spring training. If he makes the rotation, you can take him in any leagues of 12 or more teams, just use him in favorable matchups.
Cishek is a poor man’s Craig Kimbrel. His ERA and WHIP are marginally higher, but the strikeout ratio is almost the same. He will have many more save opportunities this year than he did last year. If you can snag him in the middle rounds, do it. His value will only go up as the season progresses and the Marlins keep winning. I wouldn’t be surprised if he saved more games than Kimbrel, and came close to his strikeout total.
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for the rest of the team-by-team baseball previews!