2015 NCAA Tournament: ACC Bids

Mar 12, 2015; Greensboro, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers forward Anthony Gill (13) and guard Justin Anderson (1) and guard Marial Shayok (4) celebrate from the bench against the Florida State Seminoles in the second half during the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum. The Virginia Cavaliers won 58-44. Mandatory Credit: Evan Pike-USA TODAY Sports

Here we are. March. This is the month that provides so many things for sports fans. The NHL and NBA are jockeying for playoff spots. The official beginning of the NFL “year” is here, and so are the cuts and trades that will form next year’s championship landscape. The Cubs have hopes of ending their championship drought. And the 2015 NCAA tournament is just a little less than a week away.

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Here at Fantasy CPR, we will keep you up to date on which teams are fighting for a tournament berth, which teams are in, and which teams should be in. We will go conference by conference for the major conferences. The traditional one bid conferences will all get their day in print as well. Follow along as we unveil our projected teams up until Selection Sunday!

We will begin in the ACC because their conference tournament began last night. There are a lot of teams in the ACC that deserve a spot, but how many will get in? Let’s take a look!

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Through the Phog

Big wins are wins against the RPI top 50. Bad losses are to teams under 100 in the RPI. RPI rankings are in parenthesis.

LOCKS:

Virginia (28-2, 16-2 ACC, RPI: 6, SOS: 21)

Big Wins: at (9)Maryland 76-65, at (20)Virginia Commonwealth 74-57, vs. (32)Davidson 83-72, vs. (46)North Carolina State 61-51, at (25)Notre Dame 62-56, at (13)North Carolina 75-64, vs. (17)Louisville 52-47, at (46)North Carolina State 51-47

Bad Losses: NONE

The Cavaliers have been one of the dominant teams all season with their stifling defense and all-around attack. Their only losses were on the road at Duke, and in the regular season finale at Louisville. They earned the number one seed in the ACC tournament, and moved to 29-2 for just the second time in school history.

Virginia will likely get a number one seed since they made it to the semifinals of the ACC tournament. The teams that could knock them off of that perch are Arizona, Kansas, and Wisconsin. All three would likely have to win their conference tournaments to have a shot. Right now either scenario seems unlikely

Projected seed: 1 (Syracuse region)

Mar 7, 2015; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Jahlil Okafor (15) reacts with guard Matt Jones (13) in the second half. The Blue Devils defeated the Tar Heels 84-77 at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Duke (28-3, 15-3 ACC, RPI: 4, SOS: 12)

Big Wins: vs. (18)Michigan State 81-71, vs. (31)Temple 74-54, at (5)Wisconsin 80-70, vs. (49)Wofford 84-55, at (17)Louisville 63-52, at (35)St. John’s 77-68, at (6)Virginia 69-63, vs. (25)Notre Dame 90-60, vs. (13)North Carolina 92-90, at (13)North Carolina 84-77

Bad Losses: NONE

Duke boasts road wins against two top ten teams in the polls and the RPI rankings. They lost back-to-back games to (46) North Carolina State and (61)Miami (FL) in mid-January. Those losses could keep them from a number one seed. They lost to Notre Dame in South Bend at the end of January, but exacted revenge with a 30 point whipping at Cameron Indoor ten days later.

The Blue Devils own the two seed in the ACC tournament, and destroyed the North Carolina State team that beat them in Raleigh earlier this year. Their advancement to the ACC quarterfinals likely solidifies their number one seed.

Duke is led by super-freshman Jahlil Okafor, who is projected by many to be the first pick in the 2015 NBA Draft. He has a pretty good cast around him in Quinn Cook, Justise Winslow, and Tyus Jones. Duke may be better suited to make an extended NCAA tournament run than they have been at any time in the last decade.

Duke’s seed will likely hinge on whether the committee seeds by geography or by merit. If they seed by geography, Arizona, Gonzaga, or Wisconsin will get the one seed in the Los Angeles (west) region. If not, Duke could be sent all the way out to L.A. for their regional games since Kentucky will be the one in the Cleveland region, Villanova will be the one in either the Syracuse ot the Houston region, and Virginia will get the other. The next scenario is that Duke gets the one in the Houston region and Villanova is sent out west. That could happen if the Wildcats lose in the Big East tournament.

Projected seed: 1 (Houston region)

Mar 12, 2015; Greensboro, NC, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Mike Brey reacts in the second half. The Fighting Irish defeated the Hurricanes 70-63 in the quarter finals of the ACC Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Notre Dame (26-5,14-4 ACC, RPI: 25, SOS: 91)

Big wins: vs. (28)Michigan State 79-78, at (13)North Carolina 71-70, at (46)North Carolina State 81-78, vs. (4)Duke 77-73, at (17)Louisville 71-59

Bad Losses: NONE

The Irish have two losses to teams outside of the RPI top 50 in (67)Syracuse and (66)Pittsburgh. Still, winning at Louisville and at North Carolina will likely help their seeding. Their only out of conference loss was to (23) Providence back in November. They beat a couple of quality teams out of conference in (70)UMass, Michigan State, and (57) Purdue. Their strength of schedule took a big hit by the Irish playing eight teams with an RPI under 200. Seven of those were under 250, and all of those were out of conference.

They beat Miami in the ACC tourney on Thursday. That is another good win that might be enough to move them up to a three seed. If they win on Friday, they are definitely a three.

Notre Dame is second in the nation in field goal percentage. That is the benchmark of their success. Nearly everyone on the team is a good shooter. Led by Senior guard Jerian Grant, the Irish are going to be a tough out. It will take a great defensive effort to send this team home. This is one of those teams that could make a lot of noise depending on where they end up in the brackets.

The Irish have a fairly low RPI for a team ranked in the top 12 in both polls. The strength of schedule is also very high for a team in this position. However, the fact that they didn’t have any bad losses, and had two road wins against top 15 teams will help out their seeding. Right now, the Irish are no lower than a four. Depending on what happens in conference tournament play, they could move up to a three.

Projected seed: 3

Mar 7, 2015; Louisville, KY, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Quentin Snider (2) and forward Montrezl Harrell (24) celebrate with Cardinals forward/center Mangok Mathiang (12) after taking the lead against the Virginia Cavaliers during the second half at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Virginia 59-57. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Louisville (24-7, 12-6 ACC, RPI: 17, SOS: 18)

Big Wins: vs. (43)Ohio State 64-55, vs. (13)North Carolina 78-68, vs. (6)Virginia 59-57

Bad Losses: NONE

Louisville only had one loss outside of the RPI top 50. That was at (67) Syracuse. They had five losses, all in conference, to RPI top 25 teams. They had a few quality wins out of conference in Ohio State, (56) Indiana, and (93) Minnesota.

Louisville is not a great shooting team, but they are an excellent rebounding team. Montrezl Harrell and Terry Rozier are tough matchups for anyone. This is not particularly a good passing team either. A team that can match their size and keep the athletic Rozier off the boards has a good shot at beating them.

The loss to North Carolina on Thursday could push Louisville down to a four seed.  I doubt that the ACC lands three of the four three seeds. Since Notre Dame and North Carolina both advanced to the ACC quarterfinals, they will both get threes.

Projected seed: 4

Mar 11, 2015; Greensboro, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Joel James (42) and forward J.P. Tokoto (13) and guard Marcus Paige (5) react in the first half in the second round at Greensboro Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina (22-10, 11-7 ACC, RPI: 13, SOS: 2)

Big Wins: at (32)Davidson 90-72, vs. (43)Ohio State 82-74, vs. (17)Louisville 72-71, at (46)North Carolina State 81-79

Bad Losses: NONE

Strength of schedule can be a bit misleading. Just because you are playing good teams does not mean that you are beating them. The Tarheels are a prime example of that. Nine of their ten losses are to RPI top 50 teams. Seven of those are in the top 25. Conversely, they only have one win agianst an RPI top 25 team. They also have out of conference losses to Iowa, Butler and Kentucky that could further hinder their seeding.

The duo of Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson on the inside is a formidable one. That is why they matched up with Louisville so well. They are second in the nation in rebounding, and lead the nation in assists. They play very well as a team, and they score a lot of points (16th in the country at 78.3 points per game) because they shoot well (47.3%, 29th in the nation). Teams that have a good inside-outside game gave them trouble. That is why Duke beat them twice, and they lost to Kentucky and Iowa.

The win over Louisville in the conference tourney gives them a second win over the Cardinals this season. This could push them up to a three seed depending on what happens in other conference tournaments. Oklahoma and Notre Dame seem to have two of the three seeds locked up. Iowa State likely won’t do any worse than a three, so that leaves one left for either Louisville, North Carolina, Baylor, Maryland and maybe Utah. I think the Tarheels need at least one more big win to make it up to the three line. If they can take out Duke on Friday, it might get the job done.

Projected seed: 4

Mar 11, 2015; Greensboro, NC, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack guard Anthony Barber (12) and forward Beejay Anya (21) react in the second half. The Wolfpack defeated the Panthers 81-70 in the second round at Greensboro Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina State (19-12, 10-8 ACC, RPI: 46, SOS: 7)

Big Wins: vs. (37)Boise State 60-54, vs. (50)Louisiana Tech 73-65, vs. (4)Duke 87-75, at (17)Louisville 74-65, at (13)North Carolina 58-46

Bad Losses: vs. (103)Clemson 57-68, at (144)Wake Forest 84-88, at (161)Boston College 63-79

Two of their three bad losses are on the road in conference, so they likely won’t be penalized that much. The big wins over Duke, Louisville, and North Carolina are what is keeping the Wolfpack comfortably in the field. Another win over Pitt in the first round of the ACC tourney assured that. Even though they lost to Duke again, that is not a bad loss. The Wolfpack are going to make some highly seeded team pretty nervous next Saturday or Sunday.

The strength of this team is perimeter shooting and rebounding. They lack a strong presence inside, but all of their starting five have a nose for the ball. They struggle against teams that have good size, but if they get hot, they can beat anyone. Just ask Duke and North Carolina.

NC State won’t have to sweat their bid, but I doubt they will be very happy with their seeding. As we have seen in prior years, the committee doesn’t pay a whole lot of attention to RPI. The fact that they are 6-4 in their last ten and have a fairly low RPI for an at-large team means that they will have a rough matchup in the second round…….if they can get out of the first.

Projected seed: 9

Next: Let's Look At The Teams That Will Be Sweating On Sunday

Jan 28, 2015; Coral Gables, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes guard Manu Lecomte (left) sits next to teammate Miami Hurricanes guard Angel Rodriguez (right) during the second half against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at BankUnited Center. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Bubble teams:

Miami (FL): (21-11, 10-8 ACC, RPI: 61, SOS: 76)

Big Wins: at (4)Duke 90-74, vs. (46)North Carolina State 65-60

Bad Losses: vs. (155)Eastern Kentucky 44-72, vs. (147)Georgia Tech 50-70, at (144)Wake Forest 70-72

The bad far outweigh the good here. They got blown out at home by Eastern Kentucky and Georgia Tech. You can forgive a two point road loss to a decent Wake Forest team. They also dropped out of conference games to Green Bay and Providence. While they are not bad losses, they certainly don’t help.

Miami doesn’t do any one thing well, but they are a scrappy bunch. Led by junior G Angel Rodriguez, they can play any kind of game that their opponent wants. As you can see by the big win over Duke, they can play with anyone when they play well, but consistency has been a problem. They did take Virginia to double overtime before falling in their first conference game. They also managed to play Louisville, Notre Dame, and North Carolina tough.

I think the Hurricanes needed to beat Notre Dame to feel good about their chances. Their RPI would be one of the worst of any at-large teams in the last 15 years. That said, it is almost unheard of for a team that plays in a conference like the ACC to win 20 games and have a winning record in conference and not get in. However, that was before these newfangled super-conferences created unbalanced schedules.

Five of their wins were against bottom feeders Virginia Tech and Boston College. They lost the two to Wake and Georgia Tech, who are also at the bottom of the conference. The only top tier team that they played more than once in the regular season was Louisville. That unbalanced conference slate can only hurt them this year. As of now, Miami needs some help.

Projected seed: OUT

Feb 24, 2015; South Bend, IN, USA; Syracuse Orange forward Rakeem Christmas (25) looks toward the bench in the first half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at the Purcell Pavilion. Syracuse won 65-60. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Syracuse (18-13, 9-9 ACC, RPI: 68, SOS: 33)

Big Wins: vs. (45) Iowa 63-60, vs. (50)Louisiana Tech 71-69, vs. (17)Louisville 69-59, at (25)Notre Dame 65-60

Bad Losses: vs (102) California 59-73, at (103)Clemson 53-66

The early season wins look good, but they also had a couple of questionable losses. to Michigan and Cal. They padded their conference stats with seven wins against the bottom four teams in the league.

Rakeem Christmas is one of the best players in the country. He is a force to be reckoned with on the inside. Michael Gbinje passes like a guard, but is long enough to be a three or four in the college game. that said, the Orange didn’t have much around their two stars. Teams that played as a team were able to beat them because they didn’t have to worry about anyone else on the court.

Syracuse has a lower SOS and RPI than Miami, but their body of work reads a bit better. Then again, they didn’t beat the teams that they needed to. They lost their only matchup against Miami, they lost to NC State in the conference tourney in a game that wasn’t really close, and they lost to Pitt twice. Those are the teams right around them. Then the unbalanced schedule looms even larger for Syracuse. They only played Virginia, Louisville and North Carolina once.

It would take a lot of help for Syracuse to get in. If they had been able to beat North Carolina State, they likely would have jumped ahead of Miami even. Now they face the same issues: lack of quality wins, and a lackluster RPI for an at-large team. They will likely be on the outside looking in.

Projected seed: OUT

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for the rest of the NCAA tourney seedings by conference leading up to Selection Sunday!

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