The New York Mets were dealt a huge blow on Monday when they learned that Zack Wheeler will require Tommy John surgery. Can they spin that need into a trade for Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies?
Just when the New York Mets thought that their rotation questions were finally being answered with staff ace Matt Harvey returning from Tommy John surgery, the team gets dealt another blow. According to a team announcement (h/t Anthony DiComo, MLB.com), number two starter Zack Wheeler has torn the UCL in his pitching elbow and will follow Harvey down the Tommy John path, missing the entire 2015 season.
So how do the Mets go about replacing a 24-year-old starter who went 11-11 with a 3.54 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and a 9.08 K/9 ratio in 2014?
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Internally, the Mets have a few arms to choose from. Dillon Gee, who the team has been lucky thus far not to trade, could be the immediate recipient of the open spot in the rotation. Additionally, top prospect Noah Syndergaard could get the call-up as well, having nothing more to prove at Triple-A. However, Gee was slated to join the bullpen after putting up uninspiring 2014 campaign (4.00 ERA, 4.52 FIP), whereas Syndergaard threw a career-high 133 innings in 2014, all at Triple-A Las Vegas, and may not be completely ready for a full workload at the Major League level in 2015.
That said, there is one pitcher available on the market that the Mets could consider, although a trade for Philadelphia Phillies ace Cole Hamels is highly unlikely for a number of reasons. That wonāt make him any less desirable to the Mets, especially after the 31-year-old lefty posted career-bests in ERA (2.46), FIP (3.07), HR/FB% (8.2%), and average fastball velocity (92.1 MPH), while reaching the 200 inning mark for the fifth straight season.
However, like I said, there are a number of reasons why the Mets and Phillies will not match up for a trade here:
1.) Salary Obligations
Cole Hamels has 4-years, $94 million worth of guaranteed money still owed to him on his existing contract with Philadelphia. In addition to his average salary of $23.5 million over that span, the team owns an option worth $20 million for the 2019 season, an option that vests at $24 million if Hamels pitches 400 innings combined in 2017 and 2018. If that option isnāt picked up, it has a $6 million buy-out, making the total value of the contract $100 million over four season, at the very least.

Knowing what we do about the New York Mets, who have an estimated payroll of $94,761,105 (according to Spotrac), they arenāt likely to add on $23.5 million in salary for each of the next four seasons inĀ the middle of a youth movement. In certainly doesnāt make sense in the immediate picture, and it makes even less sense in terms of the long-term plan, as weāll get into in the next point.
2.) The Cost of Acquisition
We know for a fact that the Phillies are looking for top talent in return for Hamels and while they are interested first and foremost in clearing salary, Philadelphia also wants to rebuild a depleted farm system and get younger quickly, so they arenāt going to give their ace away either. Of the interested teams, the one we hear the most about is the Boston Red Sox, with the Phillies coveting top catching prospect Blake Swihart and Bostonās young arms in return. Swihart is the number two catching prospect in the game, and weād have to assume thatĀ the Phillies are also looking at Henry Owens and Garrin Cecchini. That means the top three prospects in Bostonās system, which ranks as one of the top farms in baseball.
Considering the Mets in that regard, weāre talking about the aforementioned Noah Syndergaard, Kevin Plawecki, and Brandon Nimmo. Syndergaard in his own right in a non-starter for the Mets, as they simply cannot afford to give up a Major League ready arm at this point in their rebuild. Additionally, the team is looking at needing Nimmo and number four prospect Michael Conforto to anchor the outfield in the next couple of years. After the top five, the Mets just donāt have the talent to get a deal done, especially when you considerā¦
3.) The Stigma of the Inter-Divisional Trade
While the Phillies are highly motivated to move Hamels and his salary, they are not highly motivated to see him pitch against them four to five times a season over the next half decade either. Inter-divisional trades are rare, and they become even more so when star players are involved. When they are completed, there is usually a luxury cost added to them, and given the high demands of the Phillies already, it would take Hamels completely off the table for the Mets, even if the aforementioned salary obligations and prospect cost didnāt already.
That all said, the Mets are likely to try and stabilize their rotation with either Syndergaard or Gee, or perhaps a combination of both, which would allow the Mets to stunt Syndergaards service clock by keeping him in the minors for April. In the meantime, the teamās time table for contention may be pushed forward another year.
That may not be what Mets fans want to hear, but with Cole Hamels being unlikely, it may be the best path to continue on.
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