Week 20 in Review: March Mania

Mar 14, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (22) drives against Memphis Grizzlies guard Nick Calathes (12) at FedExForum. Memphis defeated Milwaukee 96-83. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

The March Madness college basketball season is almost upon us, but the NBA isn’t stopping. In this league, the worst teams would look like all-star teams in the NCAA, and former college stars litter the benches everywhere. Some probably long for the days of the tournament, but let’s not forget the real pecking order here in the basketball universe. The playoffs are still wide open in a few respects, and a healthy portion of these games are very important. Let’s move on to our topics of the week, dredging the NBA landscape for stories of every kind.

Who Are You, Khris?

Khris Middleton has gotten a lot of attention lately because of how high he’s ranked on ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus leaderboard. Looking through the names at the top, almost everyone out of the top-18 have been All-Stars with the exception of Kawhi Leonard (a finals MVP), Draymond Green (a defensive player of the year candidate), and … Khris Middleton, seventh overall and just a hair behind Anthony Davis as of March 15th. But instead of staring more at his stats, let’s get a qualitative description.

Most of these plus-minus stars are defensive role players, but Middleton is actually a fairly active component of his team’s offense. Here’s a set of 12 of his field goals from a recent game where he scored 30. You can see a number of jump shots coming off curls and picks, and even off an inbound play. He’s a great shooter, shooting 44% from behind the arc so far this season and 41% for his career; he’s also at 85.6% from the free throw line for his career. He’s roughly equally likely to take a pull-up jump shot as a catch-and-shoot attempt. He’s great off screens, ranking tenth right now in total points off screens via Synergy, but he’s a fairly varied scorer who can also do things like post-up, where he’s one of the most efficient players there.

Of course, Khris is more known for his defense. Here’s an example where he guards Tyreke Evans, staying with him through a screen and then following him at the hip to the rim and forcing a turnover. He’s a good help defender too, coming over in this clip to swipe the ball away from Oladipo. And finally, here’s some textbook team defense where he denies a pass and defends a pick and roll well by recovering and contesting Anthony Davis’ shot, which was missed. He’s definitely a capable defender, and other systems like Synergy see his value too; he ranks fourth in points allowed per isolation play here.

To describe Khris simply, I’d say he’s a lot like Wesley Matthews. Both guys are capable defenders who are fairly well-rounded on offense but derive most of their value from their outside shooting. Middleton, however, is a bit larger and covers more positions with regularity. (It’s tough to figure out exactly which position he plays with Milwaukee’s system, but small forward is the best estimate.) Of course, his distinguishing characteristic is as an ace defender for a surprisingly great defensive team that’s much better when he’s on the court.

Mar 14, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers guard George Hill (3) brings the ball up court against the Boston Celtics at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Boston defeats Indiana 93-89. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Indiana Is Back In Case Anyone Cares

The Pacers, thanks to their suffocating defense, depressing offense, and lack of starpower, are hardly a popular team. After Paul George broke his leg, the team was written off, but they still have most of the ingredients they had last season when they captured the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. Hibbert is still a master of verticality, David West is back to playing well, George Hill has more freedom without Lance Stephenson mucking things up, and the team’s defensive system is still solid. Through the first 47 games, they gave up a disappointing 104.3 points per 100 possessions, but since then they’ve given up a paltry 100.3 points while winning 14 out of 18 games. And, of course, in the Eastern Conference it’s a greater accomplishment to play yourself out of the playoff race — things are still wide open for Indiana. That they’re doing this with players like Stuckey leading them on offense is actually quite impressive. You can see him in this video here leading them late during an overtime against a division rival, the Bucks.

Mar 15, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) during their victory against the Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Canada Centre. The Trail Blazers beat the Raptors 113-97. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Portland’s Replacement

After Wesley Matthews went down, people immediately wrote off the Blazers, who, despite their strong point differential and record, were not well respected anyway. But Portland had a very good season until the injury even with downtime given to their center, Robin Lopez, and LaMarcus Aldridge, their star. Yet the worst setback was Batum’s sudden and extreme shooting slump, which actually started before an injury in December. It’s a strange event because Batum has been such a consistent player and has usually shot around 37% from behind the arc with a large number of attempts, providing a big chunk of his value as a player. At the time of the All-Star break, he was at 27%, and fans were ready to write him off.

However, Batum’s shooting has returned, and his true-shooting percentage has gone from 47.8% before the break—a dreadful number—to nearly 65% after the break. He just had another good shooting game Sunday night, as Portland destroyed a reeling Toronto club. This is, essentially, a way for Portland to replace Matthews’ value. Using Basketball-Reference’s Box Plus-Minus, you can see that his offensive value has fallen by a bit over 2 points per 100 possessions. If he plays like he has the past three years for the rest of the season, he is effectively adding that value to Portland, which should offset most of the loss Portland incurred from losing Wesley. Of course, this math will depend on how much you value Afflalo, and we’ll see this tested out over the next few weeks.

uMar 15, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) before a game against the Denver Nuggets at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Anthony Davis Can Jump Really High

Davis is turning into one of the best jump shooting big men in the league, which has turned him into an unstoppable force in pick-and-rolls because he’s also quick with super long arms and he can jump really high. Here’s a photo for an unbeliever. This suggests his vertical is over 36 inches, although the camera angle can be deceiving. Here’s the full video for the play; his elbows are, indeed, dangerously close to the rim. The fact that they’re in competition with the Thunder for the final playoff spot in the west with their roster is impressive, and it’s almost entirely because of Anthony Davis.

Oct 19, 2013; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Denver Nuggets guards Ty Lawson (3) and Randy Foye (4) walk back to the bench after failing to break a tie against the Los Angeles Clippers at the end of regulation time of an NBA preseason game at Mandalay Bay Events Center. The Clippers won the game in overtime 118-111. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Denver’s Great Week

Over the past week, Denver won all four of its games, including a gruesome couplet against the Golden State Warriors and Atlanta Hawks. Sure, the Warriors rested most of their starters, but they have a strong bench and the Hawks were at full strength. The team has actually won six of its last eight, and they absolutely decimated the Hawks, leading by 30 points going into the fourth quarter. The Nuggets have had a sorry season, so what happened?

Before Denver’s last eight games, the team was shooting a disastrously low 31% from behind the three-point line; since then it’s at 36%. Outside shooting is notoriously volatile, and sometimes, regardless of the opposing defense, the shots just don’t go in. Since they’ve had shooters like Lawson and Foye, we shouldn’t expect them to keep shooting at 31% anyhow. They’ve also had better games from Gallinari—you can see him nail a few shots against the Hawks here—hitting from outside the arc or driving inside. But a more tangible change is that without Nurkic, they’ve been playing smaller with Faried in the middle and Gallinari and Chandler as the forwards. This opens up the floor, as you can see here, and their offense has been much better since downsizing. Denver may be in a rebuilding state, having given away Afflalo and Mozgov, but they could be decent the rest of the season. The questions going forward are whether they’ll keep resting their players to protect their pick and what they’ll do with a non floor-spacing power forward in Faried or how he’ll work with Nurkic.

Jun 5, 2014; San Antonio, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Tim Duncan (21) tries to block a shot during the second quarter in game one of the 2014 NBA Finals at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

The Goaltenders

One overlooked statistic is the goaltend, which is a unique defensive stat in that it’s directly tied to a defender giving up points. We have few negative measures of a poor defender with traditional stats, and goaltends can be tracked back to the 90’s. Some shotblockers are criticized for being too aggressive, and one consequence is that you’ll be called for a goaltend. Thus, if you want to more accurately rate rim protectors, you can’t ignore goaltending.

Looking at everyone this season with at least 40 blocks so far, there are actually 13 players who have not been called for goaltending. Duncan and Marc Gasol are at the top of list, blocking 113 and 112 shots, respectively, without making that grievous error. Duncan, in fact, is known for his conservative defense, not biting on pump-fakes and not even leaving his feet for a good portion of his blocks. Marc Gasol has some of the same traits, and both are known for smart defense. But, importantly, both guys are not known for their high-flying athleticism. A number of goaltends happen when a defender tries to block a shot high in its arc and miscalculates the timing and swats it on its way down. Thus, Al Jefferson (and a number of guards) won’t get called for goaltending because he can’t get that high.

The table below has everyone else with at least 40 blocks sorted by the ratio of their total blocks to goaltending violations. Near the top, you get a number of unathletic shotblockers, but a few players are surprising: Tyson Chandler should be commended for his restraint, for instance. Near the bottom of the list, you get big men known for swatting shots near their apex and flying all over the court, like Howard, Drummond, and Andersen, who did that more in his younger days. Howard’s ratio is pretty astounding. How valuable can your shotblocking be if you commit a goaltend for every two blocks? Both he and Dalembert usually rank high in this category, historically. You can sort the leaders on NBAMiner and you’ll be pleased to find their faces near the top almost every single season for the past few years, along with JaVale McGee.

All three of those players have an aggressive style of defense where they try to reject every shot in the air, but this isn’t smart defense, of course. If you’re wrong with the timing on a shot high in the air, the other team is automatically rewarded with two points. It’s best to contest the shot, stay on your feet, and ready yourself for the rebound. Another problem with players with a high number of goaltends is that they’re more likely blocking shots away from the rim. Defenders like Duncan and Hibbert are more likely to block at the rim, which is a lot more valuable.

The term rim protector is popular now and it’ll probably be the fashionable adjective of the draft this year, but this is one way to differentiate defenders and grade them. There aren’t a lot of goaltending violations compared to other events like blocked shots, but in the modern NBA every little advantage helps — and it’s one way to measure the difference between Dalembert and Mozgov.