Week 21 in Review: Action Is Eloquence

Mar 16, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat center Hassan Whiteside (21) shoots over Cleveland Cavaliers center Tristan Thompson (13) during the fourth quarter at American Airlines Arena. Miami Heat defeated against the Cleveland Cavaliers 106-92. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The NBA is a second-tier sport for a little while, outshone by the NCAA tournament, and a number of people are being critical of the league for its reliance on guards on offense and spread floors. But we shouldn’t lament the days of slower games and back-to-the-basket isolation specialists — a move toward more skill should be a good thing, and action is eloquence. So let’s tackle a few random topics that crop up over the past week.

The Extrema of Whiteside

If you’re ever perusing Whiteside’s jaw-dropping stats on basketball-reference, like how he’s leading the league in blocks per opportunity and grabs well over a third of the available defensive boards, which also leads the league, you might be surprised to find that his BPM (a player metric showing the estimated total value of a player per possession) is actually negative and thus below average. This is odd because his PER is sky high, over 25, and b-ref’s old metric Win Shares loves him too. What’s going on?

Hassan Whiteside has four assists — no, not in a week or even a month. He has four total assists in over 1000 minutes of NBA action for his entire career. This is nearly unprecedented. The infamous Yinka Dare, who coined the “Yinka Dare award” from Hollinger for lowest assist rate in the season, also has four career assists in nearly identical minutes. This matters because BPM has two interaction terms — AST%*TRB% and AST%*USG% — with a large degree of influence on the final number. This makes him look awful on offense, even though he’s one of the most efficient scorers in the league. Whiteside is an outlier, in fact, because the other low-assist mavericks were poor scorers who didn’t touch the ball, while Hassan actually scores at a decent rate. No one who has played 1000 minutes or more has ever recorded fewer assists per minute in NBA history.

I imagine most people will brush this aside, but guys who were branded with the negative term “blackhole” often record five to ten times more assists per possession. Why pass the ball when your conversion rate is so high? Because eventually teams will catch on and you’ll be easier to defend and the defensive attention you create can’t be translated into easier baskets for your opponents. This is a basketball era where we have access to more information than ever, making it easier to exploit weaknesses. It’s really simple to, say, watch every assist he’s had this season (it doesn’t take long) or to look up how he has 11 bad pass turnovers this season and that his lack of of assists doesn’t come from a lack of opportunity. This doesn’t make him a terrible offensive player, according to BPM, but it’s another unique layer to a peculiar player.

Mar 19, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried (35) dunks against Houston Rockets guard Corey Brewer (33) in the second half at Toyota Center. Rockets won 118 to 108. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Faried: the Manimal Trapped in the Modern World

After an impressive showcase playing for the World Championship last summer, Faried has failed to capitalized on his momentum and has fizzled with a lukewarm season. I’m not exactly surprised — players of his ilk peak early and that improved post-game he showed last season, as noted by Zach Lowe, is not powerful enough to keep him out there if he’s not running around, leaping, and grabbing boards. He won’t be this athletic for too long, and then he becomes a small power forward without a lot of skill. His future with the team is interesting because he’s not exactly an ideal 4 in the modern NBA, while his 50 million dollar contract is tough to move. If Nurkic is the piece Denver wants long-term, Faried doesn’t seem like the right match in the frontcourt. Then again it’s Denver — they could trade for another non-shooting power forward and move Faried to small foward and I wouldn’t be surprised.

As a symbol of Faried’s season, last week he attempted the self-toss alley-oop and threw it over the backboard. Here’s the full play. He’s still an electric player, but he might be better suited to a smaller role on the bench as the prototypical energy guy. He just needs an opportunity to get out and attack the glass, and it’s tougher to do that with another big man int the middle. A role on the bench where he gets a few minutes as the center in super smallball lineups could provide that.

Mar 19, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis prior to the game against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

NBA Awards Built on a Strange Bed of Fallacies

Over the years, the unwritten rules for the NBA awards have coalesced into a number of rule of thumbs as well as a few strict criteria. The most common one is that an MVP has to come from a winning team, and preferably a great one. But the frustrating part is that the rules aren’t applied consistently. For instance, Anthony Davis is written off despite crazy numbers because his team isn’t very good; Westbrook is lauded for propping up failing cast with crazy numbers. Davis has actually played more minutes too, so that’s not an excuse. I’m not trying to argue that Anthony Davis is indeed the MVP, but he should definitely be in the conversation because at a surface level his indicators (i.e.. a high-scoring, shot-blocking, no-mistake big man who’s playing like a cousin of David Robinson) suggest that much. Yet he doesn’t have a good story, and the recency bias favors Westbrook. I’d also like to point out that refusing to vote for an MVP on a 40 to 45 win team makes no sense — what, single players are worth 50 wins? You can still have the most value and play for a team with a 0.500 record.

Then there’s the award we hand out to rookies, which in this one-and-done era matters a lot less than it used to. (Part of the problem here is that the NBA has no strong development system. The D-league is not used or prioritized properly, and the NCAA is not a real development system. Repeat that, Adam Silver: the NCAA is not a real development system!) This award is really just about who can get the minutes to throw up the most points, assists, and rebounds. Perception also has a lot to do with it, and lo and behold, we already have a lock because there’s only one rookie who’s played major minutes and he came into the league with a lot of hype: it’s Wiggins and there’s no discussion, even though there should be. I really don’t understand why people have thrown around the label “star” already for this season and are convinced he’s the Rookie of the Year and there’s no contest because he’s not doing anything special: right now, he’s averaging fewer than 16 points per game on weak efficiency without any special playmaking skills. He’s also not quite a special defender yet, and he’s probably eclipsed right now by rookies Noel, Payton, Smart, and maybe a couple others. This isn’t like Chris Paul coming in and having one of the greatest rookie point guard seasons ever or Blake Griffin averaging a 20 and 10 right away — Wiggins isn’t doing much.

The point is that there should be some real conversation and we shouldn’t be locked into these old rules that aren’t official or relevant.His huge lead in minutes shouldn’t matter if he’s not producing a lot, and I think most teams would be helped more by, say, Mirotic playing 20 minutes per game than Wiggins at 35.  Plus, Nerlens Noel is having a borderline historic season and already looks like a legitimately elite defender. I know we already penciled in Wiggins a couple years ago when he had the hype in high school, but it shouldn’t work that way. Awards like the one for defense can be tough enough to gauge accurately; we don’t need to obfuscate the easy ones.

Mar 22, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; The Atlanta Hawks bench shown late in the game against the San Antonio Spurs during the second half at Philips Arena. The Spurs defeated the Hawks 114-95. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta: Clipped Wings or Just a Minor Slump?

The Hawks have been in a mini-tailspin lately, and I’m not entirely sure how serious it is. The injuries aren’t the main culprit because they had their starting lineup intact on Sunday and got dismantled by the Spurs. Of course, this schedule has been a bit weird for them lately as they’ve either rested some of their best guys versus a weak team or were knocked down by another strong team, including the never-say-die Thunder. Then there’s the good old-fashioned regression to the mean effect, as it may have been unlikely they were this good (I don’t think their defense is as good as the numbers have stated, for once.)

The recent Spurs game was a nice little exercise in how to guard the Hawks. Going to the video here, the Spurs defended them well by having Duncan hang back closer to the rim. (You want him close to the rim for plays like this and this;  he’s still a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate even nearing age 40.) Although the Hawks are known for their passing and three-point shooting, all-star Horford is still not a three-point bomber, and teams will find it advantageous to give up a midrange jumper for him or a mismatch on the perimeter to stop other plays. In this video, Duncan switches to stop a drive and a smaller guy is left to guard Horford from 20 feet; Horford meekly throws up a shot and misses. Pero Antic is their behind-the-arc center, but he’s not a great threat and the Spurs didn’t give him a lot of attention, which results in plays like this where Duncan drops back in a pick-and-roll with Antic, stops the penetration, and it leads to an awkward midrange shot from Millsap. They even use Brand sometimes, and he has a shorter range than Brand. It’ll be fascinating to see how the smart defensive teams play the Hawks come playoff time.

Mar 8, 2015; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Charlotte Hornets forward Cody Zeller (40) moves the ball defended by Detroit Pistons forward Greg Monroe (10) in the first quarter at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Cody Zeller

The Bobcats have been trying to claw their way into the playoffs, but they’ve had a recent swoon that’s stopped them from gaining any foothold. Michael-Kidd Gilchrist is getting more attention now for helping their defense, and rightfully so, but Cody Zeller also has surprisingly good defensive stats via a few different metrics and, of course, he’s missed a lot of time during their recent swoon. Although he’s athletic, he has the notorious T-rex arms, as his wingspan is actually the same as his height without shoes — that’s rare in the NBA. But they defend well when he’s on the court, and he’s a useful enough offensive player that he’s an intriguing player.

I wouldn’t suggest that Zeller is one of the best defenders in the league, as RPM does, but his athleticism and energy do have value. Let’s go to the video clips: he had a couple nice blocked shots in a recent against versus Washington where he first blocks Gortat at the rim on a help defense play and then shortly thereafter runs with Bradley Beal on a fast break and stuffs him right at the rim. He’s an aggressive hedger who often leaves his man to rush a ballhandler and then sprints back. But this can get him into trouble, like when he helps off of Patterson and gives up a shot inside, or when he helps defend the ballhandler near the halfcourt line with a few seconds left in the half, which, of course, leads to a dunk. But he’s a pretty solid defender overall who has the quickness to stay in front of players and challenge at the rim.

Offensively, Cody Zeller is a fairly well-rounded player who is not exceptional in any area except for his vertical. He takes a lot of long jumpers, but his percentages so far in his career aren’t great. If you take your eye off him, however, he can cut hard to the rim where he uses his quickness and leaping ability to convert dunks over people. From his game last week, here’s a nice possession from Zeller where he sets a good screen in semi-transition, gets the ball on the perimeter, drives, and throws a nifty little pass to Biyombo for a layup. He has a similar play later on, getting an assist while setting a screen for an open three-pointer. There’s a lot of discussion about the NBA being about quick guards and outside shots, but the pick-and-roll is the league’s most popular play and setting picks/screens is still an undervalued skill.

Mar 22, 2015; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Miami Heat guard Goran Dragic (7) brings the ball up the court against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Goran Dragic: Pace Booster

One of the best effects from trading for Dragic is that he will push the pace aggressively and due to his uncanny ability to finish around the rim he’s a lethal threat in transition. Miami went from the team with the fewest possessions per game, playing at a snail’s pace in relative terms, to one that’s near average: they had 88.6 possessions per game before the all-star break and 93.5 afterwards, which is when, naturally, they acquired the dragon. As soon as he grabs a pass or a rebound, he jets upcourt quickly, like in this video where he splits a group of players who fought to the rebound by throwing the ball ahead and chasing after it; then he sprints down the court at full speed and makes a deceptively tough layup after a Eurostep, which draws contact for an And-1. This trade made the eastern conference playoffs a lot more interesting and a lot more watchable.

Mar 11, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Kyle Korver (26) reacts during the first half against the Denver Nuggets at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Best Shooters: An Advanced Method

In selecting the best shooters, we fall back on methods like best percentage from specific zones, but we fail to account for the difficulty of the shot (e.g. how far away the defender is.) With a wealth of public SportVU data, there’s a better method here, and it’s something I’ve tackled before.

Here’s the basic setup: I found the best way to model shooting is with a tweaked logistic function where the output can range from zero to the maximum possible field-goal percentage. Essentially, that maximum is when a defender is completely open. The only variables I’m using are shot distance, defender distance, whether it’s a catch-and-shoot attempt or not, and a set of variable for the highest volume jump shooters. The only shots I’m looking at are between 10 and 30 feet, and I’ve thrown out shots with two or fewer seconds on the shot clock and miscoded three-pointers where the distance is less than 21.5 feet. Then with the help of R and its “nls” function, I can calculate adjusted field-goal percentages for the 46 players with the most attempts. (I can play around with this given a better method, but for now that’s what my computer can handle, plus I’d rather have a shorter list so I have enough shot attempts for each player analyzed.)

Thus, what I have is a list of adjusted shooting percentages from 10 to 30 feet for a number of the highest volume jump shooters. It’s a new way to rank shooters, putting those who take shots with a defender a few feet away on an even playing field with those who take contested shots.

The best shooter using the 2015 regular season data is — surprise, surprise — Kyle Korver, who is expected to make 18% more of his jump shots than the NBA baseline average. It’s not really close either. Chris Paul might be a surprise for someone who didn’t notice his midrange dominance, plus his three-point shot has been pretty good. Redick ranking second means two Clippers make up the top three, but the team does lead the league in offensive efficiency right now. Irving actually edges out Curry and Thompson; he’s made quite a few amazing shots off the dribble, which is a staple of Curry’s.

As you might have noticed, guys who take a bevy of contested shots can do very well in this ranking. They’re getting credit due to the difficulty level of taking a shot with a defender nearby. However, if you’re a poor shooter regardless of how open you are, you’ll end up at the bottom of the list: Wall has improved his shot but is still no marksman, Ariza has seen his percentages plummet even when he’s open, and Westbrook looks superhuman because of his frantic drives to the basket, not his jumper. Finally, DeMar DeRozan is branded with the label of “worst high volume jump shooter” even though he’s given credit for taking well-defended shots. Remember, the Raptors did quite well on offense without him during his recovery period.

This SportVU data is still filled with errors, but it’s still potent enough to produce interesting datasets as long as you’re creative. There are still a few games left, but right now Korver, by this one method, is the best shooter in the league, and it’s a statement that’s a bit more sophisticated than one based on simple round numbers.