Fantasy Baseball: Is Madison Bumgarner Overrated?

Madison Bumgarner‘s playoff performance during the San Francisco Giants‘ World Series run was quite possibly the best of all time. But will MadBum’s untouchable statistics continue in 2015? He’s certainly being drafted that way; FantasySP has his ADP at 33.06, a third rounder who is being picked sixth among starting pitchers.

This suggests that drafters believe he can be not only their number one starter, but the number one starting pitcher in fantasy. While I can’t disagree with his potential, some past and current concerns suggests that the price paid for him might be too high.

Mar 22, 2015; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner (40) pitches against the Los Angeles Angels at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

The Past

Bumgarner clearly has what it takes to be one of the top aces in the Majors. This will be his seventh professional year and fifth one as a permanent part of the rotation, and he hasn’t experienced any major injuries, so his health shouldn’t be a concern. And while he doesn’t have blazing speed on his fastball, his control and deadly cutter allow him to keep his walks and runs low in nearly every appearance.

Last year, Bumgarner had a career best in wins (16) and strikeouts (219), ranking in the top 10 among qualified pitchers in both categories. His WHIP ranked 13^th and ERA was only 21^st in the league, not high enough for someone you are choosing so high in a draft. To MadBum’s credit, these two stats have remained steadily low over the years (his best year in both categories were actually 2013), so you know it won’t dip much lower. Considering his consistency and age, Bumgarner could be in store for a year for the ages. However, pitchers don’t pitch in a vacuum, and his environment could make repeating such excellence very difficult.

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The Present

If MadBum regresses this year, it probably won’t be his own fault. Instead, the offense could lead to weak run support that dooms should-be wins. Pablo Sandoval and Mike Morse, two important players on offense last year, are gone, and there’s no replacement of equal value on the roster right now. The rest of the World Series team is mostly intact, and Angel Pagan should come back to the lineup and help make up for some of the loss at other positions.

I would be remiss to not mention the superstitious aspect of my opinion. As a Giants fan myself, I am all too aware of the even-year trend. The Giants have won the World Series in 2010, 2012, and 2014. But in 2009, 2011, and 2013? They didn’t even make the playoffs. MadBum predictably had his worse win-loss percentages during these years, even though his ERA and WHIP didn’t suggest a drop off in performance.

So what is in store for Madison Bumgarner in 2015? My guess would be stagnation; his statistics aren’t going to take a leap, and he won’t look like the lights-out ace of the World Series during every start, but he will be a solid top-10 pitcher. The Giants lost a few bats and the other teams in the division have improved, and opposing batters may find some extra motivation in trying to outmatch the hero of last season. I’d project his stats in all of the major categories to dip slightly, especially wins. However, you also can rest assured that he won’t be a total disaster.

You can feel content with Bumgarner as your top ace in fantasy in any league format, but I may be willing to pass up his high expectations for guys like David Price of the Tigers, Johnny Cueto of the Reds, and Jordan Zimmerman of the Nationals a little later on in the draft.

Next: Preseason Top Ten: Outfielders

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