Fantasy Baseball: 2015 San Diego Padres Fantasy Outlook

Mar 24, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; San Diego Padres outfielder Justin Upton (10) after hitting a home run during a spring training game against the Seattle Mariners at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports

Spring Training is in full swing (pun intended), and the regular season is right around the corner. That means that our fantasy drafts are as well.

2015 San Diego Padres Projected Starting Lineup:

C: Derek Norris (.270, 10HR, 55RBI, 2SB with Oakland)
1B: Yonder Alonso (.240, 7HR, 27 RBI, 6SB in 84 games)
2B: Jedd Gyorko (.210, 10HR, 51RBI, 3SB)
SS: Alexi Amarista (.239, 5HR, 40RBI, 12SB)
3B: Will Middlebrooks (.191, 2HR, 19RBI, 1 SB in 63 games with Boston)
LF: Justin Upton (.270, 29HR 102RBI, 8SB with Atlanta)
CF: Wil Myers (.222, 6HR, 35RBI, 6SB in 87 games with Tampa)
RF: Matt Kemp (.287, 25HR, 89RBI, 8SB with Dodgers)

Yasmani Grandal was sent to the Dodgers in the deal for Kemp. His replacement is Derek Norris, who was mostly in a platoon with Stephen Vogt in Oakland last year. He is more known for his bat, which is just fine for us fantasy players. He hits for a decent average and has good power. If you decide to wait on a catcher, he is a solid add later in your standard league draft.

It’s hard to believe that some people actually thought that Alonso would supplant Joey Votto in Cincinnati. He still has really good power, but it has never materialized in the major leagues. He still does not have a double digit home run season to his credit. He is useful in leagues of 16 or more teams because he should help your batting average. Even after last year’s ugly .240, he is still a career .271 hitter in the majors.

Gyorko had an awful sophomore season at the plate after clubbing 23 homers in his rookie year. His defense kept him in the lineup, so the Padres just lived with his offensive struggles. He was a career .320 hitter in the minors, so there is reason to believe that he can carry a decent average in the majors. Those of you in standard leagues should keep an eye on him to see if his hot spring carries over. He can be an asset in all fantasy formats if he hits for a decent average.

Amarista has performed well enough this spring to take the shortstop job away from Clint Barmes. Amarista is useful in deeper leagues because he has good speed. Those of you in leagues where you have only three bench slots might want to take a look at him as well. He is eligible at 2B, SS, 3B, and OF. He won’t provide you much other than speed, but he could be a valuable asset for plugging injury holes.

If Amarista sticks at SS, that likely means that the utility role will go to Cory Spangenberg. Depending on how many at bats he gets, he could help you out in deeper leagues.

Middlebrooks had an abysmal season in Boston last year that saw him ultimately lose his job to Brock Holt. Middlebrooks was the next big thing in Beantown in 2012 when he hit .288 with 15 homers as a rookie. He has regressed since. The Padres traded Ryan Hanigan for him, so this is a low-risk proposition for the Padres. Middlebrooks has looked reborn this spring, so there is cautious optimism that he can rebound. Those of you in deep leagues can buy in late in your drafts. Those in shallower league should take a wait and see approach.

If Middlebrooks can’t hold the job, the Padres still have Yangervis Solarte. Remember him? He burst on the scene with the Yankees last year, then was traded to San Diego. He finished his rookie campaign with a .260 average, ten homers, and 48 RBI. He is a suitable replacement, and can be an asset in deep leagues if he takes the job, or gets enough at bats in a utility role.

The Padres completely rebuilt their outfield, which is bad news for Will Venable, Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin, and top prospect Rymer Liriano. Venable, Quentin and Maybin were the starting outfield last year. This year none of them are likely to get enough at bats to be fantasy relevant. What the Padres do have is a one of the best benches around in case injuries hit, and for trade bait.

Upton likely wont hit 30 homers in this park, but with the lineup around him, there is no reason that he can’t drive in 100 runs again. He is not stealing bases like he did early on in his career, which limits his fantasy value a little, but he is still worthy of a late third or early fourth round pick.

Kemp quietly had a healthy and productive season last year. He may never get back to MVP form, and he may never steal the bases that he used to, but he can still be a fantasy asset. He has always hit well, and he has good power. I am high on Kemp for this year. If he is still around in the fourth round, he is mine!

Myers is another guy that had a horrendous sophomore slump last year. He turned heads when he hit 37 homers in the minors in 2012. That power has yet to translate to the majors, but he just turned 24. There is plenty of time for him to develop. I expect Myers to rebound nicely in this lineup. Part of the reason he struggled so badly in Tampa last year was the lack of quality players around him. Myers is worth a late round pick in standard leagues, and has the potential to pay off big.

Next: How Does The Rotation Look?

Mar 12, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher James Shields (33) throws in the first inning during a spring training game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

2015 San Diego Padres Projected Pitching Rotation:

James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA, 180K with Kansas City)
Andrew Cashner (5-7, 2.55 ERA, 93K in 19 starts)
Tyson Ross (13-14, 2.81 ERA, 195K)
Ian Kennedy (13-13. 3.63 ERA, 207K)
Brandon Morrow (1-3, 5.67 ERA, 30K in six starts with Toronto)
Odrisamer Despaigne (4-7, 3.36 ERA, 65K)
Joaquin Benoit (4-2, 1.49 ERA, 11/12 saves, 64K)

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The Padres didn’t limit their spending to the offense. They spent big to bring James Shields to Petco Park, and it should pay dividends for both parties. Shields is a consistent workhorse who is capable of striking out 200 batters. He might even be able to get that ERA back under 3 in San Diego. He has been going in the sixth or seventh round, and could be an absolute steal there.

Cashner was much better than his record indicated. If he could stay healthy for an entire season, he can really help fantasy owners. He is not the elite strikeout guy that he was out of the bullpen earlier in his career, but that under 3 ERA is sustainable. He still strikes out enough batters and has a low enough WHIP to be an asset to the middle of your fantasy rotation.

Ross was stellar in his first full season in the rotation last year. He struck out a better per inning and posted an impressive ERA. The wins are sure to come this year in a much improved lineup. He has shown no signs of slowing down this spring, and is a steal in the ninth round, where his ADP has him.

Kennedy struck out more than a batter per inning last year. It is rare for a number four starter to rack up that many strikeouts. He does slip in drafts because he doesn’t have a great ERA or WHIP, but if you find yourself needing strikeouts later on in the draft, Kennedy is your man. He usually won’t hurt you too badly, though he is prone to the occasional meltdown.

Morrow is one of those guys that has never lived up to his potential. He has a better chance of doing it in San Diego than the AL East, but he is still best avoided in all leagues until he proves he can post an ERA on the right side of 4. He hasn’t yet.

Despiagne has out-performed Morrow this spring, but has not taken the fifth starter job yet. He was useful in deep leagues last year because of his good ERA, but he doesn’t produce enough strikeouts to be fantasy relevant anywhere else.

It was Casey Kelly, not Anthony Rizzo, who was regarded as the prize in the return for Adrian Gonzalez in 2010. Injuries have derailed Kelly, but he is still one of the best pitching prospects for the Padres, and the most ready for the major leagues. He was efficient in his first game action in ten months following Tommy John surgery, and with a good month in the minors, could claim the fifth starter spot. If he does, you deep leaguers should take notice. He has great potential and could really help your team.

Benoit pitched well as the closer after Huston Street was traded to the Angels. He could be a sneaky pick in the middle tier of closers because he will get a lot more chances this year. He also strikes out more than a batter per inning, and had a microscopic 0.77 WHIP last year. If he is still around after the tenth round, take him.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR as our team by team fantasy previews continue!

Next: Is Madison Bumgarner Being Overvalued In Drafts?

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