NC Power Rankings: A Final Look To the Playoffs

Apr 5, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) reacts prior to the game against the Chicago Bulls at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome, sadly, to the last edition of Power Rankings for the season here on Nylon Calculus. We’re continuing the theme from last week, wherein I completely eschew the methodology I’ve used before, and pursue a different route that ties up the season a bit more neatly. Where last week, we summarized the power rankings from the rest of the year, this week we’ll be looking ahead.

For this week’s power rankings, I built the meat of the model that I’ll use to predict playoff outcomes, and the results compose the rankings you’ll see. The goal of the model was to find the probability of each team beating an average team, and from that point, the probability of each team beating each other team can be easily found.

For the most part, that average win probability was found by taking the win percentage that you can derive from the point differential and weighting it for the team’s actual win percentage (by about a 2 to 1 ratio). That value was then adjusted for each team’s schedule (in a similar manner to the weights on basketball-reference’s SRS), and then adjusted again, slightly, for the team’s improvement from the first half of the season to the second half and then for injury or a return from injury, as with Serge Ibaka and Paul George. Those adjustments were concurrent with both the injured player’s WARs, the sample size of those player’s games and potential impact, the sample size of the season chunks being improved upon, and the small degree to which that improvement matters in the playoffs.[1. Adjusting the rankings this way is risky, I realize, given that the beginning of the season is actually more highly correlated with success than the end of the season, but I have a few rationales for this adjustment and making the adjustment the way I did: first, the way I set up the NetRating value I did (very) slightly bias the beginning of the season. Second, the adjustment as it’s made is so small that it won’t meaningfully hurt a team like the Warriors or the Hawks who just trailed off in the second half of the season because they were coasting. Finally, there a bunch of teams like the Mavericks, Cavaliers, Spurs, and Blazers whose improvement or dropoff since the second half of the season has been indicative of a fundamental change in the team, be it a big trade, a superteam gelling, injuries, etc. Not accounting for those teams seems to me as fundamental a mistake as overvaluing recency, so, I have weighted this shifts very very lightly, and accordingly.]

Below is the results of the win probability analysis, ranked by the average win probability.

The Top Ten

1. Golden State Warriors: The championship will be the Dubs’ to lose, but their path being significantly harder than the Cavaliers’ (or the Hawks’ for that matter) will make a big difference. The Warriors are looking at something like a 78% chance of winning a first round series, but followed by barely 70% and then barely 60% to get to the finals. Their path is a serious bummer, they’ve earned the right to relax a little bit, but they won’t get that chance.
2. San Antonio Spurs: Remember how we spent the whole first half of the season debating whether or not the Spurs were done? Yeah, that’s not happening. Despite the Warriors’ sheer dominance this whole season, the Spurs have creeped up, waiting to take the Warriors’ throne and leap back into the Finals for a third straight year. The Spurs are cruel and unfeeling and they laugh at your condescension.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers: Another team that people wrote off far too early, the Cavaliers have quietly been performing better than the Warriors since the All-Star break. That doesn’t necessarily mean anything, but the Cavs don’t even run into a real threat in the Playoffs till they hit the Hawks, and even then they should be pretty well favored. The East is the Cavs’ to lose.
4. Los Angeles Clippers: The odds of the Clippers winning it all are low, but there’s some interesting “2011 Mavericks” potential here. A great team, underrated all season because they’re below whatever expectations are out there despite some incredible performances and injuries, and a superstar that can take over for a series in Chris Paul. The lack of real Tyson Chandler figure and their horrific bench limits them from doing anything huge, but you never know.
5. Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks are very, very good, and that they slipped a bit to 5th in these rankings should not be a knock on how incredible the Hawks have been this season. If it turns out the Hawks’ recent slumping has been more or less them coasting to the playoffs, watch out. A Cavaliers-Hawks series will destroy the teams’ respective cities.
6. Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizz have slumped lately, but it hasn’t been as awful as Grizzlies fans want to make out, and this is a team that has lit the league on fire when healthy. It’s hard to know what Grizzlies team you’re going to get on a night-to-night basis, but if you’re looking for a dark horse, this is the team.
7. Houston Rockets: It feels like the Rockets have been overachieving all year, but at this point, doubt them (or, doubt James Harden) at your own peril. Somehow, trial after trial, the Rockets come back and handle it with (relative) poise. Who knows what their ceiling is if they can get Dwight Howard back for a playoff run?
8. Portland Trailblazers: The Blazers are the first of the Western “weak links,” but this is another team that it seems like a cop out to discount. They’ve been very good, at worst, despite a slew of injuries and a relatively hard schedule. They’re somewhat boring sometimes — the same old same old — but don’t let that trick you into thinking this is a team you “want” to play. You don’t want to play Portland. But if you have to, you might be ok with it, which is better than can be said for the other teams.
9. Utah Jazz: The only non playoff team in the top 10. Of course. The Jazz continue to be a top 5 team since the All-Star break behind a record setting defense if they could keep it up for the whole year. Their being this good doesn’t have any long term bearing, but holy cow, that they managed to pull this high is incredible.
10. Chicago Bulls: This is perhaps the only team that I don’t have a handle on. Could they challenge a good team in the playoffs, could they contend for the East, are they gonna get obliterated early? The math says…”Maybe.” To all of it. So helpful.

Other Teams of Note

• New Orleans Pelicans: The Pelicans are extremely unlikely to make the playoffs this season, but they’d probably fare better than a Thunder team with a lone Russell Westbrook. Thems the shakes in the Western Conference, sadly, but I know a lot of us are rooting for that 5% chance to pull through. Nothing says “playoff fun” like Anthony Davis vs Stephen Curry.
• Oklahoma City Thunder: Russell Westbrook might be great, but if they face the Warriors it’s hard to imagine him having any room to breath. It’s sad, but a Thunder series without Ibaka and Durant is pretty much a done deal. Bummer.
• Indiana Pacers: If Paul George is who everyone remembers he is, and if he fits seamlessly back into the lineup, this could be a seriously threatening team to Atlanta in the first round, and the model can’t entirely capture that without a bit more brute force. If there’s any team in the East that’s unexpectedly scary though, it’s the Pacers.
• Toronto Raptors: The Raptors are the best of the Eastern mire, but as of right now the Raptors-Wizards first round series is a sad bunching of teams who had so much promise who ended up being so completely and totally inconsequential. It’s as much a concentration of nihilism as basketball can get: what’s the point, when you’re just going to get obliterated by Atlanta in the second round?
• Dallas Mavericks: The Mavericks are the team that the West really wants. The combination of Dirk Nowitzki and Rick Carlisle makes the Mavericks more threatening than a lot of the usual data might suggest, and I’m sure the Spurs remember their first round tussle last year, but who in the West is really scared of this team? I can’t imagine anyone, honestly.
• Washington Wizards: The Wizards are a bummer. They were good once upon a time, but for the life of me I can’t remember how or why. They’ll probably be competitive with the Raptors in the first round, but, like…who really cares?
• Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks might be the only bigger bummer than the Wizards. Earlier in the season I would have taken the Bucks over the Raptors in a 3-6 series back when the Raptors were good, probably, but since the All-Star break the Bucks have collapsed because Michael Carter-Williams just isn’t very good. They might push Chicago for a few games if we get “bad Bulls” but otherwise, let’s just wait and get excited about next year.
• Boston Celtics: The Celts can be fun, sometimes, but that 30% three-point clanker Jae Crowder has been a revelation to Celts fans maybe should temper some expectations. They’re on the way to the 8th seed right now, but you have to wonder what for, on a team that could desperate use the borderline top 10 pick it would be headed for if they could only hit the lottery.
• Miami Heat: This is a team that could be so, so, so scary…if they weren’t so hurt that Michael Beasley was playing center. They might make it into the 8th seed, but it’s the same deal with everyone else: what for?
• Brooklyn Nets: If the Nets make the playoffs (AND THEY’RE IN THE 7TH SEED WITH ONLY LIKE 7 GAMES LEFT) I’m gonna be completely freaking done. We can’t let this happen. We just can’t. I know Brook Lopez has been great, I don’t care. Make it go away.