Buy or Sell: Week 1

Apr 6, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Miguel Castro (51) delivers a pitch during the ninth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Toronto Blue Jays won 6-1. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Every week, some unknown commodity comes out of the woodwork and sets the fantasy world on fire. He could be this year’s Jose Bautista. He could also be this year’s Melvin Upton. Above all, it’s important not to overreact to a one week sample, but sometimes a risky pickup can pay huge dividends. Here are five players you should buy, and five you should sell after Week 1.

BUY
Devon Travis: With the way the Jays are swinging the bat coming out of the gates, the bottom of the order isn’t a death sentence for Travis’ counting stats. He hit for consistent average in the Minors, and has the potential to give you 10/20 production at second base, which is a valuable play even in shallow mixed leagues.

Mike Moustakas: With yet another torrid Spring Training in the books, its time to forgive and forget his crimes against our batting averages in years past and buy into Moose’s power. He showed signs of improved patience in last year’s playoffs, and has picked up where he left off with a strong first week.

Kevin Kiermaier: While the early power outburst is likely a mirage going forward, Kiermaier will be getting regular at bats in the heart of the Rays’ order. He has sneaky speed, and his multi-category contributions make him an under-appreciated fantasy asset.

Drew Pomeranz: Coming up in the Rockies organization is a tough break for any young pitcher, and Pomeranz struggled mightily in Coors’ thin air despite his electric stuff. He posted a 2.35 ERA over 68 innings after being traded to Oakland last season, and he blanked the potent Mariners offense in his first start of the season. I’m predicting a huge year from Pomeranz, and he’s likely available on the wire if you’re in need of a fourth or fifth starter.

Miguel Castro: The closer carousel is still spinning in Toronto, but Castro has the raw stuff to run away with the job, and could post over 30 saves this season. Noted Blue Jays blogger Andrew Stoeten posted a picture of Castro’s absurd grip on Thursday, and it was enough to send me running to the wire to pick this guy up.

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SELL

Anthony Gose: Small sample size. That’s all I have to say about Gose’s start to the season, and I know it’s a mirage because I’ve seen it all before. Last year, he hit a strong .295/.380 in the month of May after being called up by the Jays, but quickly turned into an out machine after his BABIP regressed and he couldn’t draw a walk to save his life. He’ll get you steals and runs, but his current .667 BABIP is not sustainable.

Travis Snider: After bouncing between the Minors and the Majors for the better part of nine years, Snider seemed to finally put it all together with the Pirates last year, clubbing 13 home runs with a respectable average over 140 games. He’s started the season on a tear, but over the course of 162 games he still projects to be roughly replacement level, which isn’t the type of production you want from an outfielder.

Adam Lind: This one’s less of a sell than a don’t buy. Unless you’re in a deep NL-only league and are fine with platooning Lind when he inevitably sits against lefties, he’s not worth the pickup. Lind will rake against righties, but the lack of playing time—especially in the milquetoast Brewers lineup—is a major concern.

Brandon Morrow: I have a long and complicated history with Brandon Morrow, but the bottom line is trust issues. He’s always had a good fastball and a devastating slider, but he has never been able to stay healthy for a full season and there’s no reason to think he will stay off the DL in San Diego. Ignore his shutout against the Giants, cross his name off of your lists, and breath a deep sigh of relief.

Brett Cecil: His shoulder is still barking after a shaky spring, and while Gibbons clearly has a lot of faith in Cecil, he won’t be seeing many save situations in Toronto. He’s still a valuable reliever to serve as a handcuff if the inexperienced Castro falls apart, but he’s no longer a reliable source of saves.