Is it time for the Twins to trade Joe Mauer?

Joe Mauer is a hometown hero, but is it time for Minnesota to start exploring trades?

File this under “hindsight is 20/20:” Joe Mauer’s mega-extension with the Minnesota Twins was a mistake for the team.

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Yes, Mauer is that rare hometown hero who comes to prominence with his local team, and that may have influenced the Twins’ decision to extend him for whatever it took (that, and the imminent opening of their new stadium). But the 2010 extension of Mauer for $184 million through 2018 wasn’t worth it; the team simply isn’t getting a good enough return to justify such a mammoth investment, particularly for a small-market team. When he signed the extension, Mauer was an exceptional catcher; now, he’s a light-hitting first baseman who gets hurt a lot.

The extension runs through 2018, so it will be a while before the Twins can move on from what has become an albatross of a contract. Unless they trade him. (Cue shocked gasps).

No, Twins’ fans probably aren’t into the idea of trading their hometown hero. But should they be? Let’s take a look at the pros and cons of a hypothetical Mauer trade.

Pros:

1. They could get out of the contract while Mauer still has some value

Let me throw you a scenario here. I have a laptop. It’s a few years old, and it has its fair share of problems: the mouse is broken, and it has to be plugged in all the time because the battery doesn’t charge anymore. Now, this laptop still has value to me, but I know that one day it will break, it will be worth nothing, and I’ll have to buy a new one. So with that knowledge, shouldn’t I just sell it now, and get what I can for it while it still has some value?

That’s the situation the Twins are in with Mauer. The move from catcher to first base has dimmed Mauer’s star significantly. But we’re still not too far removed from the 32-year-old former MVP turning in some truly great seasons; his 2012 was worth 4.5 WAR (wins above replacement) and 2013 worth 5.2, according to FanGraphs. That puts him in the top 30 players in all of baseball for both those seasons. His 2014, on the other hand, was worth just 1.7 WAR. Teams can look past one less-than-great season, but probably not two, which means the Twins should strike while the iron is hot. This may be the last time they can find a trade partner who envisions adding the old, MVP-caliber Mauer, rather than what he is now.

2. Mauer could help restock an already strong farm system

The Twins are not to be competitive any time soon, and Mauer is a win-now kind of player, especially on his current deal. Why not see if you can get some players who will be a part of the next playoff team in Minnesota instead? If there’s one thing this team needs, it’s pitching; ask anyone who watched Ricky Nolasco or Kevin Correia take the hill the last few years. Mauer could fetch them in trade the one thing they so desperately need.

3. The Twins could use the salary relief

They may be forced to kick in some money in any trade, but moving their $23 million-a-year first baseman would provide a huge salary relief to a franchise that has historically ranked near the bottom of the league in payroll, with the exception of a few years after Target Field opened in 2010. Moving Mauer could give them extra money for starting pitchers, relievers; maybe even a new first baseman who can provide similar production at a fraction of the cost.

4. Mauer is often injured

It’s one thing to devote a huge salary to a player who’s good and not great; it’s another to devote it to a player who’s contributing nothing. In Mauer’s 10-year career, he has played 135 games or more just four times. He’s had knee surgeries, concussions; plus, the general wear and tear of being a catcher. Players with an established injury history usually tend to continue those trends, and the Twins don’t want to be paying big money to a player who won’t even be on the field.

Cons:

1. Mauer could return to dominance

The worst possible outcome for the Twins is trading Mauer, only to have him revert to pre-2014 form. The reason they should trade him now is the same reason they might regret it: his dominant years aren’t too far in the rearview mirror, and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see Mauer bounce back and hit like he used to.

2. The trade would upset the fans

The Twins have been firmly ensconced in last place in the AL Central for years now, with no expectation that things will change this year unless something dreadful happens to the Tigers or Royals. But even losing teams need to draw fans to the ballpark, and Mauer remains the Twins’ biggest draw: a hometown hero and former MVP who decided to sign a long-term deal while his contemporaries, such as Johan Santana, fled for bigger markets. A trade could turn the Twins into one of the least recognizable teams in the league from a fan perspective, and that could hurt them at the box office.

So what should Minnesota do? My advice: make the trade. A small-market team like the Twins can’t afford to have an albatross like this on the payroll the way, say, the Angels can with Albert Pujols. And the fans will be upset, but they’ll forget all about this Mauer guy once Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are crushing baseballs in 2016. Mauer isn’t likely to be a big part of the next successful Twins team anyway; they might as well get something for him while they can.

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