Dynasty League Rookie Prospect: Oregon QB Marcus Mariota

All offseason I have been pounding wide receiver and running back prospects down your throats. This time I’m going a little bit off course and talk about my first non-wide receiver/running back. The quarterback class is a two man race this year between Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston, and there’s a lot of debate on which one will be better long term. Both players’ stocks have been up and down like a roller coaster. Like every other prospect, the key is to get as much information as possible to make an analytical decision when it’s your turn to make a selection in your rookie draft.

Jan 12, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) runs the ball against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2015 CFP National Championship Game at AT&T Stadium. Ohio State won 42-20. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

College Production

During his freshman season (age 19) Mariota passed for 2,677 yards 32 TDs and 6 INTs. Mariota improved during his sophomore season (age 20) by passing for 3,665 yards 31 TDs and 4 INTs. Mariota had a superb junior season (age 21) by passing for 4,454 yards 42 TDs and 4 INTs. One thing to note about Mariota’s college production is that he improved by a considerable amount every season.

Player Metrics

HT	WT	Hand Size
6’4	222	9 7/8

Physical metrics like 40-time and 3-cone aren’t as important to quarterbacks as they are to running backs and wide receivers. Height and weight are very important though. Mariota has the height at 6’4″ to have clear vision behind his offensive line, and is less likely to have ball swatted down from pass rushers. He weighs 222 pounds, which is good because he has the size to absorb getting hit in the pocket. He has big enough hands where he’s not going to have issues with fumbles and balls slipping out of his hands while attempting passes.

Film Review

Mariota played almost all of his snaps in the shotgun at Oregon. Most of his passes were quick two step reads. Mariota has a strong arm and he is capable of making all the throws on the football field. He has a quick release and he doesn’t have any wasted motion in his throwing mechanics. He is very aware of what is going around him by having a good sense of when to step up in the pocket. Mariota did have a tendency to not find the open receiver while making his reads, and struggled at times if he didn’t have a receiver that wasn’t obviously open. This suggests that it may take Mariota some time to catch up with the speed of the game in the NFL because receivers are not going to be as wide open as they were in college.

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Player Value

Mariota is going to be a first round selection in the NFL Draft. The question is who is going to draft him? There are reports stating that he could be drafted number 1 overall to the Bucs, and there are reports stating that he could free fall to the bottom of round 1. In rookie drafts he’s going to be worth a late-1^st to a mid-2^nd round pick. Mariota is a good quarterback and he’s one of the better QBs to come out in the last few years, but there is a lot great running backs and wide receivers in this draft, and it would be a shame to miss out on one of these talents because you were chasing a positional need in quarterbacks. Quarterback is a position that you can patch up easily on the cheap by selling off 3^rd round rookie picks for guys like Alex Smith. I wouldn’t draft Mariota in the first round because there’s going to be more upside in drafting wide receivers and running backs, however if I’m in need of a QB and he’s there in the mid-2^nd,then sign me up. Once you hit the 2^nd round the odds of a player busting is through the roof, so that makes drafting Mariota very safe. That being said, I like Mariota a lot, but I wouldn’t draft him until the mid-2^nd round of your rookie draft.

Need Help with your dynasty team? Contact me on Twitter @bmatz08 and I will give you the guidance you need to make the best decisions on trades, drafts, and the waiver wire.

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