NC Playoff Previews: Atlanta Hawks and Brooklyn Nets

Apr 4, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) and Brooklyn Nets forward Thaddeus Young (30) fight for a loose ball in the first quarter at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

For each first round series, the staff at Nylon Calculus has put together some visual comparisons of the opposing teams featuring many of the metrics and techniques we’ve been tracking and using all season. This page features charts and visualizations comparing the Atlanta Hawks and Brooklyn Nets.

Series Notes

by Justin Willard – @AcrossTheCourt

I’m using a blend for the team ratings where I take long-term RPM numbers with projected minutes and a team rating system (adjusted net points per possession) where I can gauge the value of Sefolosha. I know people are still wary of the voodoo surrounding RPM, but my simple team rating system has Sefolosha as one of the more valuable players in the league. I think that’s an overstatement, but the Hawks will certainly miss a wing enforcer, especially against a team with Deron Williams and Joe Johnson. The Nets aren’t very good, but you want to keep those two in check. (I’m surprised Sefolosha’s story isn’t getting more coverage because he’s a semi-famous athlete who suffered something that’s awful for anyone to experience, much less someone who was about to gear up for the playoffs.)

The silver lining is that the Hawks have homecourt advantage for a while, and this advantage is actually greater in the playoffs. I don’t understand why that fact is underreported, and why so many people continue to use the standard value you extract from the regular season, but home crowds matter. It’s enough to make this a relatively easy series for a suddenly vulnerable Atlanta team.

Hawks rating without Sefolosha: 2.70

Nets rating with Deron Williams: -1.66

Odds: Hawks 90.4%

(Team ratings are per 100 possessions. The ratings were calculated with ridge regression for better estimates and with one key player in/out of the game. (Playing fewer than 10 minutes counted as being out.) This means every playoff team had two variables. These numbers are used in conjunction with ratings derived from long-term RPM, as seen on fivethirtyeight.com, to calculate the odds.)

Shot Charts

by Austin Clemens – @AustinClemens2

These special editions of Austin’s NBA shot charts show offense by each team over the full season. Like other shot charts they show the volume of shots (dot size) and the FG% of the team from that spot compared to the league average (color – warmer colors are better). As a special feature for these playoff previews, these charts also use SportVU data [is this correct? I always get vantage v sportvu confused] to show how closely shots taken by each team are defended on average. On average, defenders of shots taken near the hoop are about 3 feet away from the offensive player when a shot is taken, whereas defenders of 3-point shots are usually more than 5 feet away from the shooter on average. The large transparent circles behind each dot on the chart have a radius equal to the average distance a defender is from team players when a shot is taken from that particular location. A bigger circle means defenders are farther away and suggests that the offense is generating good looks for its shooters.

Team Offense-Defense Matchups

By Krishna Narsu – @Knarsu3

These charts compare the offensive and defensive efficiency for the two squads over the course of the season. As always, lower efficiency is better for a teams’ defense.

Rotation Comparisons

by Seth Partnow – @SethPartnow & Kevin Ferrigan – @NBACouchSide

Comparisons of regular season production by Daily RAPM Estimate and True Usage components.  

TeamSPACE

by Matt D’Anna — @hoop_nerd

TeamSPACE Hunting Grounds map the clusters of repeated success for a group of players. Generally, there are two themes worth observing in any chart: overlap and size. The degree of overlap can indicate either the beauty of a fine-tuned offensive scheme, or general chaos. The ‘good’ overlap is where multiple players systematically hit from the same areas on the court; Golden State, Atlanta, and San Antonio are great examples. The ‘bad’ overlap is evidenced by mis-mashed swaths of color blending together; Boston, and to a lesser extent Cleveland and Memphis, fit this mold. Second, size matters. Typically the more precise the Hunting Grounds (smaller), the better. This type of precision represents a degree of spatial efficiency, freeing up space for other teammates activity. Notable examples include James Harden and Dirk Nowitzki.

In many ways Brooklyn had a tough season. However, their shooting space is not one of them. This is a big improvement from last year – roster turnover aside, Joe Johnson and Deron Williams operate in much smaller spaces. D-Will is barely present anymore (metaphor?). This is a welcome change, as Brook Lopez has infiltrated more of the midrange beyond the paint. He’s become the main (arguably only) midrange threat.

I used to think the Rockets were one of the most exaggerated charts, but the Hawks may rival them. The midrange is virtually nonexistent, and the parts that are are oh-so-very precise. The 3pt activity is downright amazing – so much so that the overlap seems to indicate a smooth operating offense. The overlap also demonstrates some interchangeability within their lineup. Contrasting this style with the Cavs – aka the Superstar vs. No Superstar narrative – would make for an entertaining Conference Finals.

Offensive Styles

by Ian Levy — @HickoryHigh

These charts represent offensive style, not effectiveness. On each axis, distance from the center represents increasing quantity (or efficiency in the case of shot selection). Read more about how they’re constructed here.

Two very different offensive systems are at work here. The Atlanta Hawks are moving the ball constantly in search of high-quality shots, particularly open three-pointers. The Nets play slower and grind the ball through post-ups and isolations, relying on the individual shot-making abilities of Jarrett Jack, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson to carry their offense as opposed to efficient shot distribution patterns.