NC Playoff Previews: Golden State Warriors and New Orleans Pelicans
Apr 7, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) shoots over New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) during the third quarter of a game at the Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans defeated the Warriors 103-100. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
For each first round series, the staff at Nylon Calculus has put together some visual comparisons of the opposing teams featuring many of the metrics and techniques we’ve been tracking and using all season. This page features charts and visualizations comparing the Golden State Warriors and New Orleans Pelicans.
Series Notes
by Justin Willard – @AcrossTheCourt
(1) Warriors – (8) Pelicans
Warriors rating with Bogut: 11.24
Pelicans rating with Davis: 2.44
Eventually, we got enough people to realize what a special season this is from Golden State – their average margin of victory, even after being adjusted for the schedule, is historically great. Calling them a mere “jump-shooting” team is not just dismissive but it’s outdated. Even the best defenses don’t know how to contain Curry and the Warriors are the league’s best defense. With Bogut, they embarrass teams. The cliché is that jump-shooting teams can’t win, but doesn’t defense win championships? So it’s great to see Anthony Davis in the playoffs, but the analysis here is about whether the series will last four games or five.
Anthony Davis is a fantastic player and a much better scorer at this stage than most people would have guessed, but he’s still got a lot to learn on defense. He nets more blocks and steals than Bogut per minute, but as a defender he’s not as valuable. There are still a lot of nuances he needs to learn, and maybe a better coach could guide him. By the way, if you cite PER, keep in mind that low turnover, low foul rate players often get overrated. There is no player with lower foul/turnover rates with a higher usage rate , and a lot of other guys on that list are outside shooters. As a last interesting note, the Brow’s combination of fouls/turnovers/blocks is basically like prime Ben Wallace and few others. The difference is that Davis scores 24 a game now. Nevertheless, he’ll probably lose in 4 or 5.
Odds: Warriors 96.3%
(Team ratings are per 100 possessions. The ratings were calculated with ridge regression for better estimates and with one key player in/out of the game. (Playing fewer than 10 minutes counted as being out.) This means every playoff team had two variables. These numbers are used in conjunction with ratings derived from long-term RPM, as seen on fivethirtyeight.com, to calculate the odds.)
Shot Charts
by Austin Clemens – @AustinClemens2
These special editions of Austin’s NBA shot charts show offense by each team over the full season. Like other shot charts they show the volume of shots (dot size) and the FG% of the team from that spot compared to the league average (color – warmer colors are better). As a special feature for these playoff previews, these charts also use SportVU data [is this correct? I always get vantage v sportvu confused] to show how closely shots taken by each team are defended on average. On average, defenders of shots taken near the hoop are about 3 feet away from the offensive player when a shot is taken, whereas defenders of 3-point shots are usually more than 5 feet away from the shooter on average. The large transparent circles behind each dot on the chart have a radius equal to the average distance a defender is from team players when a shot is taken from that particular location. A bigger circle means defenders are farther away and suggests that the offense is generating good looks for its shooters.
Team Offense-Defense Matchups
By Krishna Narsu – @Knarsu3
These charts compare the offensive and defensive efficiency for the two squads over the course of the season. As always, lower efficiency is better for a teams’ defense.
Rotation Comparisons
by Seth Partnow – @SethPartnow & Kevin Ferrigan – @NBACouchSide
Comparisons of regular season production by Daily RAPM Estimate and True Usage components.
TeamSPACE
by Matt D’Anna — @hoop_nerd
TeamSPACE Hunting Grounds map the clusters of repeated success for a group of players. Generally, there are two themes worth observing in any chart: overlap and size. The degree of overlap can indicate either the beauty of a fine-tuned offensive scheme, or general chaos. The ‘good’ overlap is where multiple players systematically hit from the same areas on the court; Golden State, Atlanta, and San Antonio are great examples. The ‘bad’ overlap is evidenced by mis-mashed swaths of color blending together; Boston, and to a lesser extent Cleveland and Memphis, fit this mold. Second, size matters. Typically the more precise the Hunting Grounds (smaller), the better. This type of precision represents a degree of spatial efficiency, freeing up space for other teammates activity. Notable examples include James Harden and Dirk Nowitzki.
If the Spurs chart is beautiful, the Warriors chart is dominating. Four players shoot from the same areas. FOUR PLAYERS. A legitimate question that has failed to be answered for most of this season: how do you actually defend this lineup? “Hope they miss” may be the best answer. Just. So. Dominating.
In some ways, I’m pleasantly suprised. I expected much more red (Tyreke Evans) on this chart. Instead, he’s hardly visible. On other ways, I’m let down – specifically with all the cool blue gracing the arc. That’s probably a little too much Eric Gordon. I’d personally prefer a switch to Ryan Anderson. Of course this is all secondary to Anthony Davis, who has a spatial presence resembling Dirk and LaMarcus (good company). With Asik never shooting more than 1 step away from the rim (literally), the only real challenge to complete midrange space-hogging from Davis (which would be a great thing!), is Jrue Holiday. The overlap is minor though.
Offensive Styles
by Ian Levy — @HickoryHigh
These charts represent offensive style, not effectiveness. On each axis, distance from the center represents increasing quantity (or efficiency in the case of shot selection). Read more about how they’re constructed here.
The Pelicans and Warriors are nearly identical in the quality of their shot selection, but that’s where the offensive similarities end. These two teams are near the opposite ends of the spectrum in pace and movement with the Warriors flying around the court and the Pelicans preferring to slow it down and rely on isolations and static pick-and-rolls with Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans.