NC Playoff Previews: Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks

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Apr 2, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) sets the play during the second half against the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center. The Rockets defeated the Mavericks 108-101. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

For each first round series, the staff at Nylon Calculus has put together some visual comparisons of the opposing teams featuring many of the metrics and techniques we’ve been tracking and using all season. This page features charts and visualizations comparing the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks.


Series Notes

by Justin Willard – @AcrossTheCourt

Rockets rating with Howard: 6.53

Mavericks rating with Rondo: 2.99

I’m as surprised as anyone that the Rockets ascended to the second seed after losing Parsons, Asik and Howard for much of the season. Harden gets a lot of credit for this, and he deserves most of it, but their defense was surprisingly good even with Howard off the court. Some of this is luck, however, as they had the lowest opponent 3P%.

The most glaring match-up issue I see is that if Howard gets Tyson Chandler’s in foul trouble, Dallas’ defense will be atrocious, unless you think Amare Stoudemire can shore up their problems. Dallas, in fact, has had a lot of issues since the Rondo trade, and it’s not all to do with Rondo’s problems with shooting – there was a loss in depth. And I know everyone will discuss this, but his shooting really is an issue. If he doesn’t have the ball on offense, he’s a liability; yet the offense does quite well with the ball in the hands of Ellis or Dirk. (Plus their starting lineup is the fifth worst in basketball … oops) The playoffs are all about match-ups and adjustments, so it’s up to the wizard Carlisle to figure out what to do with the square peg and the round hole.

Odds: Rockets 75.8%

(Team ratings are per 100 possessions. The ratings were calculated with ridge regression for better estimates and with one key player in/out of the game. (Playing fewer than 10 minutes counted as being out.) This means every playoff team had two variables. These numbers are used in conjunction with ratings derived from long-term RPM, as seen on fivethirtyeight.com, to calculate the odds.)


Shot Charts

by Austin Clemens – @AustinClemens2

These special editions of Austin’s NBA shot charts show offense by each team over the full season. Like other shot charts they show the volume of shots (dot size) and the FG% of the team from that spot compared to the league average (color – warmer colors are better). As a special feature for these playoff previews, these charts also use SportVU data [is this correct? I always get vantage v sportvu confused] to show how closely shots taken by each team are defended on average. On average, defenders of shots taken near the hoop are about 3 feet away from the offensive player when a shot is taken, whereas defenders of 3-point shots are usually more than 5 feet away from the shooter on average. The large transparent circles behind each dot on the chart have a radius equal to the average distance a defender is from team players when a shot is taken from that particular location. A bigger circle means defenders are farther away and suggests that the offense is generating good looks for its shooters.


Team Offense-Defense Matchups

By Krishna Narsu – @Knarsu3

These charts compare the offensive and defensive efficiency for the two squads over the course of the season. As always, lower efficiency is better for a teams’ defense.


Rotation Comparisons

by Seth Partnow – @SethPartnow & Kevin Ferrigan – @NBACouchSide

Comparisons of regular season production by Daily RAPM Estimate and True Usage components.  


TeamSPACE

by Matt D’Anna — @hoop_nerd

TeamSPACE Hunting Grounds map the clusters of repeated success for a group of players. Generally, there are two themes worth observing in any chart: overlap and size. The degree of overlap can indicate either the beauty of a fine-tuned offensive scheme, or general chaos. The ‘good’ overlap is where multiple players systematically hit from the same areas on the court; Golden State, Atlanta, and San Antonio are great examples. The ‘bad’ overlap is evidenced by mis-mashed swaths of color blending together; Boston, and to a lesser extent Cleveland and Memphis, fit this mold. Second, size matters. Typically the more precise the Hunting Grounds (smaller), the better. This type of precision represents a degree of spatial efficiency, freeing up space for other teammates activity. Notable examples include James Harden and Dirk Nowitzki.

Houston is true to form: you know what they want to do, and they always do it. I’m impressed by a couple things here. First, for all the scoring James Harden does, he’s a surgeon with his shot selection. Very disciplined. Second, Trevor Ariza (and Corey Brewer) was built for a lineup like this. Third, look at Josh Smith! True, he’s virtually the only player active in the dreaded midrange, he’s barely there! Not sure if acquiring him could have worked out any better.

Last season, there was virtually zero room to breath on the Dallas chart. The Calderon-Rondo and Carter-Parsons changeovers demonstrate more midrange (Rondo) and more precision (Parsons). While it’s certainly different, it’s tough to call this spacing better than last season’s. As Dirk’s overall midrange activity has slowed over time, his unique activity space has also been slowly invaded by Monta. In ten years, we’re going to fondly look back at Tyson Chandler has Patient Zero for the next generation of centers.


Offensive Styles

by Ian Levy — @HickoryHigh

These charts represent offensive style, not effectiveness. On each axis, distance from the center represents increasing quantity (or efficiency in the case of shot selection). Read more about how they’re constructed here.

Here we have two very similar offenses. Both adhere to a very efficient shot selection pattern. Both teams play uptempo and move the ball quickly on offense. However, you can also see that there is not a lot of off-the-ball movement by players. Each team has their players floating in specific areas on offense rather than cycling through different locations in an effort to confuse the defense.