NC Playoff Previews: Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs
February 19, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul (3) controls the ball against the defense of San Antonio Spurs guard Tony Parker (9) during the first half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
For each first round series, the staff at Nylon Calculus has put together some visual comparisons of the opposing teams featuring many of the metrics and techniques we’ve been tracking and using all season. This page features charts and visualizations comparing theLos Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs.
Series Notes
by Justin Willard – @AcrossTheCourt
Clippers rating with Griffin: 8.00
Spurs rating with Leonard: 8.82
Congratulations, LAC, you win homecourt advantage and an first round match-up versus a six seed! But you’re going up against the toughest six seed ever, with the possible exception of the 1995 Houston Rockets, and a team that happens to be the returning champions who are mostly healthy at just the right time. Chris Paul might need some 12,000 word article on his career when he’s done, explaining why it took so long for him to reach the conference finals, if he ever does. I think the best parallel is Oscar Robertson, a mercurial point guard who put up dazzling numbers but never found high-level team success until later in his career. We can’t rate players based on how many titles they have, as it’s a team game. Forget that and you can make a grievous mistake.
As good as the Spurs are, and with Leonard and Duncan on the court it’s pretty scary, the Clippers have a starting lineup that bows to no one. Of course, you’ll notice that the Spurs have the best lineup of 2015, according to b-ref, with at least 250 minutes. Duncan’s still a crucial piece and he’s a defensive player of the year candidate yet again, where he’d be the oldest ever by far if he won. But the Clippers have played their starting unit over 1200 minutes, a pretty robust sample for lineups, and they’re outscored opponents by 19 points a game. They can punch at San Antonio’s level, and it could be one of the greatest first round series ever. Splitter’s health could decide the series.
Odds: Spurs 52.1%
(Team ratings are per 100 possessions. The ratings were calculated with ridge regression for better estimates and with one key player in/out of the game. (Playing fewer than 10 minutes counted as being out.) This means every playoff team had two variables. These numbers are used in conjunction with ratings derived from long-term RPM, as seen on fivethirtyeight.com, to calculate the odds.)
Shot Charts
by Austin Clemens – @AustinClemens2
These special editions of Austin’s NBA shot charts show offense by each team over the full season. Like other shot charts they show the volume of shots (dot size) and the FG% of the team from that spot compared to the league average (color – warmer colors are better). As a special feature for these playoff previews, these charts also use SportVU data [is this correct? I always get vantage v sportvu confused] to show how closely shots taken by each team are defended on average. On average, defenders of shots taken near the hoop are about 3 feet away from the offensive player when a shot is taken, whereas defenders of 3-point shots are usually more than 5 feet away from the shooter on average. The large transparent circles behind each dot on the chart have a radius equal to the average distance a defender is from team players when a shot is taken from that particular location. A bigger circle means defenders are farther away and suggests that the offense is generating good looks for its shooters.
Team Offense-Defense Matchups
By Krishna Narsu – @Knarsu3
These charts compare the offensive and defensive efficiency for the two squads over the course of the season. As always, lower efficiency is better for a teams’ defense.
Rotation Comparisons
by Seth Partnow – @SethPartnow & Kevin Ferrigan – @NBACouchSide
Comparisons of regular season production by Daily RAPM Estimate and True Usage components.
TeamSPACE
by Matt D’Anna — @hoop_nerd
TeamSPACE Hunting Grounds map the clusters of repeated success for a group of players. Generally, there are two themes worth observing in any chart: overlap and size. The degree of overlap can indicate either the beauty of a fine-tuned offensive scheme, or general chaos. The ‘good’ overlap is where multiple players systematically hit from the same areas on the court; Golden State, Atlanta, and San Antonio are great examples. The ‘bad’ overlap is evidenced by mis-mashed swaths of color blending together; Boston, and to a lesser extent Cleveland and Memphis, fit this mold. Second, size matters. Typically the more precise the Hunting Grounds (smaller), the better. This type of precision represents a degree of spatial efficiency, freeing up space for other teammates activity. Notable examples include James Harden and Dirk Nowitzki.
This is just beautiful. I want to write a thesis on this piece of art, but I’ll refrain (for now…offseason maybe?). To quote DJ Quick, this lineup is the personification of “balance and options.” You’ll notice its a hybrid of a refined Hawks, perfect Clippers. All the overlap is precise and systematic, the spacing is downright poetic. I have to stop myself, for now.
The evolution of Blake Griffin, something Ian Levy touched on earlier this year, is interesting. He’s trending towards LaMarcus Aldridge in that regard. The tricky part is that this migration begins to overlap with Chris Paul. It isn’t too problematic though, since the other three players (Matt Barnes, JJ, and DeAndre) do an excellent job staying in their lanes. They are the perfect compliments to CP3 and Blake.
Offensive Styles
by Ian Levy — @HickoryHigh
These charts represent offensive style, not effectiveness. On each axis, distance from the center represents increasing quantity (or efficiency in the case of shot selection). Read more about how they’re constructed here.
This is another pairing with some fairly obvious stylistic differences. Both offenses are similar in shot selection and pace. Although the Spurs move the ball much more than the Clippers do, there is plenty of passing going on in both offenses. The disconnect is in player movement. While the Spurs are in constant motion off-the-ball, cutting and then pulling defenders back out to the three-point line, the Clippers tend to keep their shooters fairly stationary, spotting up around Chris Paul pick-and-rolls.